Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Fast out the starting blocks; we expect further 50s soon.
Samuel TombsUS
- Claims fell to a 20-week low due to faulty seasonal adjustment and calm weather; the firing trend is flat.
- The mix of steady layoffs and a further fall in hiring will propel unemployment upwards at a faster pace.
- Existing home sales dropped back again in August, and a significant recovery is unlikely in the near term.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazil’s COPOM raised the Selic rate to 10.75% amid rising inflation risks and economic resilience.
- The market expects further rate hikes, but we see rates on hold as economic activity is faltering.
- Argentina’s GDP continued to fall in Q2 due to Mr. Milei’s reform efforts to put the economy on track.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Ignore Malaysia’s smaller trade surplus in August, as the economy ramps up intermediate imports...
- ...The recovery in electronics exports continues to gather steam, powering manufacturing growth.
- The CBC sounds increasingly desperate in trying to rein in housing prices; an uphill task, in our view.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Fed’s 50bp rate cut increases the chance of an ECB rate cut in October, but only marginally…
- …The bar remains high for a third ECB cut next month; September core goods inflation is key.
- The EZ current account surplus has rebounded, but it will roll over in due course.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC kept Bank Rate on hold, as expected, but the 8-to-1 vote was less dovish than expected.
- The MPC signalled a gradual rate-cutting cycle, which suggests to us one cut per quarter.
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp in November and again in February.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices drop in July but should rebound as interest rates fall.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Services inflation rebounds close to the MPC’s forecast, keeping it on track to hold rates tomorrow.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Single-family activity unlikely to recover much further.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Q3 carry-over looks o.k., but survey data remains depressed.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Services inflation revised down marginally; headline to fall further in September.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Front-running a near-certain cut by the Fed later today; at least one more to come in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Front-running a near-certain cut by the Fed later today; at least one more to come in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The FOMC’s forecasts imply that slow, steady, easing will stabilize the labor market soon...
- ...But policy is not that powerful and works with long lags; the Committee will ease in 50bp steps again.
- Housing starts rebounded in August, but a further climb is unlikely in the near term.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazil — Fiscal and policy challenges
- Mexico — Judicial reforms heighten political risk
- Colombia — Political turmoil clouds the economic outlook
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Bank Indonesia surprised yesterday by starting its easing cycle, hours ahead of the Fed’s own first cut.
- We’ve added a few more rate cuts to our outlook, and now see the BI rate ending 2025 at 4.75%.
- Blame a gold rush for India’s deficit blowout in August, which masked a few key silver linings.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s August developer-funding figures improved only because of policy support, namely loans.
- Home sales remained weak in August, as the impact of the May policy support is fading.
- A long, grinding recovery is in prospect, with no sign of a change in approach from drip-fed support.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Falling energy inflation will pull headline HICP below 2% in September; we look for 1.8% year-over-year.
- Obsessing about services inflation is ‘so yesterday’; all eyes on non-energy goods in September and Q4.
- An October rate cut is back in play if core goods inflation fails to rebound in September.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Underlying services inflation pressures continue to ease, so the MPC will cut rates again this year.
- But August’s CPI inflation gives the MPC little reason to rush to cut today; it will wait until November.
- Core CPI inflation jumped to 3.6% in August, which we think was close to the MPC’s expectation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Lower rates put a floor under new home sales.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
