Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- India’s volatile gold imports corrected sharply in December, but their upward normalisation is intact.
- Total exports enjoyed a solid Q4, as the goods side revived, though services faltered heading into 2025.
- Net trade should hit Q4 GDP by 0.2pp, down from +1.5pp in Q3, due to adverse import base effects.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Every major city in Taiwan is now “impossibly unaffordable”; the housing bubble is expanding.
- The central bank is trying to dampen demand, but overly aggressive policies may create a crisis...
- …The opposite, however, would increase the risk of a more severe housing-price crash down the line.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Gold imports correct sharply—again—but their broad trend is upwards.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A genuine surprise; at least three more cuts this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A genuine surprise; at least three more cuts this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Ignore the volatility, the trade surplus is growing, slowly.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Ignore the volatility, Indonesia's trade surplus is growing, slowly
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia surprised the universal consensus for a hold this month, lowering the BI rate to 5.75%…
- …The Board is right to tolerate the rupiah’s dollar- driven slump, amid its rising GDP growth worries.
- Ignore the December collapse in the trade surplus; smoothing out the noise yields a rising trend.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Expect a quieter year for Indian WPI inflation in 2025
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- CPI fell more comfortably within the RBI’s target range in December, clearing the way for a rate cut…
- …More downside is in store for food inflation, but the upward normalisation in the core isn’t over yet.
- The rupee’s weakness of late probably has the RBI’s blessing; it’s been kept stable for far too long.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Carpet being rolled out for a February rate cut.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Carpet being rolled out for a February rate cut.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A credible pop in growth, Diwali noise aside.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A credible pop in growth, Diwali noise aside.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Indonesian sales growth should at least settle at a floor, shortly
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s 6.4% advance GDP estimate for 2024/25 is on the rosy side and includes contradictory details…
- …The slowdown isn’t over, and we can’t see how the FAE squares rising demand with falling imports.
- Retail sales in Indonesia appear to have ended 2024 ver y softly; this is oddly reassuring.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Real import demand in the Philippines was due a correction
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s export growth moderated in December, though the headline was tarnished by base effects…
- …Import growth nearly doubled to 30.4%, from 19.8% in November, pulling down the trade surplus.
- Headline inflation remained stubborn in December, at 2.1%, due to a continued rise in food inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Huge revisions put a more positive spin on Philippine sales
Oil-sensitive components drive the December rise in inflation
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Philippine inflation surprised to the upside in December, but the culprits should be temporary…
- …We still see average inflation of just 2.4% in 2025; core inflation isn’t yet making a real comeback.
- Thai CPI was softer than expected last month, and the 2025 consensus could do with a downgrade.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
