Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
Machinery capex bump cushions the unwinding of election spending in Indonesia
Fall in discretionary spending sends Singaporean sales growth back into the red
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The output price sub-indices of India’s July PMIs spike d, but it would be premature to raise a red flag.
- Indonesia’s July CPI should see inflation falling below the 2.5% target, on further food disinflation.
- We look for a small drop in ASEAN’s July PMI, as a couple of the big exporters look overstretched.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A big bounce in net goods trade will help Thailand's Q2 GDP
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s final 2024/25 budget sees a smaller 4.9%-of-GDP deficit than the 5.1% interim target…
- …But this ‘improvement’ is largely because of a better starting point and the RBI’s dividend.
- The real good news is a more realistic tax estimate and a continuation of the focus on capex.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
MALAYSIA'S AND VIETNAM’S ‘HOT’ Q2 IN CONTEXT
- …FOOD PRICE PRESSURES IN INDIA ARE REBUILDING; UGH
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Another month, another hold; we still see cuts in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Another month, another hold; we still see cuts in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Overdue crash in oil imports masks a further—welcome—rise in non-oil imports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Two-way goods trade in Indonesia rebounded robustly in Q2, mainly thanks to EM demand…
- …But the tourism recovery is still waning; expect a 0.9pp net trade lift to GDP, up from -0.2pp in Q1.
- Food price pressures in India are building again, forcing us to raise our 2024 and 2025 CPI outlook.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Likely the peak for 2024, barring any fresh shocks.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Slip in export growth should be short-lived.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
June slip in Indonesian export growth should be short-lived
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Vegetable prices are rearing their ugly head, again; industry is back to a two-track growth, this time with consumer durables racing ahead.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Vegetable prices are rearing their ugly head, again; industry is back to a two-track growth, this time with consumer durables racing ahead.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Base effects pull Philippine trade growth back down to earth
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s trade performance in June blew the consensus out of the water…
- …As export and import growth surprised hugely to the upside, thanks to the recovery in electronics.
- The Philippines’ trade deficit has been growing since the start of Q2; exports should pick up soon.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
How long will the bounce in Indonesian sales last with confidence fading?
Philippine sales growth continues to fluctuate wildly around zero
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian retail sales growth saw only a tepid rebound in May, to 2.1%, with confidence waning…
- …The only good news is that retailers’ sales expectations is finally seeing a turnaround.
- Sales momentum in the Philippines is even weaker, with no clear light at the end of the tunnel.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Should be just a temporary drop below the BoT’s target range.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
