Tokyo inflation picks up, but the BoJ's immediate focus will be on US auto tariffs
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Election result does little to lift household sentiment.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Philippine trade takes a breather after a fast start to 2025
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP looks set to grow at a mere 1% pace in Q1, following February’s weak consumption data.
- Fading pre-tariff frontrunning, however, explains the slowdown; core services spending is still rising.
- Tariffs will weigh on real income growth by less than 1%; recession remains unlikely.
Samuel TombsUS
- Banxico extends easing with another 50bp cut, citing disinflation and weakening economic activity.
- Policymakers are likely to maintain their pace near term, before gradually shifting to smaller rate cuts.
- US auto tariffs threaten Mexico’s exports, manufacturing supply chains and capex outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Don’t pay too much heed to the panic over the IDR; the current account fundamentals are sound…
- …Plus, the bad fiscal start could just be a blip and foreign investor s are steadily returning to the fray.
- The big misses in Philippine trade data for February, particularly in imports, aren’t as bad as they seem.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Tokyo inflation rose in March, due to higher goods and se vices inflation despite cooling fresh food inflation.
- April inflation is likely to jump after energy subsidies expire, while non-perishable food inflation rises.
- Still, the BoJ, focusing on the impact of higher US auto tariffs, is likely to keep the policy rate steady on May 1.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- French and Spanish inflation came in weaker than expected in March, and German joblessness rose...
- ...But consumer inflation expectations and selling price expectations are up and money supply firmed.
- The April decision by the ECB is now finely poised; a dovish March HICP could swing it for the doves.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- UK consumers are finding their feet, and likely boosted Q1 GDP growth to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter.
- Stubborn inflation pressures will keep the MPC to only two more rate cuts this year.
- But President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ hangs over the outlook, posing major risks to growth and inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Sales likely to remain in the doldrums.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Gold trade and pre-tariff stockpiling are distorting the numbers.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Money and credit data still positive on outlook for EZ economy.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Back up, but increase in Q1 will be smaller than in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Equipment investment likely to remain anemic at best.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
GROWTH HOLDS UP AND INFLATION RISES...
- …BUT US TARIFFS CAN UPEND THE OUTLOOK
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
CENTRAL BANKS FACE A COMPLEX EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT…
- …VIGILANCE AND POLICY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
THE ECB HAS ONLY ONE MORE CUT IN IT...
- ...ASSUMING JUST SMALL US TRADE-TARIFF INCREASES
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
INDIAN CONSUMPTION ON THE MEND, SLOWLY
- …US TARIFF FRONT-RUNNING SURFACES IN FEB. TRADE DATA
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Today’s PCE report likely will show a rebound in real consumption and a 0.4% rise in the core deflator.
- Threatened auto tariffs would likely raise the core price level by 0.2-to-0.4percentage points.
- Soaring gold imports imply a much smaller drag on Q1 GDP from net trade than headline data suggest.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- March IPCA-15 data show inflation rising due to temporary shocks in food and transportation costs.
- Inflation is likely to average 5.5% in Q2 before stabilising in H2, but wholesale prices signal upside risks.
- The current account deficit widened sharply, but FDI remains a positive sign, despite external noise.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
