- The 2024 volatility in Indonesian exports continued in May, this time resulting in a hefty bounce-back…
- …The overall trend is still range-bound though, and China’s uneven recovery continues to pose a risk.
- We have upgraded our current account forecast, with real import demand deteriorating further.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Deficit hit by lagged oil-price effects, which will now unwind.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Upstream core price pressures are now clearly reviving.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Food CPI in India will soon tank on base effects, but don’t underestimate the improving monthly story…
- …Inflation expectations remain unfazed, though more signs are pointing to a U-turn in core inflation.
- Average inflation should still fall to 4.6% this year, but we have raised our 2025 forecast to 4.5%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Some green shoots on food inflation; IP appears to be breaking out of its recent stagnation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Some green shoots on food inflation; IP appears to be breaking out of its recent stagnation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Bank of Thailand left its policy rate at 2.50%; dissenting votes for a 25bp cut fell to one, from two.
- Growth is the area that is most likely to disappoint, relative to the MPC’s rose-tinted expectations…
- …Its reasons for optimism are short-lived in nature; we still consider two 25bp cuts this year possible.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Indonesia’s Ramadan demand this year ends with a whimper
Malaysian retail sales growth slows in April, despite friendly base effects
We’ll swallow the Philippines' big April deficit, as imports showed signs of life
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A cut in August now certainly looks off the table.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
An RBI cut in August now certainly looks off the table
The policy-induced upswing in Thai inflation shouldn’t bother the MPC
Don’t put too much stock into the April leap in Philippine sales
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Formal dissent in the RBI grew this month, but we’ll now likely have to wait until October for the first cut.
- The base-effect and policy-driven upswing in Thai CPI should be ignored by the MPC this week.
- Taiwanese export growth disappointed in May, but not enough to derail the overall recovery.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Retail sales growth in Singapore disappointed hugely in April, falling to a new post-pandemic low...
- …We suspect that a shift to overseas spending was the main culprit, as income growth still looks strong.
- The risk of CPI re-breaching the BSP’s target range continues to wane, on fading non-core pressures.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: ASEAN’s main exporters are finally staging a revival… slowly.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
ASEAN’s main exporters are finally staging a revival… slowly
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BJP’s disappointing result in the 2024 election means the risk of coalition politics in India is back.
- The PMI for ASEAN rebounded well in May, thanks to the fragile recovery of the region’s key exporters.
- Indonesia’s softer-than-expected May CPI bolsters our dovish 2024 view on rates and inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
TAIWAN’S PUNCHY Q1 GDP IS AS GOOD AS IT’LL GET
- …ELECTION TAILWINDS IN INDONESIA’S Q1 ARE IRREPLICABLE
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Food disinflation is intensifying.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
