Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

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Global

10 September 2025 Global Monitor Dismal payrolls not enough for 50bp Fed cut next week

  • US - Payrolls warrant much looser policy, but 50bp next week is unlikely
  • EUROZONE - Swiss inflation details are dovish; SNB rate cut to -0.25% still on
  • UK - GDP likely unchanged month-to-month in July
  • CHINA+ - China’s exports lose steam on low-techs; slump in US exports persists
  • EM ASIA - Confident BNM holds fire on further easing, following July cut
  • LATAM - Mexico’s economy holds steady, but capex weakness and trade risks persist

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, August

  • In one line: A more confident uptick, with tariff clouds receding.

Global Datanote: GDP, Second Quarter, Brazil, 2025

  • In one line: Growth slows as capex falls, but services hold up. 

3 September 2025 Global Monitor ECB easing cycle is done just as the Fed's is about to begin

  • US - August payrolls likely will maintain the pressure for looser Fed policy
  • EUROZONE - ECB’s easing cycle is over; risks now tilting to rate hikes, in 2027
  • UK - Insolvencies holding steady despite the barrage of headwinds
  • CHINA+ - Chinese manufacturers tolerate tariff shifts, but small firms struggle
  • EM ASIA - BI’s urgency to cut faster since July in context; expect at least one more
  • LATAM - Banxico slows pace of easing as core inflation pressures persist

Global Datanote: Export, Korea, August

  • In one line: WDA-export growth holds up despite tariff ructions   

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, July

  • In one line: Still-robust export growth is driving the trade surplus to its highest in years.

Global Datanote: Industrial Production, India, July

  • In one line: Recovering to a four-month high, with some help from base effects.

Global Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision, August 2025

  • In one line: A less-dovish cut, but expect at least one more before the end of 2025.

Global Datanote: BoK Policy Decision, Korea, August

In one line: BoK stays put amid US pressure not to weaken currency

27 August 2025 Global Monitor Sticky inflation supports a BOJ hike in October

  • US - We think a September easing will be the first of many
  • EUROZONE - Germany is balancing on the edge of recession and recovery
  • UK - Week in review: August rate cut looks increasingly like a mistake
  • CHINA+ - Japan’s inflation elevated, with no easy cure for rice-price headache
  • EM ASIA - BI’s urgency to cut faster since July in context; expect at least one more
  • LATAM - Our LATAM team is on leave this week, publication will resume on Sep 2nd

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Resilient to the latest rise in US tariffs, despite hit to foreign orders. 

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, August 2025

In one line: Only little signs of a hit from higher US tariffs.  

Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision, August 2025

  • In one line: Acting now, while the space to do so comfortably remains available.

Global Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line:  Inflation will rise to year-end, but there’s still chance of an ECB rate cut in September. 

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independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence