In one line: Transport, hospitality and insurance are key drivers of sticky services inflation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - The FOMC is too optimistic with its unemployment forecast
- EUROZONE - Markets still underestimating the amount of SNB easing
- UK - MPC preview: leaving open the timing of the first rate cut
- CHINA+ - BoJ commits to cutting JGB-buying, with details to be revealed in July
- EM ASIA - Indian inflation heading into H2: a shift from mundane to manic
- LATAM - Brazil’s economic activity losing steam amid mounting headwinds
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: A soft start to Q2, and downside risks have increased.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: On hold, as core inflation remains sticky.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Tapping an RRR hike to cool the property market.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Global
Disinflation is back on track; expect two easings in today’s 2024 dot plot.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Some green shoots on food inflation; IP appears to be breaking out of its recent stagnation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Hit by increased food prices, due to the floods in the south.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- US - September easing remains a decent base case, despite May payrolls
- EUROZONE - Domestic political risk returns to Eurozone financial markets
- UK - Labour market data help the chances of an August rate cut
- CHINA+ - China’s exports turn the corner; on track for modest growth this year
- EM ASIA - An August RBI rate cut seems both so close and yet so far
- LATAM - Brazil’s economic momentum hits a speed bump after promising Q1
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Upside pressures will keep policymakers on the alert.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Modest core pressures point to further monetary easing this month.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A cut in August now certainly looks off the table.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
In one line: A mild cyclical upswing is now underway.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: A solid Q1, but conditions have worsened recently.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: ASEAN’s main exporters are finally staging a revival… slowly.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- US - Core PCE numbers are improving, but more progress needed for rate cuts
- EUROZONE - All set for a hawkish first 25bp rate cut by the ECB this week
- UK - Forecast review: Persistence means patience for the MPC
- CHINA+ - US tariffs on “new trio” to have limited impact on Chinese exports
- EM ASIA - The devil’s in the details of India’s consensus-beating Q1 GDP print
- LATAM - Landslide victory in Mexico gives MORENA strong political capital
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Under pressure on a sequential basis.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Food disinflation is intensifying.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
In one line: Services too hot to handle, but the trend isn’t 4%.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
