Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

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Global

Global Datanote: 20 Day Exports, Korea, June

In one line: Korea's 20-day exports rebound in June on front loading ahead of reprieve expiry

Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

  • In one line: Surprise, surprise… at least two more 25bp cuts to come by year-end.

16 July 2025 Global Monitor The EZ would fall into recession with a 30% US trade tariff

  • US -  Immigration probably will continue to add meaningfully to labor supply
  • EUROZONE - A 30% US tariff would send the EZ economy into recession in H2
  • UK -  Consumer spending to be supported by solid income growth
  • CHINA+ - China’s ‘glass half-full’ money and credit data
  • EM ASIA - BNM more worried about GDP growth than we expectedEM ASIA -  
  • LATAM - Brazil’s recovery stalls as financial and external headwinds mount

Global Datanote: CPI, India, June

  • In one line: Outright food deflation is here, as predicted.

Global Datanote: CPI, Mexico, June, 2025

  • In one line: Core pressures lingering, but disinflation resumes.

Global Datanote: PPI, China, June 2025

  • In one line: Producer deflation worsens due to weather hitting construction, a jump in renewable energy generation and trade frictions

Global Datanote: CPI, Chile, June, 2025

  • In one line: Inflation falls again; BCCh likely to cut rates.

9 July 2025 Global Monitor UK's Chancellor is between a rock and a hard place

  • US - Markets drew the wrong conclusions from June’s labor market data
  • EUROZONE - No changes to our forecasts yet, despite delay to US tariff-rate hikes
  • UK - Between a rock and a hard place sits fudging the fiscal rules
  • CHINA+ - Japan’s wages hit by plunging bonuses, as trade war bites
  • EM ASIA - Vietnamese growth to come off the boil in H2 if GDP data turn realistic
  • LATAM - Brazil’s manufacturing slumps, but mining shows resilience

Global Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, June 2025

In one line: Back above zero, but unlikely to stay there for long.

Global Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, US, June

In one line: Supply-side disruptions giving way to weak demand

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, June

  • In one line: Expect a further rise in food inflation in the July report.

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, May

  • In one line: Export growth probably will buckle again in Q3.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, June

  • In one line: Post-export-front-loading clouds continue to darken.

Global Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, June

In one line: Caixin PMI concurs with official index in showing manufacturing activity rebound

2 July 2025 Global Monitor Soft June payrolls incoming

  • US - Expect soft June payrolls, and yet another set of downward revisions
  • EUROZONE - June’s EZ inflation rise will more than reverse in July and August
  • UK - Payroll data have gone haywire; job growth is likely improving
  • CHINA+ - BoJ to sit tight as stagflation risk rears its ugly head
  • EM ASIA - Hoping we’re not jinxing it…we rescind our call for SBV cuts in 2025
  • LATAM - Banxico signals slower data-driven easing, as inflation risks persist
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independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence