Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- We expect a 50K increase in September payrolls and a 75K rise in private jobs, lifted by residual seasonality.
- The unemployment rate usually drops in September, but surveys point to a deteriorating trend.
- Growth in average hourly earnings likely was limited by a calendar quirk, but the trend is slowing too.
- Chile’s election showed right-leaning voters rallying behind Kast, giving him an advantage in the run-off…
- …While the left will be limited by its narrow base, struggling to broaden support beyond core voters.
- Q3 GDP suffered a small fall as mining disruption offset solid growth across key non-mining sectors.
- Surging gold imports are only part of the historic blow-out in India’s trade deficit in October…
- …Real import demand looks to be rocketing too, though INR depreciation should keep this in check.
- Exports weren’t as weak as their headline plunge suggests, but non-US demand is now wobbling.
- Our inflation forecasts factor in a 5% utility price cut in April and maintaining the 5p emergency fuel-duty cut.
- Rumoured Budget measures could cut 2026 inflation 40bp more than we assume, but will be hard to afford.
- The Budget will likely affect inflation little via demand, after the Chancellor ditched an income tax hike.
- AI has had a net positive impact on the labor market this year; job losses in tech have been small...
- ...While surging stock prices for AI firms have boosted households’ spending and, therefore, employment.
- Layoffs, however, likely will step up next year as AI adoption becomes more widespread.
- Brazil’s IBC-BR signals a tightening-driven slowdown, hitting industry & services; agriculture eases the pain.
- Chile’s polarised first-round election results reshape political alliances, setting the stage for the run-off.
- Peru’s BCRP held rates at 4.25%, as soft inflation and resilient activity encounter a cautious global backdrop.
- GDP growth in Thailand slumped to a fresh post-Covid low of 1.2% in Q3, due mainly to destocking…
- …A few key details were otherwise solid, including goods exports and a rebound in fixed investment.
- We still see annual GDP growth weakening to 2.0% this year and 1.8% next year.
- Japan’s Q3 GDP shrank, hit by weaker net exports, a slower inventory rise and falling residential investment.
- The government aims to secure a larger supplementary budget than in 2024, leading to bond-market worries.
- The diplomatic spat with China over Taiwan could put a 0.3pp dent in GDP growth if Chinese tourism stops.
- The Chancellor ditching an income-tax hike means more back-loaded and shakier fiscal consolidation.
- The government will also likely have to pare back its plans to cut energy utility prices by £200 per year.
- Back-loaded and smaller tax hikes reduce the need for MPC rate cuts in 2026 and raise gilt premia.
- Markets now see an even chance of a December rate cut, after a volley of hawkish Fed speeches...
- ...But no one has changed their view from September, and the official data will support the doves.
- Tinkering with tariffs on food would have only a very small impact on overall inflation.
- Inflation in Brazil fell markedly in October, driven by a stronger BRL and softer domestic demand.
- Services are the main growth anchor, while retail sales have weakened due to tight credit and uncertainty.
- The hawkish hold from the COPOM prepares markets for gradual 2026 rate cuts amid ongoing risks.
- China has been steadily strengthening its position in global maritime and logistics networks.
- It stands to benefit from an operational Northeast Passage, reinforcing its ambitions in global logistics.
- China plans to strengthen its aviation industry, making its own aircraft and expanding its airline market share.
- Q3 growth undershooting the MPC’s forecast all but seals a December rate cut…
- …But GDP will likely rebound strongly in October and November as erratic industrial drags unwind.
- Growth is far from spectacular, but it seems to be trended only a little below the UK’s potential.
- The October CPI probably will never be released, but indicators point to a mere 0.2% rise in the core.
- Pass-through from tariffs to goods prices appears to have slowed; vehicle prices still largely unaffected.
- Residual seasonality, lower health insurers’ margins and fading rent rises imply slower services inflation.
- Brazil — Rally extends as confidence builds
- Argentina — Soars on election relief, but risks ahead
- Colombia — Outlook still bright but cautious
- CPI inflation in India fell to an historic low in October, at 0.3%, as food deflation deepened…
- …Our daily food-price tracker compels us to lower our 2025 and 2026 forecasts to 2.1% and 3.3%.
- The mean-reversion up in core inflation vanishes completely if we strip out the lift from gold prices.
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 3.5% in September, but only just on the rounding.
- Utility-price and airfares base effects cut inflation, but we face unusually large two-sided risks this month.
- Quarterly public rent resets, foreign-student tuition-fee hikes and food prices could surprise our forecast.
- Continuing claims are rising only gradually, but understate the recent increase in labor market slack.
- Federal staff who took deferred resignation offers are ineligible to claim; new graduates can’t claim either.
- Capex intentions have improved lately, but remain consistent with weak underlying investment.
- Flat CPI in Chile in October confirms easing inflation momentum, allowing gradual BCCh rate cuts ahead.
- Robust trade and capex offset softer consumption, maintaining Chile’s balanced growth in Q4 and Q1.
- Fiscal fragility remains a key medium-term issue, demanding renewed consolidation efforts.
- Indonesian retail sales remain soft, particularly discretionary items, with BI cuts yet to be felt at all…
- …Confidence revived suddenly in October on job hopes, but faster income growth remains far away.
- Numerous ‘sales’ days in Malaysia boosted retail in September; e-commerce is altering the landscape.
