Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor
- Measurement issues depressed November goods prices, airline fares, rent and auto insurance....
- ...We see no evidence of a slowing in the trend in core-core services prices yet.
- But the outlook looks benign; tariffs are now mostly passed through, while wages and rents are slowing.
- Faster disinflation and anchored expectations allow a cautious rate cut in Chile, after two straight holds…
- …Improving global conditions, firmer copper prices and resilient activity support Chile’s macro outlook.
- Growth is resilient in Argentina, as exports strengthen and fiscal discipline anchors stability.
- The MPC reduced Bank Rate by 25bp to 3.75% in a widely expected five-to-four vote yesterday.
- But the meeting minutes were guarded, and Governor Bailey struck a hawkish tone on the pace of pay gains.
- We remain comfortable with our call for just one more cut to Bank Rate in 2026; it will be closely fought.
- The NFIB survey’s hiring intentions index increased in November to its highest level since May 2023...
- ...But first estimates of private payrolls have undershot its implied level by 50K on average since Q1.
- The regional Fed surveys and the Census Bureau’s biweekly business survey show weaker hiring plans.
- Brazil — Polarised political outlook
- Colombia — Markets brace for next year's election
- Peru — Stability but with political fragility
- BI kept its benchmark rate at 4.75%, in line with most expectations; the real rate is close to neutral…
- …Its tone remains dovish, and we continue to believe next year will see a tactical shift to RRR cuts.
- The BoT resumed easing with a 25bp cut; we still expect a quick follow-up cut at February’s meeting.
- EZ inflation is now thought to have held steady in November, rather than edged up.
- It has still averaged above the ECB’s forecast so far in Q4; the Bank will stand pat today.
- Our forecasts show EZ inflation rising in December before falling to a trough of 1.7% in Q1.
- An MPC interest rate cut today is beyond doubt after inflation undershot the MPC’s forecast by 20bp.
- We add an April rate cut to our forecast too, although that is a finely balanced call still…
- ...Because underlying inflation pressure remains much firmer than the headline inflation drop suggests.
- Private payrolls are no longer slowing and the jump in unemployment was mostly due to the shutdown.
- Unemployment ex-temporary layoffs, however, is above its pre-Covid norm, and wider slack is building.
- Some indicators of hiring indicators have improved recently, but layoff plans also have picked up.
- Broad-based weakness in industry and services offsets agricultural strength in Brazil…
- …Fiscal support is cushioning the slowdown; COPOM patience pushes back easing expectations to late Q1.
- Policy remains near neutral in Peru, as inflation is still anchored and growth is running close to potential.
- India’s PMIs continued to roll over in December, altogether pointing to a Q4 GDP growth U-turn…
- …The future output sub-index is going from bad to worse, adding weight to our downbeat 2026 view.
- A plunge in gold imports drove the shrinkage of the trade gap last month, but US exports are bouncing.
- The BoJ’s regional branches report steady wage-hike expectations for 2026, except at small firms.
- Japan’s December flash PMIs see manufacturing activity reviving but cost pressures mounting.
- The Q4 Tankan finds severe labour shortages, but these have yet to spur an uptick in broad wage growth.
- The EZ composite PMI slid to a three-month low but still points to GDP rising more in Q4 than Q3.
- The detail indicates stronger employment growth and so a still-tight labour market…
- ...As well as rising input costs and greater inflation pressures in 2026.
- Chaos running up to the November Budget hit hiring, but by less than payrolls suggest.
- Payrolls will be revised better, vacancies are rising, and jobless claims are down on a year earlier.
- The MPC has enough evidence to cut on Thursday, but stubborn pay growth will keep it cautious.
- Core CPI inflation likely fell to 2.9% in November, slightly below consensus, from 3.0% in September.
- Auto prices have remained unaffected by tariffs; increases in other goods prices have slowed.
- The rebound in airline fares probably has petered out; rent increases likely continue to slow gradually.
- A landslide election resets Chile’s political cycle, restoring a pro-market-reform agenda.
- Early fiscal consolidation, tax reform and deregulation will test credibility and sustain the market rally.
- The benign macro backdrop and BCCh easing create a narrow window to lift capex and potential growth.
- China’s November activity data point to slowing goods consumption but steady services spending.
- Still-falling fixed asset investment has yet to benefit from the quasi-fiscal-stimulus funding support.
- Policymakers will proceed cautiously on tackling the reasons for the weak demand, amid bright exports.
- Our spot forecasts for EZ GDP have outperformed the consensus and the ECB so far this year…
- …We have improved our EZ inflation forecasts by incorporating our new energy model.
- We misjudged the dovishness of the new SNB Chairman, affecting our forecasting track record.
- Official house prices fell in September, and we think activity will remain weak in Q4…
- ...But the private-sector house price indices are rising again, and surveyors are becoming more optimistic.
- So, we look for house price inflation of 3.0% in Q4 2026, up from 2.25% in Q4 2025.
- We think retail sales dropped by a hefty 0.7% in October, dragged down by a big fall in auto sales.
- A raft of indicators suggest that consumers’ spending will grow at a negligible pace in Q4.
- The Thanksgiving week drop in continuing claims is a seasonal fluke; the trend remains upwards.
