Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor
- Continuing claims are rising only gradually, but understate the recent increase in labor market slack.
- Federal staff who took deferred resignation offers are ineligible to claim; new graduates can’t claim either.
- Capex intentions have improved lately, but remain consistent with weak underlying investment.
- Flat CPI in Chile in October confirms easing inflation momentum, allowing gradual BCCh rate cuts ahead.
- Robust trade and capex offset softer consumption, maintaining Chile’s balanced growth in Q4 and Q1.
- Fiscal fragility remains a key medium-term issue, demanding renewed consolidation efforts.
- Indonesian retail sales remain soft, particularly discretionary items, with BI cuts yet to be felt at all…
- …Confidence revived suddenly in October on job hopes, but faster income growth remains far away.
- Numerous ‘sales’ days in Malaysia boosted retail in September; e-commerce is altering the landscape.
- The labour market report was dovish, as it showed employment falling and wage growth easing sharply.
- Weak jobs all but seal a December Bank Rate cut; we are close to forecasting another in spring 2026…
- …But surveys are stable, and we have doubts about the sharp rise in the unemployment rate.
- Taiwan’s exports hit a record $61.8B in October, up 49.7% yearly, driven by surging AI and US demand.
- Investors are more uneasy as Big Tech firms ramp up AI-related capex, shifting to debt financing…
- …A correction in tech valuations could ensue, which would culminate in a fall in Taiwan’s exports.
- Festive demand lift ed consumers out of deflation, but it won’t stick without stronger underlying demand.
- PPI deflation moderated, but deeper manufacturing deflation shows China is not fully out of the woods.
- The inflation trajectory hinges on the economic recovery, stimulus strength and anti-involution progress.
- We expect GDP to rise by 0.1% in September, boosted by solid retail sales and car registrations.
- Industrial production likely cut 8bp from GDP growth in September as a cyber attack halted autos output.
- Resilient economic activity means the MPC has little scope to cut quickly in 2026, in our view.
- The relationship between Challenger job cut announcements and actual layoffs has loosened lately...
- ...WARN filings are a better leading indicator; they also rose in October, but to a smaller extent.
- We agree with the consensus that break-even payroll growth is about 50K, but for first estimates its 100K.
- The COPOM held the Selic at 15%, reaffirming its hawkish stance amid slow disinflation and global risk.
- Inflation expectations continue to ease, but the Board stressed patience and vigilance before any rate cut…
- …That first cut is now likely delayed to January as the BCB prioritises credibility and inflation convergence.
- Vietnamese exports disappointed in October, but the payback from US front-loading isn’t one-way.
- BNM held rates as the economy remains resilient to US tariffs; the new trade deal will enhance this.
- Taiwan’s inflation ticked up in October, probably lifted by mid-autumn festival spending.
- The MPC’s new guidance leaves us comfortable reiterating our call for a December rate cut.
- Rate-setters also point to a slower pace of cuts next year as Bank Rate approaches neutral…
- ...And room for only one more cut after December, unless GDP growth turns out weaker-than-expected.
- Goods exports are struggling, as foreign firms run down the inventory they amassed earlier this year.
- Services exports are flailing too, despite strong demand for software; US politics has put off tourists.
- Data centre construction is surging, but it is too small to provide much a of boost to the sector at large.
- Brazilian Real — Slips modestly on global headwinds
- Colombian Peso — Choppy gains as carry holds
- Chilean Peso — Political clarity and BCCh caution
- GDP growth in Indonesia slipped minimally in Q3, to 5.0% from 5.1% in Q2, in line with our forecast…
- …The main cause of the dip was softer private local demand; the Q2 pop in equipment capex is fading.
- Private consumption is facing more headwinds, with real wage growth falling back into the red.
- China’s household saving rate has fallen, implying greater readiness for consumption spending...
- ...But not by enough to make up for the slump in residential sales since 2019; no wonder demand is soft.
- The October RatingDog services PMI reports efficiency gains; good for profits, but bad for jobs short term.
- We expect Budget tax hikes and spending cuts of £40B to deliver double the previous fiscal headroom.
- The devil is in the detail for the MPC, however, which likely needs to wait and see the Budget before acting.
- Firms are brushing off tax speculation; the PMI signals growth close to potential and stabilising jobs.
- The first ADP payroll estimate is among the worst indicators of both initial and benchmarked payroll data.
- The final data line up better, but only because ADP re-weights its data after benchmarking by the BLS.
- The Treasury’s method for inferring the CPI without BLS data implies a 0.36% monthly rise in October.
- Brazil’s industrial output shrank again, highlighting persistent weakness across key sectors.
- The labour market—the economy’s last major support pillar—is softening amid tariff shocks and high rates.
- We expect the COPOM to hold rates at 15% today, but easing signals are likely as disinflation gains traction.
- We expect ‘final’ payrolls to be unchanged month-to-month in October.
- The bulk of evidence points to employment growth stabilising as the hit from payroll-tax hikes fades.
- Private pay growth should slow further, encouraging MPC doves that they can cut rates in December.
- The manufacturing sector has seen little benefit from the new tariffs so far this year…
- …Recent gains in output have been limited to a few industries that dance to the beat of their own drum…
- …Industrial policies have a role to play in reviving USmanufacturing, but tariffs are a blunt tool.
