Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- The median FOMC participant expects to ease by a further 50bp this year, but several envisage less.
- The risks to the FOMC’s unemployment forecast are skewed to the upside; rates will fall to 3% next year.
- Last week’s surge in mortgage refinancing is unlikely to endure; new rates are still too high.
- Brazil — Noise driven by US tariffs and Bolsonaro fallout
- Mexico — Sovereignty, trade and security
- Colombia — Tensions rise ahead of 2026 vote
- Bank Indonesia shocked the consensus—yet again—with a third straight 25bp BI rate cut.
- Indian export growth barely moved in August, masking a bigger nosedive in shipments to the US.
- Talks with Washington have resumed amid a drop in India’s oil imports; lower tariffs in Q4 still possible.
- Hong Kong Policy Address proposes to strengthen technology ties with the mainland and boost growth.
- Japan’s annual export growth fell for the fourth straight month, but monthly momentum improves.
- BoJ will keep rates on hold this week, but we expect it to resume its rate hike cycle in late October.
- We think a rebound in inflation will now close the window on further monetary policy easing.
- Risks are asymmetric, however; the ECB will either cut or hold in the next three-to-six months.
- A near-term downside surprise in core inflation and further euro strength will prompt doves to pounce.
- Lower airfare inflation offset higher food and motor fuels, leaving CPI inflation at 3.8% in August.
- Underlying services inflation accelerated to 4.3%, from 4.2% in July, where it will stay until the spring.
- We expect CPI inflation to hit 4.0% in September—with upside risk—and then ease only slowly.
- Inflation-adjusted retail sales continued to climb in August, despite the tariffs...
- ...But consumer have endured only one-third of the tariff costs; Q4 sales likely will be much weaker.
- Manufacturing output edged up again in August, but capex is impeded by tariff uncertainty.
- Mexico’s industrial output plunged in July, with manufacturing and construction the key drags.
- Tentative stabilisation emerges as PMI improves, but trade noise and weak confidence keep risks elevated.
- Peru’s BCRP trims rates toward neutral as inflation eases and activity is resilient; risks still loom, though.
- China’s national residential market continues to fester, as policymakers stick with only targeted support.
- Tier-one city sales are rising on the back of local easing but national sales are still falling.
- More national-level support is likely to be needed to stabilise the market, notably in lower-tier cities.
- Our fair-value model for bunds points to little near-term upside to yields, due to falling US rates.
- We estimate that fiscal stimulus in Germany will add around 30bp to bund yields between now and 2027.
- Overall, we see a slow rise in bund yields to 3% by 2027, implying limited near-term upside.
- Payroll falls are easing as firms complete their adjustment to tax and minimum wage hikes.
- Q2 workforce jobs data suggests payrolls exaggerate weakness, while the unemployment rate is steady.
- A stabilising labour market with firm wage growth will keep the MPC on hold for the rest of the year at least.
- We look for a 0.5% rise in total retail sales in August, slightly above the consensus...
- ...Auto sales likely fell by about 1%, but most indicators of the control measure point to solid growth.
- Homebase data are robust for the payroll survey week; shame they are no longer a bellwether.
- Brazil’s IBC-BR fell again in July, confirming a poor start to Q3 amid broad sectoral weakness.
- Retail and services are slowing as high borrowing costs erode resilience, despite job market support.
- Copom set to hold Selic rate at 15%, signalling prolonged tight policy amid sticky inflation.
- The August bounce in India's inflation should prove short-lived; high food base effects will return…
- …The upward mean-reversion in core CPI is starting to see more cracks and waning momentum.
- We have cut our full-year average forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.3% and 4.2%, respectively.
- China’s August activity data pointed to a broad cooling, especially in domestic demand.
- Fixed-asset investment weakened further, making RMB500B in policy bank funding tools likely.
- Prospects are rising for another round of coordinated targeted stimulus, possibly at the end of September.
- The Eurozone’s nominal goods trade surplus rose at the start of Q3, as imports fell further than exports.
- The bloc’s trade surplus with the US is now half what it was before the Trump administration took power.
- Net trade in goods will likely have a neutral impact on Q3 GDP, despite the increase in US tariffs in August.
- Policy U-turns, a small growth downgrade and higher gilt yields will consume the Chancellor’s headroom.
- We expect the Chancellor to rebuild her £9.9B margin of headroom with stealth, ‘sin’ and duty hikes.
- The Budget will have a minimal impact on the MPC as the adjustments will be backloaded to 2029/30.
- Tariffs continued to lift goods prices in August; we think pass-through is now about one-third complete.
- Airline fares and accommodation services prices are unlikely to rise much further after leaping in August.
- The outsized August jump in CPI rents is just noise around a slowing trend; nothing to worry about.
- Disinflation gains traction in Brazil, but sticky core inflation will keep COPOM on high alert.
- Energy and food drive relief to the headline number, but services and labour costs still pose inflation risks.
- BCCh holds rates at 4.75% as core inflation stays firm and labour market strains delay easing path.
- The Philippines’ unemployment rate in July jumped to its highest level in close to three years, at 5.3%…
- …Adverse weather rightly was to blame, but hiring intentions are now weakening more noticeably.
- Retail sales growth in Indonesia popped in July, but the long-term outlook remains very challenging.
