Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor
- Bank of Korea remained on hold in November, citing a stronger growth and inflation outlook and a weak KRW.
- The accompanying statement dropped “easing stance” wording, amid a reduced easing bias on the MPB.
- While staying open to possible cuts, the chance of a January move is lower, likely pushed back to February.
- The acceleration in money and credit is easing, but both remain a bright spot for the EZ economy.
- The last set of business surveys for the month round up a month of largely hawkish data.
- It would take a downside surprise in inflation to push the ECB to cut in December; we doubt it will happen.
- The Budget cuts inflation in 2026 but raises it later, so there is no impact on the medium-term path for rates.
- Latest estimates of the neutral rate continue to suggest little room for the MPC to cut rates quickly.
- The Government will likely support the neutral rate with heavy debt issuance and tight immigration rules.
- Early signs suggest there could be a moderation in Malaysia’s Q4 GDP, but risks are to the upside.
- In the longer term, supply side factors are likely to weigh on growth, due to poor capital stock growth.
- That said, we see the government pulling numerous policy levers to raise this.
- China’s new promotion scheme to raise consumption issued yesterday is old wine in new wineskins.
- The scheme focuses on boosting supply, without addressing the root causes of dull consumer demand.
- Bright spots amid the gloom include rising spending on consumer services, like sports and tourism.
- The BTP-Bund spread has continued to fall in recent months, in line with our call.
- We look for it to slide to 20bp by mid-2026, its average in the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis.
- A higher Bund yield will still mean above-3% Italian yields though, keeping Rome’s debt costs high.
- A tax-and-spend budget that delayed fiscal consolidation will struggle to drive a sustained gilt rally.
- Measures to cut CPI inflation by 50bp in mid-2026 leave a December rate cut nailed on…
- …but the Budget will boost the MPC’s inflation forecasts fractionally from 2027.
- PPI and CPI data imply the core PCE deflator rose by just 0.22% in September.
- Goods price rises are slowing and retailers, especially auto retailers, are still partially absorbing the tariffs.
- The Conference Board’s consumer survey implies the labor market need more support from the FOMC.
- Steady core inflation and temporary non-core shocks reinforce Banxico’s
data-dependent easing.
- Retail sales resilience contrasts with softer sentiment, indicating consumption held up by easing inflation.
- Mexico’s recovery prospects hinge on lower rates, stable external conditions and subdued inflation.
- German Q3 growth was hit by falling consumption, but the spending details are better than the headline.
- Investment in Germany is stabilising, but we’re yet to see evidence of the much hoped-for recovery.
- Jump in government spending was mainly due to welfare spending, but borrowing is rising fast.
- The Chancellor will likely to confirm a 4.1% rise in the National Living Wage in the Budget…
- …But 18-to-20-year-olds will see a much bigger rise, while the ‘Real Living Wage’ increases 6.7%.
- The BoE now expects a 3.5% rise in pay settlements in 2025, likely supported by hikes for the low paid.
- We look for a subpar 0.3% increase in September retail sales, consistent with real spending edging down.
- Food service sales likely fell sharply, while the more reliable indicators of control sales were soft.
- Bloomberg Second Measure data, Google search volumes and hotel room occupancy signal a weak Q4.
- Robust domestic demand and fiscal expansion in Colombia are pushing economic activity above trend.
- Sticky services inflation and rising wage pressures are delaying a return to BanRep’s target.
- High real rates lend credibility, but fiscal strain and election dynamics keep policy firmly on hold.
- We think this week’s inflation data for November will continue to signal Eurozone inflation above 2% in Q4.
- The acceleration in money supply growth is easing, but it still indicates decent GDP growth.
- Early Q4 spending data are mixed: we see strength in France and Spain, softness in Germany.
- Backloaded distortionary tax hikes will lack the credibility of an income tax hike.
- Ms. Reeves will struggle to fund the biggest directly inflation reducing measures speculated about.
- Gilt yields are likely to rise after a less disinflationary and credible Budget than expected.
- The pick-up in payrolls was a by-product of the most generous September seasonal on record...
- ...The chances of a downward revision are very high; October’s report will be substantially weaker too.
- The rise in the unemployment rate is being fuelled by new entrants and layoffs; expect more to come in Q4.
- The EZ current account surplus rose marginally in September; a strong euro will bring it down in 2026.
- Foreign investors have moved away from EZ debt and piled into EZ equities over the past year.
- EZ construction output was flat in Q3, after declining in the previous quarter; Q4 will likely be a little better.
- The Government’s U-turn on hiking income tax shows that the political situation is deteriorating…
- ...So, we raise our forecast for the 10-year yield to end 2025 at 4.65%, and the 30-year at 5.45%.
- Risks to yields are upward as a potential Labour Party leadership challenge increases the pressure to spend.
- The BLS’ new data calendar means today’s employment report is make-or-break for a December easing.
- The GDPNow model is running a bit too hot; GDP growth in Q3 of about 31/2% seems more likely.
- October’s jump in WARN filings is due to new laws in Washington state; the trend is rising moderately.
