Pantheon Publications

5 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Q3 GDP stalls as tight financial conditions bite

Mining saved Brazil’s GDP from an outright fall, but weak consumption highlights the fragile backdrop…

…Services momentum is fading while industry is steady, reinforcing a commodity-heavy growth profile.

Consumption is improving, but persistent capex weakness keeps Mexico’s recovery on rocky ground.

5 December 2025 UK Monitor Collapsing jobs but stubborn inflation mean a cautious rate cut

• Collapsing job growth in the November DMP survey leaves a December rate cut nailed on.
• But the DMP was sampled at the height of Budget chaos so will likely improve in December.
• The DMP shows wage and price disinflation is over for now, so the MPC will still have to be cautious.

5 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor Recent days' data a mixed bag, but we maintain a positive view

• The EZ composite PMI was revised up in November, pointing to stronger growth in Q4...
• ...But early hard data for October are weak, and the PMI points to softness in construction.
• Switzerland’s PMIs suggest recession risk remains despite the US-Swiss trade deal.

5 December 2025 US Monitor FOMC to lower inflation forecasts after September's PCE data

• We look for a 0.22% rise in the September core PCE deflator, which would keep the inflation rate at 2.9%...
• ...This will enable FOMC participants to lower their Q4 forecast, clearing the path for easing policy again.
• Initial claims plunged because seasonal adjustment has gone amiss; labor market slack is still rising.

4 December 2025 US Monitor Private payrolls probably holding up better than ADP's data suggest

• ADP’s numbers have considerably understated the initial official estimates of private payrolls this year. 
• Reliable surveys suggest an initial private print of 75K-to-100K in November, still too soft for comfort. 
• A raft of indicators point to consumer weakness in Q4. We think spending will rise by only around ½%.

4 December 2025 LatAm Monitor FX Update LatAm currency gains amid rising 2026 risks

• Brazilian Real — Strong flows and shifting rate expectations
• Mexican Peso — Rebounding, but volatility persists
• Chilean Peso — Election relief and external tailwinds

4 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Target-range inflation in Thailand looking more and more distant

• Thailand’s November CPI prints were firmer than expected, but we still see an MPC cut this month.
• We’ve raised our 2025 forecast to -0.1%, while simultaneously cutting our 2026 call to 0.0%…
• … Another power tariff cut is scheduled for January, and underlying inflation pressures are non- existent.

4 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor SNB to stand pat next week despite fall in inflation

• Swiss inflation is now at the bottom end of the SNB’s 0-to-2% inflation target range.
•  It will likely fall further in the near term, to a trough of -0.2% or so, before rising gradually.
• The SNB will ignore sub-zero inflation; it is focused on inflation in the medium term. SNB easing is over.  

4 December 2025 UK Monitor PMI shows growth stabilising after Budget chaos

• Our models indicate that the PMI is consistent with quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of just 0.1% in Q4.
• But the upward revision from the flash PMI suggests sentiment improved as the Budget became clearer. 
• So, we see a decent chance of the PMI improving further in December.

3 December 2025 US Monitor Is the equilibrium unemployment rate increasing?

• Lower immigration, AI, tariffs and federal job cuts have potential to lift the natural unemployment rate...
• ...But firms are filling openings more easily and plan to slow wage growth, pointing to excess unemployment.
• No signs of excessive unemployment by state or by sector, indicative of a still-low equilibrium rate.

3 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's industrial weakness deepens, strengthening case for BCB easing

• Industrial output in Brazil disappointed across most categories, as tight financial conditions bite…
• …The PMI signals to ongoing weakness, though sentiment has steadied even as firms trim production.
• Benign price dynamics in Peru leave room for a final rate cut, potentially at next week’s meeting.

3 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Net trade and consumption push Taiwan's Q3 GDP even higher

• Taiwan’s Q3 GDP growth was revised up to 8.2%—a 0.6pp rise— driven by a bigger boost from net trade.
• More granular data on investment reveals its overall weakness was due to inventory drawdown.
• India’s IP and GST readings for Q4-to-date are less alarming once Diwali noise is stripped out.

3 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor November HICP seals the deal for the ECB to hold rates this month

• EZ inflation surprised slightly to the upside in November, matching our forecast.
• Energy inflation is being lifted by widening refining margins but is still low, and set to plunge in January.
• Core goods inflation is likely stabilising at just over 0.5%, with services set to drift lower into 2026.

3 December 2025 UK Monitor Rebounding manufacturing activity to drive GDP growth in October

• We expect manufacturing output to rebound in October, as car factories reopened after a cyber attack.
• Growth in consumer-facing services will ease as pre-Budget worries creep into activity.
• Underlying economic activity is still holding up close to trend, so spare capacity is emerging only slowly.

2 December 2025 US Monitor Is a 25bp easing in the funds rate next week now locked in?

• Investors see a near-90% chance of the FOMC easing  next week, back to levels before October’s meeting.
• Sometimes, the Chair moves markets during the  blackout via the WSJ, but that seems unlikely now.
• Manufacturing payrolls have fallen materially in 2025,  but likely aren’t a canary in the coalmine this time.

2 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Chile enters Q4 with firmer growth; political clarity will boost confidence

• The mining rebound and resilient domestic demand
  lift activity in Chile; the near-term outlook is benign…
• …Improving sentiment and rising capex point to firmer
  momentum heading into early 2026.
• Political clarity and expectations of fiscal discipline
  under a Kast presidency reinforce investor confidence.

2 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor ASEAN's PMI still flying, but we see a few big holes in this story

• ASEAN’s PMI rose to a 38-month high in November, but a few of the drivers are questionable.
• Indonesian exports missed badly in October, but  commodities should be more supportive next year.
• Food disinflation is back in Indonesia, dragging the  headline rate below the consensus for November

2 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor Swiss and Italian GDP recovering; their fortunes will diverge in 2026

• Italian GDP was held back in Q3 by another drop in inventories; these should rebound next year…
• ...Growth will pick up in 2026 as the outlook for net trade is also now brightening.
• In Switzerland, GDP will bounce back in Q4 from the drop in Q3, but growth will slow next year.

2 December 2025 UK Monitor Pre-Budget worries creep into the money and credit data

• Consumers added to their savings and took on less credit in October, as the Budget approached.
• Bank lending to firms continues to rise year-over-year,  but net external finance raised by PNFCs dropped.
• The housing-market data remain solid; mortgage  approvals eased only slightly and transactions rose.

28 November 2025 China+ Monitor BoK signals end of easing cycle, as it raises growth and inflation outlook

• Bank of Korea remained on hold in November, citing a stronger growth and inflation outlook and a weak KRW. 
• The accompanying statement dropped “easing stance” wording, amid a reduced easing bias on the MPB.
• While staying open to possible cuts, the chance of a January move is lower, likely pushed back to February.