Pantheon Publications

11 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor Our nowcasts are in line with our forecasts for the big four

• The French and Spanish economies are losing pace in early Q4, according to the hard data.
• Italian data for October were weak, but carry-overs suggest a better Q4 than Q3 anyway.
• The spike in German wage growth was likely due to one-offs; it will pull up the EZ total.

11 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Equity Update November records, and cautious upside in 2026

• Brazil — Bull phase matures amid policy scrutiny
• Mexico — Underlying support holding
• Chile —  Testing resistance ahead of run-off election  

11 December 2025 UK Monitor MPC preview: cutting rates, and leaving the door open to one more

• We expect the MPC to vote five-to-four to cut Bank Rate at its meeting on December 18.
• Hawks will likely note supply-side weakness, and that the Budget raises medium-term inflation a little.
• The MPC will need to change its guidance for gradual further cuts as it approaches neutral.

11 December 2025 US Monitor Expect a brief skip in the Fed's easing cycle, not a long hiatus

The dots imply three regional Fed presidents who will
vote in 2026 disagreed with this meeting’s easing...

...But we reckon all the permanent voters expect to
ease in 2026; labor data will trigger March action.

Year-over-year growth in the ECI was stable at 3.6%
in Q3, but leading indicators signal a sharp fall soon. 

10 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Inflation uptick signals caution, but Banxico still moving towards easing

• Temporary price shocks lifted headline inflation in Mexico, but underlying pressures are modest…
• …Ongoing tariff risk and agricultural volatility keep the inflation risk balance tilted slightly to the upside.
• Inflation is improving in Brazil, but fiscal risk and tight job conditions will keep policymakers cautious.

10 December 2025 UK Monitor Labour market preview: Budget chaos to hit jobs, but pay stubborn

• We expect ‘final’ payrolls to fall by 13K month-to-month in November, as Budget worries hit jobs.
• The headline LFS unemployment rate will hold at 5.0% in October, as August’s single-month rise corrects.
• Pay growth to slow in October, but wage gains look set to stabilise over the coming 12 months.

10 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor Is the German economy about to take off? Early Q4 data suggest so

• German trade figures for October add to the run of positive figures for early Q4. 
• Our nowcast model suggests we are right to look for an increase in GDP in Q4 after stagnation in Q3. 
• Risks remain, however, as leading indicators point to renewed weakness in goods trade in November.

10 December 2025 US Monitor FOMC likely will signal a Q1 pause, but only tentatively

• Investors already expect a two-meeting hiatus in the easing cycle; the FOMC will not signal a longer wait.
• Recent data surprises have reinforced the case for easing; much more data will be available in January.
• We expect 75bp of easing in 2026, but fiscal policy and FOMC personnel changes cloud the outlook.

10 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's export growth hits 56%; is millennium-high GDP growth next?

• Taiwan’s exports exploded by 56% in November, far above expectations, driven by AI server demand…
• …We are now upgrading our Q4 GDP growth forecast to 12.0%, the highest this millennium.
• Philippine sales volumes continue to slump; only so much borrowing and remittances can do.

9 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnam's exports continue to cool on US payback, but Q4 looks solid

• Export growth in Vietnam disappointed again in November, as US shipments continue to flail…
• …Overall downside risks are receding though, and the Q4 data point to still-healthy GDP growth.
• Inflation in Taiwan eased sharply in November to 1.2%, but purely due to high base effects.

9 December 2025 US Monitor Weaker labor demand is more than offsetting the immigration hit

• Immigration has slowed sharply this year, but the labor force likely still is growing, slowly.
• The recent upward creep in unemployment implies labor demand has slowed by more than supply.  
• Higher unemployment will squeeze wage growth and keep the pressure on the FOMC to continue easing.

9 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor German data suggest EZ industry started Q4 on a strong footing

• German industry enjoyed a strong start to Q4 and points to a solid October for EZ industry. 
• French and German construction data suggest EZ construction also had a decent October. 
• The first investor sentiment gauge for December, while subdued, still implies upside risk to EZ GDP.

9 December 2025 UK Monitor CPI preview 1: Slowing to 3.5% as food prices drop

• We expect CPI inflation to drop to 3.5% in November, from 3.6% in October.
• A month-to-month fall in food prices and base effects from duty hikes in 2024 will drag inflation lower.
• Our forecast for headline CPI inflation in November sees it 10bp higher than the MPC expects.

9 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Inflation softens slightly in Colombia, but risks remain tilted upwards

• Food deflation softened Colombia’s inflation, but sticky services and indexation are delaying disinflation.
• A widening external deficit and volatile financing flows underscore Colombia’s rising vulnerabilities.
• Minimum-wage pressures and firm domestic demand reinforce BanRep’s high-for-longer policy stance.

5 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Q3 GDP stalls as tight financial conditions bite

Mining saved Brazil’s GDP from an outright fall, but weak consumption highlights the fragile backdrop…

…Services momentum is fading while industry is steady, reinforcing a commodity-heavy growth profile.

Consumption is improving, but persistent capex weakness keeps Mexico’s recovery on rocky ground.

5 December 2025 UK Monitor Collapsing jobs but stubborn inflation mean a cautious rate cut

• Collapsing job growth in the November DMP survey leaves a December rate cut nailed on.
• But the DMP was sampled at the height of Budget chaos so will likely improve in December.
• The DMP shows wage and price disinflation is over for now, so the MPC will still have to be cautious.

5 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor Recent days' data a mixed bag, but we maintain a positive view

• The EZ composite PMI was revised up in November, pointing to stronger growth in Q4...
• ...But early hard data for October are weak, and the PMI points to softness in construction.
• Switzerland’s PMIs suggest recession risk remains despite the US-Swiss trade deal.

5 December 2025 US Monitor FOMC to lower inflation forecasts after September's PCE data

• We look for a 0.22% rise in the September core PCE deflator, which would keep the inflation rate at 2.9%...
• ...This will enable FOMC participants to lower their Q4 forecast, clearing the path for easing policy again.
• Initial claims plunged because seasonal adjustment has gone amiss; labor market slack is still rising.

4 December 2025 US Monitor Private payrolls probably holding up better than ADP's data suggest

• ADP’s numbers have considerably understated the initial official estimates of private payrolls this year. 
• Reliable surveys suggest an initial private print of 75K-to-100K in November, still too soft for comfort. 
• A raft of indicators point to consumer weakness in Q4. We think spending will rise by only around ½%.

4 December 2025 LatAm Monitor FX Update LatAm currency gains amid rising 2026 risks

• Brazilian Real — Strong flows and shifting rate expectations
• Mexican Peso — Rebounding, but volatility persists
• Chilean Peso — Election relief and external tailwinds