Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Latin American trade balances have improved amid currency weakness and commodity-price rebounds.
- Brazil, Chile, Peru and Argentina are posting trade surpluses; deficits narrow in Colombia and Mexico.
- Regional economic stabilisation efforts are leading to results in external trade accounts, but risks remain.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Headline inflation in Singapore fell sharply in June, mainly benefiting from lower COE prices...
- ...But the stickiness of core inflation should keep the MAS from loosening policy for the rest of 2024.
- Taiwanese retail sales growth picked up in June, but weak real wage growth is clouding the H2 outlook.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Q2 GDP data due next week will likely show a repeat of the Q1 figures in Germany, Italy and Spain…
- ...while GDP growth in France has probably doubled, to 0.4%, as services spending rocketed.
- So, we now think EZ GDP rose by 0.4% on the quarter, after 0.3% in Q1, 0.1pp higher than previously.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The wide current account deficit reflects elevated fuel import costs and weak investment income.
- Neither factor is likely to improve in the near future, so we expect the large current account deficit to persist.
- That will hold sterling back, as will the weakest international investment position in 37 years.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- All bets are off for November, so it makes little sense to change macro forecasts at this point.
- The further fall in pending home sales in May points to a steep decline in existing home sales in June.
- We expect a weaker labor market and ongoing lack of supply to mean sales remain subdued for some time.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Mexican economy sent positive signals in May amid domestic political uncertainty and global risk.
- The service and construction sectors drove May’s growth; retail sales reflect an economic deterioration.
- Election-linked fiscal stimulus will wane; high rates and political risk are clouding the economic outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The PBoC yesterday took markets by surprise with a 10bp policy rate cut to support the economy.
- Policymakers are prioritising growth support after the disappointing Q2 GDP outturn.
- President Xi’s comments confirm the ‘advanced manufacturing first’ reform strategy.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- We’re flying half-blind on Q2 GDP data in Germany, but we’re lifting our forecasts slightly, all the same.
- Construction investment was a drag on growth in Q2, but consumers’ spending likely rebounded.
- Our forecasts for Germany for the rest of 2024 see domestic demand now rebounding.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves hinted she would accept 5.5% public-sector pay rises this year.
- We also expect Ms. Reeves to raise government borrowing by £22B in 2029/30 in the Autumn Statement.
- Higher public-sector pay rises than expected will have only a minor effect on the interest rate outlook.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Equipment investment likely leapt by about 7% in Q2, driven by surging transport and computer spending...
- ...But these components are volatile; high borrowing costs will weigh on capex unrelated to the AI boom.
- The jump in jobless claims was due to auto plant closures and Hurricane Beryl, but the trend is rising too.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Latin American recovery faces headwinds as the US presidential election looms large on the horizon.
- Mr. Trump’s potential return to power threatens to disrupt LatAm economies and trade relations.
- Mexico is the most directly exposed, and Brazil the least vulnerable, to a potential Trump presidency
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Malaysian headline export growth slowed in June on weaker re-export and electronics growth…
- …Adverse base effects dominated the headline damage though, masking a monthly improvement.
- The electronics recovery and stronger commodities exports should support headline growth in H2.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The September meeting is “wide open” according to Ms. Lagarde; markets see it differently.
- Easing inflation, softening wages and falling profit margins should take a September cut over the line…
- …But we are now less certain on a cut than we were before; all eyes on ECB “sources” in coming days.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The headlines from yesterday’s labour-market data will be music to the MPC’s ears…
- …They show slowing private-sector pay growth and signs of a continued gradual rise in unemployment.
- But the MPC must be careful; job growth is bouncing back, and AWE will likely be revised up.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The manufacturing downturn is over, but growth in output in the second half of this year will be sluggish.
- High mortgage rates and excess new home inventory suggest single-family housing starts will fall further.
- We look today for a pick-up in initial jobless claims, but the data are prone to unpredictable swings in July.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil — Senate grapples with tax-break dilemma
- Mexico — President-elect appoints her cabinet
- Chile — Boric navigates pension and energy reforms
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Non-oil domestic export growth in Singapore ended H2 on a disappointing note…
- …As electronics and non-monetary gold exports slumped, even as intermediate goods rose.
- Electronics exports look unlikely to regain May’s high, but H2 should still see a growth recovery.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s residential sales are staging a modest and narrowly based revival, thanks to policy easing.
- But prices are still mostly falling, and the recovery is fragile given high housing inventories.
- A drawn-out and bumpy rebound is still the most likely scenario, gradually limiting the drag on growth.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Inflation in the Eurozone was little moved in June; it will probably hold steady in July.
- Upside risks from services and energy now loom for EZ inflation but we think September’s rate cut is safe.
- Our forecasts point to a Q4 rebound in core inflation; will the ECB look through this and cut in December?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- June’s services inflation strength supports our call for the MPC to wait until September to cut rates.
- It’s a close call, as an erratic surge in hotel prices linked to music events boosted services inflation.
- We expect headline CPI inflation to rise to 2.2% in July and 2.9% in November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
