Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Mexico’s inflation uptick in June signals caution from Banxico; the next rate cut is likely delayed to August.
- Rising non-core inflation and MXN volatility challenge Banxico’s monetary policy stance.
- Brazil’s foreign investment inflows show resilience despite economic challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Headline inflation in Singapore rose in May, as higher COE prices pushed up transport inflation…
- …But the real story is core inflation staying at 3.1% for a third straight month, due to sticky services.
- The Taiwanese retail outlook looks weak for now, but the likelihood of stronger wage growth has risen.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Korea’s 20-day exports continued their uptrend in June, thanks to base effects and chip demand.
- Exports to the US are soaring, while shipments to China rose modestly; but the EU market is still weak.
- Export value growth is outpacing volume growth, thanks to rising semiconductor prices.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- German surveys turned south in June, but don’t write off the idea of a rebound in growth just yet.
- Early hard data suggest GDP rose again in Q2, but a fall in construction will weigh on growth.
- Leading indicators tentatively hint at a bottom in German investment, but the rebound will be slow.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Government borrowing forecasts are already based on GDP growth accelerating.
- The next government needs to boost growth just to fund implausibly weak Budget spending plans.
- Tax receipts will fall £30B a year below forecasts if productivity and participation match recent trends.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Falling hirings and rising firings are a toxic combination; job growth looks set to slow sharply.
- May building permits suggest residential construction spending is falling at a 10% annualized pace.
- Existing home sales likely were unchanged in May; Fed rate cuts will facilitate only a sluggish recovery.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s COPOM delivered a hawkish hold, prioritising anchoring inflation, and restoring credibility.
- Chile’s central bank continued gradual rate cuts amid inflation concerns and improving economic activity.
- Both Banks will face an improved global scenario by year-end, broadening their policy manoeuvrability.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Malaysia’s export growth surprised to the upside in May, thanks to a sharp rise in electronics exports…
- …This more than compensated for a fall in commodity exports and a drag from re-exports.
- Adverse base effects aside, electronics exports still has more fuel in the tank for a further recovery.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng on Wednesday hinted the Bank is likely to start bond trading.
- The definition of M1 will probably be broadened, after the dramatic plunge in May.
- The Bank expects credit growth to remain slow, given China’s changing economic growth model.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The SNB cut rates for the second straight meeting, and lowered its inflation forecasts...
- ...We look for another 50bp-worth of rate cuts this year, more than financial markets
- expect.
The Bank will have to match ECB cuts to prevent a significant appreciation of the CHF and deflation.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC voted seven-to-two to keep interest rates on hold, as expected.
- The minutes of the meeting give the strong impression that the MPC is itching to cut rates.
- We stick to our call that the MPC will wait until September, but August is very much live.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Rent rises for new tenants have slowed sharply; the feared catch-up in CPI rent inflation is unlikely.
- We expect annualized CPI housing inflation to slow to 3-to-4% over the next few quarters.
- Q2 consumption is on course for a modest 2%, similar to Q1, after May's lacklustre retail sales data.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil — Lula’s political skills put to the test
- Mexico — Sheinbaum’s judicial reform rattles markets
- Argentina — Milei’s uphill battle, despite approval
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The 2024 volatility in Indonesian exports continued in May, this time resulting in a hefty bounce-back…
- …The overall trend is still range-bound though, and China’s uneven recovery continues to pose a risk.
- We have upgraded our current account forecast, with real import demand deteriorating further.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BTP-Bund spread has risen in line with French spreads; it will increase further but then fall to 100bp.
- France and Italy are in an EDP, no surprise here; any new French government has limited spending room.
- Political uncertainty will keep the EURUSD below 1.10 for now, but 1.18 by year-end is a decent bet.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- CPI inflation returned to the 2.0% target in May, for the first time since July 2021…
- …But CPI services inflation overshot the MPC’s forecast by 0.4pp, more than the 0.3pp miss in April.
- So, we push back our call for the first MPC rate cut to September, from August previously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- It’s not often that a growth figure of -0.1% brings joy, but it did in the case of Singapore’s May exports...
- ...We found much to celebrate, as semiconductor exports are finally showing signs of life.
- We still expect the recovery in exports to be gradual but now see stronger signs of its likely durability.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s credit grew in May for the first time in six months, as government-bond issuance surged.
- Home-loan demand was still feeble, though the data are clouded by existing-mortgage repayments
- May M1 posted a record dive, as businesses shifted money after, in effect, a regulatory deposit-rate cut.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Inflation in the Eurozone was uncomfortably hot in May, but 2% over the summer is still a good bet.
- Surveys signal downward risks for services inflation, but sports events are upside risks over the summer.
- We think the ECB will cut its policy rate by 25bp in September, December and March.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- House-price inflation has slowed as rising mortgage interest rates have deterred buyers…
- …But the typical two-year mortgage rate will drop 50bp by year-end if market pricing of rate cuts is right.
- We expect house prices to regain momentum and rise 3% year-over-year in December 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
