Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Energy inflation likely will be little affected by Milton and Helene, food inflation will rise slightly eventually.
- But the case for a marked rise in core inflation is pretty slim, given the historical record.
- The main exception for October probably is the risk of a jump in prices for lodging away from home.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Colombia’s economic recovery continues, but sector disparities highlight underlying vulnerabilities.
- Retail sales offset weak manufacturing output; inflation and political uncertainty pose risks.
- BanRep likely will cut rates further at upcoming meetings but has no need to accelerate the pace.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chinese banks cut both LPRs by 25bp yesterday, in a sign of support for sentiment and demand.
- But the housing minister’s new demand-support policy fell well short of similar measures in 2015.
- The overall residential market has a long way to go, though tier-one markets are showing signs of life.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- EURUSD won’t make it to 1.15 by year-end, but we still think it will get there, eventually, in H1 2025.
- Our inflation, interest rate and GDP forecasts signal upside risks for EURUSD from its current level…
- …But the trend in political uncertainty points to downside risk to this call.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect the Chancellor to raise government investment by £24B in 2028/29 in the Budget.
- Ms. Reeves will change the fiscal rules to allow more borrowing to fund the extra investment.
- We expect the Chancellor to target public sector net liabilities falling relative to GDP.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
New residential construction likely to flatline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Construction went back into recession in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: An inevitable correction; further softness ahead.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line:Retail sales defy the rain to rise in September.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
China picked up in Q3, but GDP growth will still need to double q/q in Q4 to get close to full-year target
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Sentiment improving, but mortgage rates remain too high for demand to recover materially.
Samuel TombsUS
Bouncing back after a poor H1, but Q3’s momentum will not be sustained.
Samuel TombsUS
- Liquid assets matter more for spending than total wealth; most households now hold less than usual.
- The top 20% of the income distribution still has ample liquid assets, but threats to their income loom.
- We see a few factors preventing lower rates from providing a big boost to residential construction.
Samuel TombsUS
- Chile’s central bank cut by a steady 25bp, despite choppy external conditions.
- Subdued inflation pressures and sluggish economic activity point to further easing, to neutral…
- …But volatile external trends, potentially hitting the CLP and fiscal accounts, are a key threat.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- An overdue revival in manufacturing drove almost all of Singapore’s hot advance Q3 GDP surprise…
- …But this may be a one-off, as export growth likely will cool soon; the construction outlook is still solid.
- Adverse export base effects should see trade hitting India’s Q3 GDP; we’ll be downgrading our 6.4% call.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s Q3 GDP growth rose from Q2 but still needs to double in Q4 to get close to the full-year target.
- Fiscal stimulus policies, via government investment and auto trade-ins, spurred activity in September.
- Additional support is needed for China to restore inflation in the still-falling GDP deflator in Q3.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The ECB's Bank Lending Survey points to looser lending standards and rising demand for credit...
- ...supporting our view that growth in investment and household consumption will turn a corner soon.
- Nowcast models for Q3 GDP point to downside risks to growth; we think they're misleadingly negative.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Surprisingly strong retail sales in September suggest consumers are shrugging off Budget uncertainty.
- Weather and unfavourable seasonals hit September sales, so the trend is better than the headlines.
- Real wage growth and interest rate cuts will help consumer spending support GDP growth in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Boeing strike weighs on an already struggling sector.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Helene and strikes obscure the underlying trend.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
