In one line: Solid rise in industrial output, but net trade remains subdued.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- US - February payroll growth was solid, but a slowdown looms this spring
- EUROZONE - A look on the bright side for GDP growth in the Eurozone
- UK - CPI preview: on the cusp of 3.1%, as core inflation ticks up
- CHINA+ - Premier Li announces step-up in fiscal support; still room for more
- EM ASIA - Ignore Vietnam’s first trade deficit in years; US tariff front-running is here
- LATAM - Trade, inflation and economic activity risks under Trump 2.0
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- High interest rates and global demand weakness are weighing on Brazil’s industrial production.
- Persistent inflation pressures challenge Colombia’s BanRep, delaying rate cuts and stifling growth.
- High indexation and labour costs will keep inflation above the Bank’s target in 2025.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Services production was up sharply in Q4, thanks to continued strength in IT services.
- Surveys remain positive on the outlook for services, and the sector will lead the increase in GDP in Q1.
- Our nowcast model is looking ugly, but we reiterate our call for a pick-up in EZ GDP growth, for now.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Mexico’s inflation is edging higher on base effects, but underlying trends remain favourable for Banxico.
- Chile’s disinflation resumed in February after an electricity-tariff shock, but BCCh is likely to stay cautious.
- Policy easing will face headwinds from the tariff noise, commodity prices and currency movements.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Taiwan’s export growth really accelerated in February and was almost double consensus…
- …Driven by strong growth in exports to the US, with some recovery in demand from China.
- Headline inflation eased because of Lunar New Year base effects; food and housing remain stubborn.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- China’s CPI fell more than the market expected, dragged down by weak food and services inflation.
- PPI deflation eased slightly; NDRC announced a cut to steel production and measures to curb ‘Nei Juan’.
- Japan’s full-time regular base pay growth hit a 32-year high, giving the BoJ confidence to normalise rates.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The range of economic outcomes in the Eurozone is widening; be ready for whiplash in the surveys.
- High-stakes negotiations between the EU and the US in Q2, on tariffs, Ukraine, NATO and Greenland.
- Mixed economic data in Germany; is industrial production finally rebounding?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Raising UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP will have little effect on growth or the Bank of England.
- We expect the government eventually to go further, raising defence spending to at least 3.0% of GDP.
- The resulting higher neutral rate means we see Bank Rate at 4.0% by end-2026, up from 3.75% previously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
A snapshot of a prior age, before the shift in federal government policies undermined confidence.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Core pressures subdued as demand cools.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Core pressures subdued as demand cools.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Disinflation resumes as temporary shocks subside.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Disinflation resumes as temporary shocks subside.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Revised up thanks to a solid showing from domestic demand.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
