Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

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Daily Monitor

28 February 2025 US Monitor January's drop in real spending will fuel worries about the outlook

  • Real consumption likely fell by about 0.2% in January; adverse weather played a role... 
  • ...but the sharp fall in confidence points to a sustained rise in the saving rate back above 4%.
  • Services sector investment intentions are also losing their shine amid renewed political uncertainty. 

Samuel TombsUS

28 February 2025 LatAm Monitor Mexico's external accounts and labour market strong, for now

  • Mexico’s external accounts are still healthy, but thanks to a solid H1 2024; risks emerged in Q4.
  • Trade uncertainty likely will deter new investment, particularly in H1; remittances will face volatility.
  • The labour market remains strong, at face value, but signs of weakening are becoming clearer.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

28 February 2025 Eurozone Monitor Swiss economy growing solidly despite weakness in the Eurozone

  • Swiss GDP rose by 0.5% on the quarter in Q4, much better than the measly 0.1% growth in EZ GDP. 
  • Growth will slow, falling in line with that in the EZ, as net trade drags on GDP and spending growth slows. 
  • The US President has fired another tariff threat at the EU, but we are still in waiting mode.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 February 2025 UK Monitor Chancellor will meet her fiscal rule by cutting spending

  • Higher interest repayments and lower tax receipts will increase forecast government borrowing.
  • We estimate that the Chancellor’s £8.9B headroom against her fiscal rules has been wiped out.
  • We expect the Chancellor to respond on March 26 with back-loaded public spending cuts.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

27 February 2025 US Monitor Surveys overstate the coming rise in CPI core goods inflation

  • CPI core goods inflation will rise to 2% soon, from zero, if the latest manufacturing surveys are right...
  • ...But we see little sign of cost pressures besides the China tariffs, which at most entail a 1pp uplift.
  • January headline durable goods orders likely were strong, but we see renewed weakness ahead.

Samuel TombsUS

27 February 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor BoT front-loads its second cut; we still expect a final 25bp move in Q2

  • The BoT surprised this month, resuming its easing with a 25bp cut, against the consensus for a hold…
  • …We expect one—final—cut in Q2, as rising GDP growth and inflation should shortly reverse course.
  • Taiwanese retail sales growth jumped in January, but the underlying story remains weak.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

27 February 2025 Eurozone Monitor Will the saving rate restrict spending in Q1? We doubt it

  • EZ consumers’ spending likely rose by 0.4-to-0.5% in Q4, and we look for the same in Q1. 
  • We still think a stabilisation in the saving rate will underpin consumption growth this year. 
  • Consumer confidence data point to a sticky saving rate, but are an unreliable guide.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 February 2025 UK Monitor Retail sales recovering after their pre-Budget stumble

  • Retail sales volumes were trending up at a 2.2% monthly annualised rate until the October Budget.
  • Falling UK-specific policy uncertainty has allowed retail spending to rebound from the autumn stumble.
  • The BDO industry survey shows non-food retail sales rising at the fastest rate in two years.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

26 February 2025 US Monitor The manufacturing recovery priced-in by markets is unlikely to arrive

  • Industrial stocks have discounted the recovery in manufacturing suggested by recent surveys...
  • ...But we think this apparent upturn reflects a rush of pre-tariff activity that will be short-lived.
  • February’s Conference Board survey provided more evidence of consumer gloom. 

Samuel TombsUS

26 February 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's inflation spikes on electricity tariffs but will stabilise soon

  • Inflation in Brazil rose less than expected in February, despite a spike in electricity tariffs.
  • Weakening domestic demand will keep inflation pressures in check, but a range of issues remain.
  • Mexico’s external accounts are under control, but both external and domestic issues cloud the outlook.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

26 February 2025 China+ Monitor BoK seizes opportunity to cut rates amid KRW calm before tariff storm

  • The Bank of Korea cut rates yesterday, as widely expected in the market, given currency stability.
  • Anther two cuts are likely, though we see a rising case for three, given domestic political and trade-war risks.
  • China’s bond yield uptick likely reflects improved sentiment, but that rests on fragile ground.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

26 February 2025 Eurozone Monitor What to make of wild swings in German inventories and net trade?

  • Huge volatility under the hood of German Q4 GDP; inventories and net trade are key for H1. 
  • We see full-year 2025 growth of 0.5% in Germany, lower than previously but above consensus. 
  • EZ negotiated wage growth retreated in Q4, after the one-off-related jump in Q3; further falls are likely

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 February 2025 UK Monitor Higher utility prices will help drive inflation to 3.7% in September

  • Ofgem’s 6.4% hike to the utility price cap from April is 0.8pp higher than the MPC assumed.
  • The news would boost the MPC’s inflation forecast by 3bp, leaving it unchanged to one decimal place.
  • We continue to expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.5% in April and 3.7% in September. 

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

25 February 2025 US Monitor How hard will DOGE hit the labor market, and when?

  • The total federal government payroll probably is on course to be around 200K smaller by October.
  • Lost incomes and greater uncertainty point to a bigger 300K total hit to aggregate payroll growth.
  • Monetary policy still is meaningfully restrictive, despite the pick-up in M2 growth.

Samuel TombsUS

25 February 2025 LatAm Monitor Mexico's inflation subdued, but trade risks are looming

  • Core inflation is under control, allowing Banxico to eye a 50bp rate cut, but trade tensions loom.
  • The benign February inflation report reinforces the dovish stance, yet US tariffs could cloud the outlook.
  • In Argentina, Mr. Milei’s austerity is keeping the fiscal recovery on track, but trade tensions are rising.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

25 February 2025 China+ Monitor Korean export outlook still based on AI-chip shipments

  • Korean exports slowed in February, except to Asia ex-China manufacturing hubs.
  • Auto exports benefited from front-loading ahead of a likely US auto tariff hike; chip exports should rebound.
  • President Trump’s investment restriction memo is a bargaining chip ahead of trade talks with China.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

25 February 2025 Eurozone Monitor The establishment in Germany wins one last chance to get it right

  • The failure of FDP and BSW to reach 5% paves the way for a CDU/CSU and SPD coalition in Germany. 
  • Germany’s new government has its work cut out; fiscal reform and defence are at the top of the list. 
  • EZ inflation rose in January, but a sharp fall in energy inflation will pull the headline down in February. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 February 2025 UK Monitor Three reasons the outlook is better than GfK's saving balance indicates

  • Households say that now is almost as good a time to save as during the 2008 financial crisis.
  • But we are not worried, because saving intentions have been a very poor consumer-spending indicator.
  • Confidence in personal finances is solid, and major purchase intentions signal solid retail volumes growth.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

21 February 2025 US Monitor Is January's bigger core CPI-PCE inflation gap here to stay?

  • The core CPI-PCE inflation gap likely increased to 0.7pp in January; the relatively big gap will last.
  • Tariffs and rising auto insurance premiums will boost the CPI more than the PCE deflator. 
  • Existing home sales probably dropped in January, marking the start of a sharp fall in Q1 overall.

Samuel TombsUS

21 February 2025 LatAm Monitor Mexican retailers face growing headwinds; Peru's economy resilient

  • Mexican retail sales stagnated in Q4, with high inflation and weak remittances dampening consumption.
  • The labour market remains resilient, but weak job creation signals risks to economic momentum.
  • Peru’s growth momentum slowed in December, but the outlook is positive, assuming no tariffs.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

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