- Indonesian export growth weakened in September, highlighting the limits of the commodities boost…
- …This price lift is also fading on the import side, increasingly exposing sluggish real import demand.
- We see the current account deficit at 0.8% of GDP this year, and trade should hit Q3 GDP by 0.2pp.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Healthcare and education payrolls together are nearly one million below their pre-Covid trend path...
- ...But healthcare job postings have fallen sharply; S&L governments lack funds to hire many more teachers.
- Consumers perceive the highest chance of missing a debt payment since April 2020; lenders will take note.
Samuel TombsUS
- BCRP held interest rates steady, despite the recent improvement in inflation and economic uncertainty.
- Global geopolitical noise and unfavourable base effects have pushed policymakers to the sidelines.
- Mexico's industry is struggling amid construction issues and weak manufacturing demand.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- EZ car production remains well below pre-pandemic levels and is still facing headwinds…
- ...Demand is subdued, and new emissions standards come into effect in 2025.
- The sector will stay on the back foot without a push to innovate, most notably to develop cheaper EVs.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The official labour-market data tell a comforting story of improving labour supply and falling wage growth.
- But the LFS data are too unreliable to take seriously, and AWE seems to exaggerate the slowdown in pay.
- The MPC has enough to cut rates in November, but the data fog will restrict easing to once per quarter.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: China export growth strategy faces challenges in H2, signalling growing need for domestic stimulus.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s insufficient demand and over capacity continue to weigh on producer prices
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's deepening deflation fears highlight the need for greater fiscal stimulus
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: The Bank of Korea cuts rates for the first time in four and a half years
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Korea’s resilient export growth continues on a working day adjusted basis in September.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: The Bank of Korea cuts rates for the first time in four and a half years
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's FX reserves rose more than expected in September
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s manufacturing downturn persists amid weak demand, while non-manufacturing activity stagnates
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s manufacturing downturn persists amid weak demand
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Tokyo inflation dips in September as energy subsidies reinstated; Underlying inflation remains resilient
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's industrial profit growth sees sharpest fall in 18 months; Japan's Tokyo CPI dips as energy subsidies reinstated
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Korea 20-day export growth remained resilient on a WDA basis
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Korea 20-day export growth remained resilient on a WDA basis
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Weaker car shipments and US demand drag Japan’s exports in August.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Weaker car shipments and US demand drag Japan’s exports in August.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+