Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

16 October 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Anti-climactic end to Q3 for Indonesian trade; expect a GDP hit

  • Indonesian export growth weakened in September, highlighting the limits of the commodities boost…
  • …This price lift is also fading on the import side, increasingly exposing sluggish real import demand.
  • We see the current account deficit at 0.8% of GDP this year, and trade should hit Q3 GDP by 0.2pp.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 October 2024 US Monitor Support to payroll growth from the health and education sectors will fade

  • Healthcare and education payrolls together are nearly one million below their pre-Covid trend path...
  • ...But healthcare job postings have fallen sharply; S&L governments lack funds to hire many more teachers.
  • Consumers perceive the highest chance of missing a debt payment since April 2020; lenders will take note.

Samuel TombsUS

16 October 2024 LatAm Monitor Peru's BCRP maintains rates, with inflation likely to rebound in Q4

  • BCRP held interest rates steady, despite the recent improvement in inflation and economic uncertainty.
  • Global geopolitical noise and unfavourable base effects have pushed policymakers to the sidelines.
  • Mexico's industry is struggling amid construction issues and weak manufacturing demand.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

16 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ auto sector struggling to shift into the right gear

  • EZ car production remains well below pre-pandemic levels and is still facing headwinds… 
  • ...Demand is subdued, and new emissions standards come into effect in 2025. 
  • The sector will stay on the back foot without a push to innovate, most notably to develop cheaper EVs.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 October 2024 UK Monitor Unreliable labour-market data make the MPC's job harder

  • The official labour-market data tell a comforting story of improving labour supply and falling wage growth.
  • But the LFS data are too unreliable to take seriously, and AWE seems to exaggerate the slowdown in pay.
  • The MPC has enough to cut rates in November, but the data fog will restrict easing to once per quarter.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, September

In one line: China export growth strategy faces challenges in H2, signalling growing need for domestic stimulus.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: PPI, China, September

In one line: China’s insufficient demand and over capacity continue to weigh on producer prices

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 14 October 2024

In one line: China's deepening deflation fears highlight the need for greater fiscal stimulus

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: BoK Decision, Korea, October

In one line: The Bank of Korea cuts rates for the first time in four and a half years

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, September

In one line: Korea’s resilient export growth continues on a working day adjusted basis in September. 

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 11 October 2024

In one line: The Bank of Korea cuts rates for the first time in four and a half years

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 7 October 2024

In one line: China's FX reserves rose more than expected in September

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 30 September 2024

In one line: China’s manufacturing downturn persists amid weak demand, while non-manufacturing activity stagnates

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, China, September

In one line: China’s manufacturing downturn persists amid weak demand

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, September

In one line: Tokyo inflation dips in September as energy subsidies reinstated; Underlying inflation remains resilient

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 27 September 2024

In one line: China's industrial profit growth sees sharpest fall in 18 months; Japan's Tokyo CPI dips as energy subsidies reinstated

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 23 September 2024

In one line: Korea 20-day export growth remained resilient on a WDA basis

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: 20-Day Exports, Korea, September

In one line: Korea 20-day export growth remained resilient on a WDA basis

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 18 September 2024

Weaker car shipments and US demand drag Japan’s exports in August.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Japan, August

Weaker car shipments and US demand drag Japan’s exports in August.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

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