Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- State and local government investment spending has slowed sharply; soon it will fall outright…
- ...Both tax revenues and federal government payments to S&L are falling; cashflow is evaporating.
- The rebound in consumers' confidence likely will prove unsustainable if job growth weakens as we expect.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Mexico’s Q1 GDP upward revision masks the underlying economic slowdown; rate cuts are badly needed.
- Pre-election spending will fuel short-term growth, despite rising public debt and economic challenges.
- Core inflation is easing in May, allowing a still-hawkish Banxico to consider rate cuts next month.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BoK stood pat in May, citing rising inflation risks due to strengthening economic conditions.
- The rate-cut timing is less certain now due to volatile expectations of the Fed’s move and geopolitical risk .
- Japan’s flash PMI surveys show tentative signs of growth broadening to manufacturing.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Ignore the rise in the composite PMI in May it has been a poor guide to GDP growth since the pandemic...
- ...The failure of the employment index to reverse April's plunge adds to signs of slowing payroll growth.
- We look for a small rise in core capital goods shipments in April, due to a calendar quirk, not an improving trend.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Our final forecast for India’s Q1 GDP next week sees growth slow to 6.2%, from 8.4% in Q4…
- …The hits should come from an import bounce, weaker public spending and a plunge in valuables.
- Taiwanese retail sales will remain subdued for the rest of Q2, but a late -H2 recovery is in the works.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The June rate cut is safe, but sticky Q1 negotiated wage growth will prevent another one in July.
- We now see the ECB easing by 25bp in June, September, October and December; no cuts in 2025.
- The May EZ PMIs add to our conviction that EZ GDP growth is continuing its tepid rebound in Q2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The flash PMI suggests services CPI inflation will resume its decline after barely falling in April.
- The PMI suggests growth is slowing to a more comfortable 0.3% quarter-to-quarter pace too.
- So, the MPC can cut interest rates in August, even if April inflation ended the chances of a June reduction.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- S&P's employment index has a poor long-term correlation with payrolls, but markets are paying attention now.
- Leading indicators leave us looking for an above-consensus 230K initial claims print today.
- "Various" FOMC members signalled willingness to hike in the minutes, but the data has moved on since then.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Malaysian export growth rose sharply in April, but this was mostly down to favourable base effects…
- …With this support likely to wane in coming months, all eyes are on the recovery in electronics exports.
- BI stood pat yesterday, after April’s shock hike; the economy has yet to feel the full force of this cycle.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Is the idea of a July rate cut sinking without a trace? Isabel Schnabel seems to think so.
- Today’s Q1 negotiated wage growth data are a wild card; one-offs in Germany are the main upside risk.
- We agree with Ms. Schnabel’s assessment that the natural rate has increased, at least temporarily.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in August, versus June previously, following strong April inflation.
- Services inflation barely slowed in April and was 0.4pp stronger than the MPC expected.
- The services strength was widespread and not concentrated in a handful of erratic items.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We see existing home sales unchanged last month, but the outlook for the rest of Q2 is dim.
- The May rise in Manheim used car prices looks like a blip; sluggish sales will lead to a further margin squeeze.
- Fed minutes unlikely to change market perceptions about easing timing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Mixed signals in Colombia’s Q1 GDP, as strong consumption clashes with weak investment.
- Policy uncertainty under President Petro is stifling the investment recovery; the outlook remains bleak.
- The more than 30% collapse in capex since Petro took office highlights the hit, amid high interest rates.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Korean 20-day exports slowed sharply in May because of working-day effects.
- The underlying trend is actually improving after adjustment. Chip shipments remain the major driver.
- We expect no change at the upcoming BoK meeting but have pushed back our first rate cut to Q4.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The EZ goods trade surplus widened in March, and net trade in goods likely boosted GDP in Q1.
- Advance data from China as well as surveys suggest this boost is disappearing in Q2...
- ...And we think rising imports means net trade is set to weigh on growth for the rest of the year.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Polls suggest the Labour Party will win the general election that must be held by January 2025.
- The party plans supply-side boosting initiatives, from freeing planning rules to ‘crowding in’ investment.
- Those policies pose modest upside risk to current UK potential growth of around 1.5% per year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Our Homebase model points to an initial estimate of a subpar 150K rise in private payrolls in May.
- The Redbook measure of year-over-year growth in retail sales has been remarkably strong lately...
- ...But it has often overstated the trend in the official retail sales data in the recent past; we think it is again.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Chile’s economy gained traction in Q1, thanks mainly to improving domestic demand.
- Falling inflation and lower interest rates are gradually supporting the upturn, but downside risks remain.
- The recovery will likely lose speed but won’t collapse; further monetary policy normalisation will help.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- GDP growth in Thailand smashed expectations in Q1, as it fell trivially to 1.5% from 1.7% in Q4…
- …But the consumption-and inventories-led quarterly bounce is dubious and unsustainable.
- Merchandise trade and investment went from bad to worse, though the latter should revive from Q2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Policymakers on Friday announced a raft of property support measures aimed at tackling oversupply...
- ...But the funding allocated to buy up unsold housing inventory is just the start, and more will be needed.
- In April, second-hand housing prices plunged at their steepest rate since September 2014.
Duncan WrigleyChina+