Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: House prices jump in March as buyers rush to beat stamp duty, but we expect a partial unwind in the coming months.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Inflation should run around 3.5% for the rest of the year, although an Easter boost means the April headline exaggerates the strength a little.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Back in business; at least 75bp in more cuts to come this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Back in business; at least 75bp in more cuts to come this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The S&P composite PMI suggests underlying GDP growth is tracking around 2% for now...
- ...but the survey also points to much higher core goods inflation and pressures on services firms too.
- Markets rightly judge that the “Big Beautiful Bill” will boost debt issuance but do little to lift demand.
Samuel TombsUS
- An agricultural rebound drove headline GDP growth in Mexico in Q1, offsetting weakness elsewhere.
- Services and industrial output fell, suggesting the economy is heavily exposed to shocks.
- Persistent inflation, especially in services, complicates Banxico’s easing path amid deteriorating conditions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Our final forecast for India’s Q1 GDP report sees a dip to 6.0% from 6.2%, below the consensus, 6.7%…
- …The big boost from net trade in Q4 should vanish fully, offset partly by improved local private demand.
- The PMIs suggest the job market is rapidly heating up again, but we still see no hard data confirmation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s composite PMI dipped below 50 in May, led by rapidly slowing services and a drop in manufacturing.
- That said, US importers rushed to order goods ahead of the tariff reprieve expiring, offsetting falls in output.
- The BoJ will hold rates as it assesses the outcome of negotiations and their impact on the economy.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- A second straight fall in the EZ composite PMI in May points to downside risk for GDP in Q2.
- The INSEE and PMI suggest services are weakening, despite tight labour markets and little hit from tariffs.
- Inflation pressures are unwinding, so we are maintaining our call for further ECB easing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Falling uncertainty as President Trump dialled back his more ruinous tariffs boosted the PMI in May.
- The PMI signals 0.3% q/q GDP growth once we adjust for the survey’s typical overreaction to uncertainty.
- The MPC will welcome easing price pressures but needs another month of data to confirm the trend.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CHINA MORE RESPONSIVE TO FALTERING GROWTH THIS YEAR
- JAPAN’S STUMBLING GROWTH A REASON FOR BOJ CAUTION
- BOK SET TO RESUME RATE CUTS IN MAY
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- In one line: An abysmal start to Q2, but support from energy has been fading for a few months.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The marked weakness in airline passenger numbers partly reflects a dive in inbound tourism.
- Most other near-real time indicators of consumers’ spending remain relatively resilient.
- Existing home sales probably remained depressed in April; a meaningful recovery still is some way off.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Brazil — Political and fiscal risks escalating
- Mexico — Stability tested by violence and reform
- Colombia — Mr. Petro’s reform agenda faces headwinds
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Bank Indonesia resumed easing, with a 25bp cut; the Q1 GDP letdown was even graver in actuality.
- The Board’s lower credit growth forecast is already looking too optimistic; we see 75bp more in cuts.
- US and ASEAN front-loading continues to mask weak Chinese demand for Malaysian exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Korea saw improvements in early trade data for May, with exports falling at a slower pace.
- Japan’s export growth in April was hit by US tariffs on foreign cars and steel products.
- The BoK will resume easing to offset tariff impacts; the BoJ will pause rate hikes and assess negotiations.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The EC’s new economic forecasts see a ‘Goldilocks’ boom next year; the economy won’t be that lucky.
- We see stronger growth in Germany than the EC next year, but weaker in France and Spain.
- The EC’s forecast for EZ inflation in 2026, at 1.7%, rests on too dovish energy and core goods forecasts.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Administered, government-set and indexed price hikes drove inflation up to 3.5% in April.
- Erratic factors added only modestly to inflation, so the MPC will have to take the headline seriously.
- Accumulated news—growth, lower tariffs, inflation—leads us to expect only one more rate cut this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Homebase data signal a 150K rise in May private payrolls, matching the average of the last three months...
- ...But its skew towards hospitality means it is a poor overall indicator; others have a better track record.
- Major consumer confidence surveys have diverged markedly; we suspect political bias is the problem.
Samuel TombsUS
- US - How stimulative will fiscal policy be if the “Big Beautiful Bill” passes?
- EUROZONE - Swiss economy galloping in 2025, though growth is now slowing
- UK - MPC preview: dovish shift, but not as much as the market expected
- CHINA+ - Japan’s weak Q1 GDP print reinforces BoJ’s decision to pause
- EM ASIA - US front-running boosts Thailand’s Q1, but it’s all downhill from here
- LATAM - Banxico delivers another 50bp rate cut amid weak growth
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
