Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Why use a broken compass when you have GPS?
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Catastrophic jobs balance exaggerates economic weakness, but risks to our growth forecast are firmly down.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Italian growth fared better than previously thought in Q4, and should now pick up.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Easing borrowing costs drive car registrations higher in February.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- February’s rise in Homebase education jobs was small only because January’s fall was relatively mild.
- The broad-based jump in Challenger job cuts shows clear cracks are forming in the labor market.
- Trade data likely miscount a surge in gold imports; revisions will result in a smaller net trade hit to GDP.
Samuel TombsUS
- Mexico’s economy is struggling as tariffs noise fuel uncertainty, weighing on trade, capex and confidence.
- Private consumption and investment are plunging; remittances from the US face growing threats.
- Colombia’s external accounts are seeing lower deficits, robust remittances and an improving outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Vietnam’s first trade deficit since mid-2022 was due partly to Tet noise, masking a spike in US exports…
- …Payback will eventually follow the front-loading of US demand; FDI is feeling the tariff uncertainty.
- The soft February CPI should be all the BSP needs to resume rate cuts at its next meeting in April.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The ECB is playing it safe; trade uncertainty outweighs upside risks from fiscal stimulus, for now.
- April is wide open, but the ECB will pause its easing unless it perceives US tariffs on a sustained basis.
- The ECB has pushed out the point at which inflation hits 2%; it will soon have to abandon the idea entirely.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect GDP to fall 0.1% month-to-month in January, as consumers stayed away from the pub.
- Manufacturing output should also unwind from the sharp increase seen in December.
- We continue to look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q1, but downside risks are building.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
China's steps up fiscal support in a measured fashion; room for further easing
Caixin services activity improves
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Door now wide open for the BSP to resume easing in April
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Another data point in favour of ECB hawks.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The near-3% annualized decline in GDP forecast by the Atlanta Fed’s model is far too downbeat.
- Consumption will recover in February and GDPNow likely is misinterpreting the surge in gold imports.
- The ADP and ISM services employment indicators are both unreliable guides to payrolls.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazilian Real — Resilience in the face of adversity
- Argentinian Peso — Path to stability, US permitting
- Chilean Peso — Solid domestic drivers
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Premier Li yesterday announced additional stimulus equivalent to 1.7% of GDP, to bolster growth.
- The disappointing funding amount for consumer subsidies can be boosted to offset slowing exports.
- Government land and property inventory purchases should moderately speed up the real estate recovery.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Germany has fired a fiscal bazooka, which won’t go unnoticed by the ECB today.
- Swiss inflation fell further in February, to 0.3%; we think this is a trough, for now.
- We expect the SNB to cut by 25bp later this month, marking the final reduction in this easing cycle.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The catastrophic PMI jobs balance suggests the UK is heading into recession.
- But the PMI exaggerates weakness by measuring the breadth rather than extent of job changes.
- Disinflation is over as the PMI shows firms passing payroll tax hikes and strong wages into prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
