Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Strong government bond issuance cushions overall credit growth, but only modest signs that existing fiscal stimulus is gaining traction
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- We look for a near-zero change in October payrolls; Boeing and Milton likely will each subtract about 50K.
- Similar storms have cost more jobs, but we expect a small hit as Milton arrived midway in the survey week.
- Daily Homebase data show only a small blow to employment on Monday and Tuesday, before Milton hit.
Samuel TombsUS
- Indian CPI predictably bounced sharply last month as favourable food base effects waned further…
- …Short-term food-price pressures are still broadly improving, and CPI expectations pose no worries.
- IP growth saw red ink in August for the first time since late-2022; the outlook remains grim.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s consumer prices are on the brink of deflation while producer price deflation is deepening.
- September’s core inflation slowed to just above zero percent, suggesting muted domestic demand.
- Efficient implementation of existing stimulus should support growth, but more fiscal stimulus is needed.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- EZ corporate profit margins are falling rapidly, underpinning continued ECB policy easing.
- A decline in work-hours since Covid partly explains labour-hoarding in the Eurozone…
- …But fears of labour shortages when the cycle rebounds and no recession are likely bigger drivers.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect a stimulatory Budget from Chancellor Rachel Reeves on October 30.
- A growth-boosting Budget should limit the MPC to cutting interest rates only once per quarter.
- Markets will be unruffled by a modest change to Ms. Reeves’ fiscal rules, so gilt yields could fall.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Primary articles inflation bounces on lower base effects, but underlying inflation remains muted.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Consumers remain relatively upbeat.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: So much for the RBI’s “resilient” growth outlook.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: So much for the RBI’s “resilient” growth outlook.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: On hold, as inflation likely to increase marginally in Q4 due to base effects.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The headline trade deficit narrows because of erratics and metals.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:August’s GDP rebound underwhelmed, cutting our Q3 growth forecast to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: On hold, as inflation likely to increase marginally in Q4 due to base effects.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Hit by falling construction activity.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Inflation will likely rise back up in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation in Mexico continues to decline, fueling expectations for further rate cuts from Banxico.
- More rate cuts are on the horizon, but their pace and magnitude remain up for debate within Banxico.
- Factors like agricultural price rebounds and external pressures could complicate the inflation outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Taiwanese export growth fell sharply in September, highlighting the risks of its growing US reliance…
- …But this should be a blip, as for ward-looking indicators remain solid, especially for chips.
- CPI has fallen below the CBC’s 2% alert level for the first time in a while, but cuts are still off the table.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s finance minister on Saturday announced the intention to provide further support, but no detail…
- ...That’s to be expected, given only the legislature can approve additional fiscal support measures.
- Further targeted support is likely for Q4, but a mega-package to address the root ills will take longer.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- We look for a third rate cut from the ECB this week, taking the deposit rate to 3.25%.
- The consensus and market-based expectations for rates next year are too low…
- …They will move higher once the ECB broaches the subject of the neutral rate.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
