Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor
- Were it not for the superbonus, Italian investment likely would be falling off a cliff...
- ...Interest rates faced by firms are among the high- est, credit standards tight and loan demand sinking.
- The lagged hit from rising interest rates on Eurozone investment will fade later this year, but only slowly.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect two-year gilt yields to fall to 3.9% by end- 2024 as the MPC cuts rates.
- But high government refinancing and BoE gilt sales limit the fall in 10-year gilt yields to 4.0% at end-2024.
- Upside risks remain from inflation persistence and implausibly low public-spending forecasts.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Japan’s preliminary Q1 GDP surprised the market to the downside, with growth turning negative.
- Weak domestic demand, such as business investment and consumption, was the culprit.
- The sluggish growth does not warrant an early rate hike, as markets suggest; we stick to our Q4 call.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The manufacturing sector continues to disappoint and a sustained recovery still looks some way off.
- April's pick-up in import prices likely will have a near-zero impact on core goods CPI inflation.
- The failure of housing starts and claims fully to reverse recent adverse shifts suggest interest rates are too high.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The BSP yesterday left the target reverse repo rate at 6.50%, with its statement still sounding hawkish…
- …But Governor Remolona was more dove than hawk, saying a rate cut in August is now possible.
- The BSP cut its 2024 CPI forecast to 3.8%; it’s been behind the curve and can afford to shoot lower.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ fiscal policy is now consolidating but will remainmuch looser than before the pandemic.
- We think the Italian government is too optimistic on its deficit-reduction this year, and until 2026 too.
- The path for Germany’s fiscal position will depend on spending, while revenues matter most in France.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, as services inflation undershoots its forecasts.
- The MPC’s words in any case signal the precise path of data is not that important for the first rate cut...
- ... Data may matter more for subsequent changes, so robust wage growth will mean one cut per quarter.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Underlying services inflation slowed in April; momentum in rents and auto insurance prices will fade.
- The CPI and PPI data suggest the core PCE deflator rose by 0.23%, the smallest increase since December.
- April's retail sales report supports the case for a slowdown in consumption growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Indonesian export growth rose back up above zero in April for the first time in 11 months, to 1.7%…
- …But this was mostly thanks to favourable technicalities; exports are still broadly stagnating.
- A durable return to positive growth should ensue in H2, in large part due to commodity prices.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in the Eurozone rebounded at the start of 2024, matching the initial estimate.
- A fall in German construction will weigh on EZ growth in Q2, but the overall upturn will continue.
- EZ employment growth slowed in Q1, but surveys suggest the worst is now over.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We see the MPC continuing quantitative tightening at its current £100B-per-year pace in 2024/25.
- The MPC has said explicitly that it does not see rate cuts and QT as contradictory.
- Reserves will not reach ‘equilibrium’ until 2026, even with QT at a £100B-per-year pace.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We are merely nudging up our forecast for the April core CPI to 0.37%, from 0.35%, following the PPI data.
- Short-term movements in many equivalent PPI and CPI components are weakly correlated.
- We also look today for a 0.4% rise in total retail sales, consistent with near-zero real consumption growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Peru’s BCRP cut the policy rate by 25bp to 5.75% and delivered a dovish shift in the inflation outlook.
- Further easing will depend on inflation dynamics and its determinants; US Fed policy will also play a role.
- Inflation in Chile surprised to the upside in April, which will force the BCCh to act with more caution.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in India continued to slip trivially in April, but we see some positive underlying trends in food.
- The RBI has a narrow window to start easing in Q3, with the room allowed by low core CPI set to vanish.
- Indonesian retail sales saw a promising Q1 revival, but hold judgement until Ramadan effects wane.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China consumer prices rose in April, after volatility in Q1 caused by holidays and base effects.
- The CPI changes were driven by higher energy and core inflation, but domestic demand was still feeble.
- The PBoC will use “flexible, precise and effective” monetary policy to promote reflation.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Indeed data show that EZ wage growth slowed further in April; a win for ECB doves.
- Catalonia election led to a win for PSC; can it garner a coalition to avoid a repeat election in the autumn?
- German services inflation will rise in May, as the Deutschland ticket falls out of the year-over-year rate.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Sharply falling LFS employment suggests the labour market is easing quickly.
- But those data are misleading, and PAYE jobs will be revised up; the labour market is easing gradually.
- The MPC needs to brace for another strong pay gain in April, but will likely cut in June nonetheless.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The consensus forecast for a 0.2% rise in the April core PPI is well-grounded, but big surprises are common.
- Tight credit is weighing heavily on small businesses; we expect another dip in the NFIB survey in April.
- NY Fed data suggest consumers are becoming more worried about job losses, pointing to higher layoffs.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s disinflation in April supports COPOM’s cautiously dovish stance in the near term…
- …But fiscal woes and external factors, particularly the US Fed, will continue to influence monetary policy.
- Rio Grande do Sul floods add to COPOM’s challenges and could alter the monetary policy outlook for H2.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- China’s Ministry of Finance yesterday announced ultra-long special-bond issuance will start on Friday.
- April’s credit data hit a wall, due to government-bond and bankers’ acceptances repayments .
- Rising government-bond issuance should lift bond yields and credit growth from May onwards.
Duncan WrigleyChina+