- Japan’s Q2 GDP surprised to the upside; economic recovery is on a firmer footing than expected.
- Consumption ended four consecutive quarterly falls in Q2 on the back of first real wage gains since 2022.
- The BoJ is delighted to see more evidence of wage-price spiral; it provided the basis for July’s hike.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The Eurozone’s trade surplus rebounded in June, but net trade in goods likely dragged on growth in Q2.
- We’re expecting this net trade drag on growth to continue for up to 12 months.
- The trend in import growth, however, remains much weaker than implied by our consumption forecasts.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Retail sales volumes gained 0.5% month-to-month in July but were depressed by a large seasonal factor.
- We estimate that retail sales volumes are trending up at a 2.5% month-to-month annualised pace.
- Surveys and consumer confidence signal improving retail sales, while rate cuts will give a boost.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Lower mortgage rates came too late for this month's survey.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Consumers keep spending, despite deteriorating fundamentals.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Weekly data are noisy; the underlying trend is still deteriorating.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
The underlying trend still looks flat; expect continued stagnation ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: Trade deficit weighed down by erratics, non-monetary gold and natural gas prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Solid GDP growth suggests the MPC can wait until November to cut rates again.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Weaker inflation helps the case for rate cuts, but airfares and hotel prices will rebound.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The BSP pulls the trigger… more—and potentially larger—cuts to come in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Small surplus isn’t actually that bad, while the stellar y/y rates need to be put into context.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
The BSP pulls the trigger… more—and potentially larger—cuts to come in Q4
Indonesia’s small trade surplus isn’t actually that bad, while the stellar y/y rates need to be put into context
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Resilient to weak German activity and much better than we anticipated.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Another month of “good data”, implying a 0.13% core PCE print.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Retail sales were strong in July, but weak consumer fundamentals still point to a slowdown ahead.
- The fall in initial claims distracts from the slowly rising trend; expect higher prints ahead.
- We think housing starts dipped in July, as rising inventory drove a drop in single-family construction.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The BSP started easing policy yesterday; we now expect much larger 50bp cuts from December.
- The ousting of Thai PM Srettha will weigh further on the capex recovery and silence some MPC hawks.
- Indonesia’s July trade data were very mixed; don’t read much into the upside and downside surprises.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- July activity data was unspectacular, with slowing growth in FAI and production and weak retail sales.
- China's fixed investment growth fell unexpectedly, with infrastructure investment the main drag.
- FAI growth would have been weaker without the contribution from equipment replacement plan.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Energy inflation remains on track for a big fall in coming months, but it will rebound into year-end.
- EZ headline inflation will fall to within touching distance of 2% in August, but will snap back in Q4.
- Swiss GDP outpaced the Eurozone average in Q2, as industry fared better than we anticipated.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- GDP was unchanged month-to-month in June and grew 0.6% quarter-to-quarter in Q2 as expected.
- Growth will slow in H2 2024, but consumer spending should keep the economy expanding solidly.
- We see upside risks to our forecast for 1.2% year- over-year GDP growth in 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
