- GDP grew 0.2% month-to-month in August as erratic drags on July output unwound.
- Downward revisions to earlier months, however, cut our Q3 GDP forecast to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- That leaves a November MPC rate cut as a racing certainty, even though growth should rebound in Q4.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Consistent with a 0.2% core PCE print; the momentum was in non-PCE components.
Samuel TombsUS
In one line: Still on track for a sixth straight quarterly fall in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Is the German consumer finally waking up?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: House price inflation surges after MPC rate cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Philippine exports are finally staging a real comeback at the margin
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Fed in little hurry to slash rates, for now.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Brazil’s inflation data show subdued pressures but rising risk from oil prices and drought conditions.
- The retail sales decline signals economic headwinds as Brazil faces tighter financial conditions ahead.
- Banxico will keep cutting interest rates in Q4 as the inflation picture continues to improve.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Italian business surveys soured in Q3, but our Nowcast models point to a pick-up in GDP growth.
- Destatis finally published German retail sales data after a four-month hiatus…
- ...They were positive, as we suspected, so we have again removed a German recession from our call.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Disposable income surged 2.8% in H1 2024, but consumer spending rose only 0.8%.
- We expect the resulting jump in the saving rate to reverse through 2025, supporting consumption.
- Disposable income growth will slow, but remain solid at 1.3% year-over-year in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Subdued inflation pressures, allowing Banxico to cut rates further.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Subdued inflation pressures, allowing Banxico to cut rates further.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A benign inflation report despite a number of threats.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A benign inflation report despite a number of threats.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Solid, but likely not enough to prevent a growth hit from net exports in Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: No cut, but the sea change in policy is here.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
No cut, but the sea change in RBI policy is here
Indonesian retail sales growth recovers to a five-month high
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
