Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Indian IP missed expectations in March, with growth slowing to 4.9%, from 5.6% in February…
- …More softness is likely this quarter, with trends at the margin unspectacular; ignore the rosy PMIs.
- An overdue payback in GDP growth to the tune of 0.6pp is likely in Q1, based purely on the IP signal.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Investor sentiment has further to climb, judging by the impressive rally in equities so far this month.
- Rising investor sentiment signals a continued rise in the PMIs, but seasonality suggests otherwise.
- All eyes on detailed services inflation this week for evidence that the fever is breaking.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- CPI inflation likely fell to 2.0% in April, from 3.2% in March, 0.1pp lower than the MPC forecast.
- Ofgem’s utility-price-cap cut as well as slowing goods and food inflation chop 95bp off inflation.
- We expect services inflation to decline to 5.4% in April, as indexed price rises are lower than in 2023.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Brazil — Headwinds amid shifting US rate outlook
- Mexico — Facing challenges amid elevated interest rates
- Chile — Improved outlook, but inflation risks linger
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Jobless claims likely will drop this week, but the sudden spike week is a warning sign of trouble ahead.
- Consumers’ confidence likely has peaked, but changes to the Michigan survey will overstate any softening.
- The new method likely will lift the survey's five-to-10-year inflation expectations measure, slightly.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s central bank slowed the pace of rate cuts due to fiscal risks and rising inflation expectations.
- Policymakers have abandoned their previous forward guidance and become more data-dependent.
- The hawkish rate cut signals a cautious approach in H2, but the outlook for 2025 will be different.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- China export growth bounced in April, thanks partly to receding high base from last year.
- Adjusted for seasonal factors, monthly exports actually steepened its fall, pointing to still fragile recovery.
- While exports share to US decreased over the years, those to Vietnam and Mexico are on the rise
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- GDP growth in the Philippines inched up to 5.7% in Q1, from 5.5% in Q4, but fell short of the consensus.
- We have raised our 2024 GDP forecast to 5.2%, still implying a drop from 2023; consumption is frail.
- The post-Covid catch-up in investment still has legs, but plunging building permits is a big red flag.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Food inflation has declined steadily since peaking at 15.5% last year but now seems to be stabilising.
- Surveys suggest it will hold steady just below 3% for now, but falling food PPI points to further downside.
- Catalonia’s election will most likely lead to a PSC-led coalition government; Sanchez will be happy.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A triple whammy of changes from the MPC suggests a June rate cut is more likely than not.
- Two rate-setters voted for a cut, and MPC forecasts indicate three Bank Rate reductions this year.
- The MPC’s guidance signals that pay settlements data over the next two months could seal the deal.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We see a sharp downturn in payrolls soon, despite the rock-bottom level of initial jobless claims.
- Claims tend to lead payrolls during an upturn, but deteriorate alongside payrolls during a downturn.
- Revisions to payrolls are uncorrelated with the initial response rate; April's weak initial print will survive.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Inflation in Taiwan surprisingly fell in April, as fears over the electricity-tariff hike proved overblown…
- …But slowing goods disinflation and sticky services inflation will make a further moderation tougher.
- Philippine inflation also shocked to the downside in April; a June rate cut is still live.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ industry was a drag on GDP growth in Q1, despite German industry coming out of recession.
- February data confirm services led the rebound in EZ GDP in Q1 and will stay in the driving seat for now.
- The boost from construction appears to be reversing already, and the fall in the PMI in April bodes ill.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect PAYE employment to rise 20K in April, and March’s fall to be revised smaller.
- The jobless rate should rise to 4.3%, and private-sector regular pay will gain 0.4% month-to-month.
- Wages will likely beat the MPC’s forecast but preserve the picture of a gradually easing labour market.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI health insurance prices are set to slow sharply from April, thanks to methodological changes.
- Prices should flatline from April to September, but the 1½% trend in the PCE measure will continue.
- MBS data on mortgage applications likely nudged up last week, but from a very low base.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- GDP growth in Indonesia ticked up to 5.1% in Q1, from 5.0% in Q4, in line with the consensus…
- …But thanks largely to a big—and unsustainable—election-period jump in government expenditure.
- The Q4 inventories lift disappeared overnight, with exports still flailing, while capex softened noticeably.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- April’s RMB343B PSL net repayment is probably related to the PBoC’s desire to cushion bond yields.
- The April Caixin services activity PMI barely slowed, a rosier picture than the drop in the official index.
- The Caixin index is tracking the service-sector output data better than the official index.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- German factory orders fell again in March, as capital and intermediate goods demand faltered...
- ...Turnover data suggest production figures will be better than expected today, but still down.
- Retail sales confirm the EZ consumer was still show- ing little interest in goods in Q1; will this change?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect CPI inflation to fall to 2.1% in April, from 3.2% in March, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Ofgem’s utility price-cap cut contributes about a third of that inflation fall, the rest is broad-based.
- Services inflation likely slowed to 5.4% in April, 0.1pp stronger than the MPC expects.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Banks are continuing to tighten credit availability for business and consumers.
- The real cost of bank loans to small businesses is approaching 8%; no wonder they are cutting costs.
- The lag between banks' willingness to extend consumer credit and lending flows is long; a slowdown lies ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US