- In one line: Supporting BCCh’s cautious easing stance.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Revised down; held back by consumption and investment.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Industry is unlikely to recover until the external picture improves.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Vietnamese exports are regaining momentum, thanks in large part to US demand
We’ve seen enough; downgrading our inflation forecasts for Vietnam
Actual retail sales growth in Vietnam remains in the log single-digit range
The latest slump in Philippine sales is starting to bottom out, just
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The trend in private payrolls has halved to just 100K in six months; NFIB data signal further slowing.
- The August dip in unemployment was due to a jump in temporary layoffs unwinding; the trend is rising.
- FOMC members Waller and Williams don’t sense the urgency; expect only a 25bp easing this month.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s industrial production declined in July following a solid H1, and the outlook is now cautious.
- A weaker trade surplus and rising import demand point to mounting external pressures.
- Chile’s inflation rose in August; food and housing prices led the increase, due to temporary shocks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Vietnam’s seasonally adjusted trade surplus barely moved in August , but exports to the US are flying…
- …We still expect GDP growth to slip modestly in Q3, with IP and retail sales clearly losing momentum.
- Philippine CPI returned quickly to the BSP's range in August; the door ’s ajar for a 50bp cut in October.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ GDP rose less than expected in Q2, mainly due to downward revisions to French and Irish GDP.
- Consumption and investment held back growth, while net trade did all the heavy lifting.
- Compensation-per-employee growth eased, in line with other measures of wage growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect the Chancellor to raise taxes by £10B per year, only partially offsetting higher spending.
- So, the OBR will likely increase its forecasts for government borrowing over the next five years.
- Ms. Reeves likely will meet her fiscal rules by changing the definition of government debt used.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- August unemployment has often surprised to the upside, perhaps due to shifting seasonality…
- …But continuing claims and state-level data suggest unemployment overshot its trend in July.
- Growth in unit labor costs is now running well below 2%, pointing to weak underlying inflation.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The BCCh resumed its easing, reflecting weaker growth and stable inflation expectations.
- The Bank signalled a faster path to neutral, in Q2 2025, acknowledging weaker domestic demand.
- We expect further rate cuts, to 5% by late Q4 and 4% by Q2 2025, but uncertainty is elevated.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- BNM is likely to stay on hold for the rest of 2024, faced with slowing CPI and a strong GDP outlook.
- Taiwanese CPI is set to benefit from slower imported inflation, but rental growth is still a worry.
- Singaporean retail sales growth is likely to remain weak for most of H2, barring friendly base effects.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- July’s German factory orders increase was driven by major orders; jump in June’s core orders was a blip.
- German industrial turnover figures point to output data today coming in well below consensus.
- EZ retail sales are still being compiled without German figures and cannot be relied upon.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in July, thanks to retail sales growth and fewer strike days.
- Professional services are the wild card for July; we make a conservative growth assumption.
- Our Q3 growth forecast is close to rounding up to 0.5% quarter-to-quarter, above the MPC’s 0.4%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strong construction growth continues as interest rate cuts boost demand.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Inflation continues to slow, but the pace of decline is easing.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
