Pantheon Publications

China+ Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, February

Manufacturing sentiment rebounds, despite the brewing trade war

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 3 March 2025: China sentiment revival despite brewing trade war

Caixin PMI shows manufacturing sentiment rebound, despite the brewing trade war

Duncan WrigleyChina+

4 March 2025 US Monitor It's tariff D-day again; what's at stake for consumer prices?

• Tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico would boost the headline PCE deflator by 0.5%.
• Our calculation assumes trade flows shift and manufacturers and retailers absorb some of the costs.
• We see little risk of workers obtaining bigger wage rises in response; services disinflation will continue.

Samuel TombsUS

4 March 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't put too much faith into the sudden jump in ASEAN's PMI, yet

• ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI leapt suddenly in February to a seven-month high of 51.5…
• …But it seems to have been flattered by residual seasonality, and pockets of weakness still persist.
• The descent into outright deflation in Indonesia should be short-lived, as the power relief expires.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

4 March 2025 LatAm Monitor Argentina's economy rebounding under Mr. Milei's leadership

• Mr. Milei has achieved the ‘miracle’ of macro stabilisation without wrecking Argentina’s economy.
• The sectoral performance highlights strength in agriculture, mining and retail; construction lags behind.
• Peru’s disinflation is continuing, still within the central bank’s target range amid external uncertainty.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

4 March 2025 China+ Monitor China's post-holiday activity bounce is hopeful, albeit markedly uneven

• China’s February PMIs point to a post-holiday activity bounce, but also improved sentiment.
• Sentiment in the manufacturing sector revived, thanks to expectations of stronger demand.
• The construction PMI rose on the back of infrastructure project construction work.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

4 March 2025 Eurozone Monitor ECB hawks have a strong case for arguing this week's cut is the last

• The ECB will cut its policy rates by 25bp, but the argument for further easing is now much tougher. 
• February inflation data mean the ECB’s forecast for Q2 inflation at 2.1% is now a Hail Mary. 
• ECB doves will focus on downside risks to growth and employment from tariffs; they have a point.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 March 2025 UK Monitor Consumers are spending, but uncertainty hits investment hard

• The rise in credit-card borrowing in January points to consumers recovering from October Budget wobbles.
• Increasing mortgage approvals for house purchase signal a broad-based revival in buyer interest.
• But falling finance raised suggests business investment has been hit hard by uncertainty.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

China+ Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, February

Post-holiday activity rebound, but firms still wary ahead of the Two Sessions and tariff hikes

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Official Non-Manufacturing PMI, China, February

 Construction activity rebound looks mainly seasonal; too soon to say if a real infrastructure push is coming

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, February

Outlook still gloomy, after sifting through the holiday data distortions

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, January

Net trade set to drag heavily on growth amid a pre-tariff surge in imports.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

EM Asia Datanote: Core Industries, India, January

• In one line: Offsetting base effects all over the place; momentum is solid, otherwise.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: GDP, India, Q4

• In one line: A trade- and consumption-driven bounce; the economy is still operating below potential.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, February 2025

In one line: Consistent with a below-consensus EZ print on Monday.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Unemployment, Chile, January, 2025

• In one line: Retail sector remains strong, while industrial sector struggles in January.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

EZ Datanote: ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations, EZ, January & Unemployment, Germany, February

In one line: EZ inflation expectations ease back; further increases in German unemployment are on the way.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: State CPIs, Germany, February

In one line: Consistent with the national CPI undershooting the consensus.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, December

• In one line: Finally, back down to earth.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PM Datanote: Advance Inflation & INSEE Consumers' Spending, France, Feb/Jan

In one line: Inflation pulled lower by energy, but the core softened too; setback in spending after a strong finish to 2024.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone