- Mexico — Global issues and politics the key drags
- Colombia — Subdued due to fiscal noise
- Chile — Markets rise amid economic optimism
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The RBI held its repo rate at 6.50% yesterday, but finally shifted its stance to “neutral”.
- Its still-optimistic GDP outlook implies it will be easy to justify a December cut, when Q3 growth falls flat.
- The outlook for food inflation—both short- and long-term—is improving, despite isolated shocks.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We're lowering our Q3 growth forecast for Germany; we now think the economy fell into recession…
- …But beware, Nowcast models in Germany are less reliable than usual; Q3 GDP is a true wild card.
- France won't cut public spending by €40B next year, but a deficit of 5% of GDP is doable, and then some.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We think the recent surge in gilt yields reflects stronger US data and inflation risks.
- A change to the fiscal rules will likely result in more borrowing in the upcoming Budget on October 30…
- ...but that likely had only a modest effect on market pricing, with little change in sovereign risk premia.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
Tight credit still weighing heavily on small companies.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Retail sales rise solidly, shrugging off Budget uncertainty.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: The boost to GDP from rising net exports is reversing, we think.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Japan's nominal wage growth slows, as bonuses effect fades
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The ongoing run of positive Philippine sales growth is fragile
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - One suspicious-looking jobs number will not distract the Fed
- EUROZONE - Bond yields are too low relative to the medium-term inflation outlook
- UK - Governor Bailey lowers the bar to consecutive rate cuts
- CHINA+ - The lessons of 2015 for assessing China’s current outlook
- EM ASIA - Vietnam’s Q3 GDP shows the economy easily shrugging of Yagi
- LATAM - Colombia’s BanRep to keep cutting rates amid soft economic recovery
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The gradual easing of inflation pressures continues in Colombia, despite temporary upside shocks.
- Political uncertainty and minimum-wage talks complicate BanRep’s ability to accelerate rate cuts.
- Chile’s inflation slowed in September, paving the way for further rate cuts amid energy-tariff uncertainty.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Philippine sales growth stayed positive in August, but support from remittances will soon U-turn…
- …Consumer confidence remains lacklustre, and the drawdown on already-low savings is no silver bullet.
- Below-target Thai CPI continues to make the case for an imminent rate cut; rising THB risks deflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s National Day holiday saw only a modest tourism-sector boost, despite the jump in stocks.
- Consumers have more wealth tied up in property, whose outlook is still murky.
- The NDRC yesterday focused on better implementation of existing fiscal support.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- German manufacturing came roaring back in August, but output fell again in September.
- We estimate industrial production in Germany fell by 1.4% q/q in Q3, a touch worse than in Q2.
- Look past the fall in spending on non-durables for a more optimistic story on the EZ consumer.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- CPI inflation likely fell to 1.9% in September, from 2.2% in August, 0.2pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- All of the undershoot relative to the MPC’s call is accounted for by falling motor fuel prices.
- CPI services inflation will likely slip 0.2pp to 5.4%, as a hotel price jump partially offset a fall in airfares.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Brazil’s exports are struggling as weak prices hit the mining/oil sectors and overall trade performance.
- Imports have surged, for the wrong reasons; domestic demand will ease soon.
- Domestic and external challenges are weighing on Mexico’s growth outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- GDP growth in Vietnam surged to a two-year high in Q3, at 7.4%, handily outstripping expectations…
- …The quarterly profile shows only a trivial loss of steam, despite the damage from Typhoon Yagi.
- The critical export sector is still going strong, though FDI inflows now appear to be peaking.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
