Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- ‘Easter-adjusted’ BRC retail sales probably rose 1.2% year-over-year in March, similar to February.
- We expect a 0.3% month-to-month increase in official retail sales volumes in March.
- Retail volumes will continue rising after March as real income increases and relative goods prices fall.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- This week’s ECB meeting will be a dovish hold; Ms. Lagarde will lay the foundation for a June cut.
- The consensus and markets see the ECB’s policy rate falling below 2.5% in 2025; we beg to differ.
- Rising production in industry and services points to upside risks to German GDP growth in Q1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Revisions between the first and third payroll estimate have become bigger and increasingly negative.
- Under pressure SMEs likely are under-represented in the first estimate; expect larger downward revisions in Q2.
- We expect another fall in the NFIB index in March, as small businesses remain under pressure.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Disinflation consolidated in the Andes in March, but we expect the downtrend to continue in Q2.
- This will provide room for further policy accommodation, but policymakers will proceed with caution…
- …And rate cuts will be modest, given a number of domestic and external threats.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BSP held rates yesterday but sounded more hawkish, raising its 2024 inflation forecast to 4.0%.
- We still expect 100bp in cuts this year, with the first in June; food inflation will start co-operating in May.
- Another day, another Lunar New Year boost to February retail sales growth; this time in Malaysia.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We look for PAYE employment to rise by 30K in March and the unemployment rate to stay at 3.9%.
- We expect a 0.3% month-to-month rise in average weekly earnings ex bonuses in February...
- ... Leaving year-over-year wage growth on track to undershoot the MPC’s Q1 forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The Homebase jobs data signal March strength; we expect 225K headline payrolls and 175K private…
- ...But the NFIB survey’s hiring intentions measure points to much weaker numbers in Q2.
- Low snow cover likely boosted hours worked and depressed AHE, but the Fed only cares about the ECI.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- A busy week for Andean economies amid economic and political developments.
- Chile’s central bank maintained its stance of gradual easing and flagged inflation risks.
- Upward revisions to growth and inflation forecasts in the IPoM point to a smoother easing path ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Japan’s Tankan for large manufacturers deteriorated for the first time in a year.
- The silver lining is optimism for the non-manufacturing sector, storming to its highest since 1991.
- Nothing in the survey will surprise the BoJ, and we expect interest rates to reach 0.20% by end-2024.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The fall in Swiss inflation in March solidifies our view that more SNB rate cuts are on the way this year.
- EZ house prices fell in Q4 and were down by 1.1% in 2023 overall; we look for another 1% drop this year.
- The PMI adds to the evidence that Spain’s economic outperformance continued in Q1; we concur.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We think GDP was unchanged month-to-month in February, after rising 0.2% in January.
- Poor weather likely weighed on construction, but services and manufacturing probably grew slightly.
- That would put GDP on track to rise 0.2-to-0.3% in Q1, above the MPC’s forecast of 0.1%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The plunge in ISM services prices paid to a four-year low points to much slower core services inflation.
- Light vehicle sales slumped in Q1, dragging on overall consumption growth.
- Initial jobless claims likely rose modestly last week, but a sharp increase is likely in the coming months.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazilian Real — Domestic and external factors weighing
- Mexican Peso — Outperforming amid attractive carry
- Colombian Peso — Attractive carry, supportive oil dynamics
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- EZ inflation surprised to the downside in March, but not enough for the ECB to pull the trigger next week.
- Services inflation was sustained by the early Easter in March; it will come down sharply in April.
- We expect EZ headline inflation to stabilise around 2% from August through to Q1 next year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- CPI inflation likely fell to 3.0% in March, from 3.4% in February, 0.1pp weaker than the MPC expects.
- Declines in food and core goods inflation account for most of the slowdown in March.
- Services inflation likely matched the MPC’s forecast of 5.8% in March.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Expect little change in the ISM services index today; either way, it’s a poor guide to services spending.
- The ADP employment report is hopelessly unreliable; take it seriously at your peril.
- The JOLTS quit rate is consistent with much weaker wage growth across the spring and summer, at least.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Chile’s recovery remains on a solid footing, aided by improving domestic and external conditions.
- The performance is encouraging, but caution is warranted, as the upturn could still face headwinds.
- The good start to the year won’t stop the BCCh cutting rates further, which is still badly needed.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The big drop in Vietnamese GDP growth to 5.7% in Q1 was due mainly to seasonal noise unwinding…
- …Trade enjoyed a robust start to the year, but the same cannot be said for household spending.
- We push back our expectation for the first BI cut to Q4, given rising and stubborn food inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s March official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs were both above 50 for the first time since September.
- A strong industrial sector is generating demand for business services too.
- But the lacklustre labour market and dismal property sector will limit the speed of China’s recovery.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The drop in German inflation cements the outlook for a below-consensus EZ inflation report today.
- Why wouldn’t the ECB cut this month if inflation hit 2.2% in March? We can’t see why not either.
- Weakness in France and Germany is still holding back momentum in EZ manufacturing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
