Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- We think the core PCE deflator rose by only 0.11% in November; the trend is slowing sharply.
- Consumers’ spending is still rising, but the rate of growth is moderating after the Q3 jump.
- Aircraft and autos likely lifted November orders, but expect a soft core.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Korea’s 20-day exports rose sharply in December on base effects, and jumps in vessel and chip exports.
- Exports to China and Hong Kong continue to recover, while shipments to the EU tanked.
- Any improvement in Korea’s exports hinges on how sustained the ICT rebound and China’s recovery are.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The latest WARN data suggest layoffs remain low, but seasonals will lift initial claims in the next few weeks…
- …And rising continuing claims suggest people who lose their jobs are taking longer to find new positions.
- The jump in December confidence tells us that people like cheaper gas and rising stocks; who knew?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Mexico — Political noise on the increase
- Chile — Certainty after the constitutional vote?
- Peru — Calm for now
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The PBoC kept one-and five-year LPRs steady in December, after standing pat on MLF rates earlier.
- Japan’s exports dipped back into negative growth in November following two months of expansion.
- Exports to the US and EU slowed significantly, while car exports continue to grow, albeit less strongly.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- German consumer confidence is on the rise but risks to our consumption call remain to the downside.
- The EZ current account surplus climbed in October; the trend in the euro suggests it will decline soon.
- EZ construction started Q4 on a rough note, and all signs point to the struggle stretching into 2024.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The headline CPI rose at a three-month-on-three-month annualised rate of just 1.8% in November.
- The MPC won’t dismiss this as just noise; its new measure of underlying services inflation has slowed too.
- Stable producer prices and falling energy prices imply the headline rate will hit the 2% target as soon as May.
Samuel TombsUK
- Inflation fell sharply in November; it will rebound in December, but what will happen in January?
- Our inflation forecasts remain at odds with the ECB’s; we still see a March rate cut.
- We’re betting that inflation falling below target will prompt the ECB to focus less on wage growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The BoJ announced no change to its easy policy settings yesterday.
- Falling U.S. yields have eased pressure on the yen, lessening the urgency of a BoJ policy shift.
- The December flash PMIs indicate falling manufacturing demand, but resilient services activity.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Timely indicators of house-purchase demand have strengthened, but not by quite enough to raise prices yet.
- House price indices still paint very different pictures; we expect the official index to be revised down.
- Demand, however, will recover further in Q1, as mortgage rates continue to fall; expect a 5% rise in prices in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
- Malaysian export growth fell in November, but this was expected, due to unfriendly base effects…
- … And it should not be extrapolated as a sign of slowing export growth momentum.
- Headline growth in December will likely increase on the back of a turnaround in electronics exports.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- FOMC speeches move markets, but they are not a reliable guide to what will happen in three months.
- The surge in November single-family starts is noise, not signal; expect a correction in December.
- People’s uneasiness over the labor market signals a gradually upward trend in unemployment.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Homebase signals December payroll growth of about 225K; no sign of further weakening yet.
- Lower rates are beginning to cheer homebuilders, who will gain further market share as home sales rise.
- Single-family construction is rebounding, fitfully, but the multi-family rollover has further to go.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Singaporean export growth finally returned to the black in November after 13 months…
- …But the recovery is likely to be gradual, as weak demand weighs on the pace of inventory clearance.
- The slow march in electronics exports will likely show more strongly next year.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- President Milei has rolled up his sleeves, announcing concrete measures to put the economy on track.
- Inflation rebounded sharply in November, and the rapid uptrend will persist over the first half of 2024.
- Chile rejected a constitution proposal for the second time in a year; does this mean uncertainty?
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Net exports are poised to lift GDP growth in Q4, but by how much? We look for a 0.1pp rise.
- Export growth will rebound next year, but we think imports will recover relatively more.
- We believe rising goods imports will weigh on net exports and GDP growth in 2024.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Ofgem likely will reduce its default tariff cap by 10% in April, if wholesale prices remain at their current level.
- Current weights imply this will reduce the all-items CPI by 0.5pp; the drag might be larger after weight updates.
- The recent fall in oil prices has improved the CPI inflation outlook too; we expect it to average just 2.7% in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
- The gap between the GDI and GDP numbers is unusually large by historic standards...
- ...Undercounting of interest payments means that big upward revisions to GDI are a good bet.
- ISM services signals modest and steady growth, but hints at a hefty bounce in October payrolls.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US