Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Job openings are still trending down; catch-up growth in healthcare hiring is fizzling out.
- JOLTS net hiring in December was more muted than payroll growth; January jobs will probably disappoint.
- Auto sales likely were hit by bad weather in January: pre-tariff purchases probably have further left to run.
Samuel TombsUS
- The industrial and commerce sectors are driving Chile’s growth, despite persistent issues in services.
- Confidence indicators are on the mend, as activity navigates complex reforms and external pressures.
- The BCCh will have to take a cautious approach amid sluggish employment growth and high inflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Swiss GDP likely rose by 0.9% in 2024, much better than the 0.2% decline in neighbouring Germany.
- The US has not said it will raise tariffs on Swiss imports, but an EU-US trade tiff will still hurt slightly.
- We continue to think the SNB easing cycle will end in March, though risks are tilted towards further easing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect GDP to stagnate in December, putting growth at -0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4.
- Industrial production likely fell, while we expect healthcare and education to detract from growth.
- A small upward revision to November’s GDP would be enough to avoid GDP falling in Q4 as a whole.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We look for a 125K increase in January payrolls, well below the 170K consensus.
- Survey indicators present an incoherent picture, but unusually cold weather likely hit employment.
- The small fall in continuing claims points to a stable unemployment rate, but the risks are to the upside.
Samuel TombsUS
- Presidents Sheinbaum and Trump agreed to pause tariffs, focusing on border-security cooperation.
- BanRep held interest rates at 9.5%, surprising the consensus, citing inflation and Petro-Trump tensions.
- Increasing inflation expectations and high labour costs are further threats, but BanRep will cut again.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The PMIs show that regional manufacturing is still largely waning; watch for potential US front-loading.
- Indonesia’s shockingly low January CPI was policy-induced and will reverse; it masked a jump in food.
- Fiscal policy in India will stay contractionary, but the government riskily is hoping for a pain-free FY26.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China is likely to be restrained in its retaliation to the US tariff hike announced over the weekend.
- A limited trade war is more likely than a near-term grand bargain. Goodwill gestures seem likely.
- The Caixin manufacturing PMI declined in January but held up better than the official gauge.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- President Trump will soon impose tariffs on imports from the EU, but the details are still up in the air.
- A 10pp increase in tariffs on EU goods is all but fully factored in by the drop in EURUSD since Q3.
- EZ headline and core inflation beat the consensus in January; still no perfect landing at 2% in sight.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We think President Trump’s tariffs, by fracturing supply chains, will be stagflationary for the UK.
- We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 2.8% in January, 0.3pp more than the MPC expected.
- Goods inflation will slow, but airfares and private-school fees will boost services inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
