Underlying equipment investment is still weak, but computers and aircraft are red hot.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Politburo confirms top-level priority on achieving growth target, but only hints at further fiscal support
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Thomas Jordan ends reign as SNB Chairman with a cut; more easing is on the way.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Thomas Jordan ends reign as SNB Chairman with a cut; more easing is on the way.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Decent, but where is the spending growth?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Suspiciously strong and likely to drop back from here.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Resuming the downtrend, despite significant threats.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The estimated increase in real GDP since Q4 2019 has been revised up to 10.7%, from 9.4%.
- August PCE data will point to continued strength in consumers’ spending, but slower growth likely looms.
- We look for a 0.14% August core PCE print, slightly below the consensus.
Samuel TombsUS
- Inflation has been slowing rapidly in September, reinforcing our expectations for a stable Selic rate.
- Underlying pressures are still under control, and we expect the picture to remain benign in Q4.
- The current account deficit is widening amid falling exports, resilient imports and fiscal concerns.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The SNB has lowered its inflation forecasts towards our estimates, blaming a stronger CHF.
- It is unhappy with EURCHF and uncomfortable with its new end-of-horizon inflation call.
- We thought another cut would come in December, and we now also think it will trim rates in March.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A suite of Taylor rules forecasts Bank Rate between 3.4% and 4.3% at the end of 2025.
- These forecasts are based on MPC inflation and growth projections, which we think are too low.
- Policy rules that are more robust to uncertainty about the neutral rate suggest more gradual cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: DM demand is helping to stabilise the ship.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Likely boosted by rapidly falling inflation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
MLF rate cut in line with expectations after the PBoC's monetary easing plan yesterday
Duncan WrigleyChina+
MLF rate cut in line with expectations after the PBoC's monetary easing plan yesterday
Duncan WrigleyChina+
BI SPRINGS A SEP. SURPRISE; 50BP MORE CUTS IN Q4
- …INDIA’S GDP GROWTH SLOWDOWN IS FAR FROM OVER
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
HOUSE-PRICE RECOVERY FALTERS IN JULY, BUT IT’S A BLIP...
- ...PRICE INFLATION WILL ACCELERATE TO 4.5% IN DECEMBER
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
