In one line: Weak, but output still rose in Q1 overall.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German industry came out of recession in Q1, will it last?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
The H2 2023 recovery in Philippine sales hit a big speed-bump in Q1
Not the kind of deficit reduction we’d like to see
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We see a sharp downturn in payrolls soon, despite the rock-bottom level of initial jobless claims.
- Claims tend to lead payrolls during an upturn, but deteriorate alongside payrolls during a downturn.
- Revisions to payrolls are uncorrelated with the initial response rate; April's weak initial print will survive.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Inflation in Taiwan surprisingly fell in April, as fears over the electricity-tariff hike proved overblown…
- …But slowing goods disinflation and sticky services inflation will make a further moderation tougher.
- Philippine inflation also shocked to the downside in April; a June rate cut is still live.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ industry was a drag on GDP growth in Q1, despite German industry coming out of recession.
- February data confirm services led the rebound in EZ GDP in Q1 and will stay in the driving seat for now.
- The boost from construction appears to be reversing already, and the fall in the PMI in April bodes ill.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect PAYE employment to rise 20K in April, and March’s fall to be revised smaller.
- The jobless rate should rise to 4.3%, and private-sector regular pay will gain 0.4% month-to-month.
- Wages will likely beat the MPC’s forecast but preserve the picture of a gradually easing labour market.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Construction growth back with a bang.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Retail sales still went nowhere in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Weak private car sales suggest consumer caution.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Food disinflation offsets impact from electricity tariff rise.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Deficit narrows again, to three-year low.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Orders not rising in line with surveys; trade balance in goods rebounds
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: A grim April but retail sales should recover as the weather improves.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
April CPI stays unexpectedly within the BSP's target range
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - April’s payrolls likely mark the start of a shift to much weaker trend
- EUROZONE - Still three more SNB cuts this year, despite rising inflation in April
- UK - MPC Preview: set to signal more cuts than the market expects
- CHINA+ - China’s broadening services recovery will go only so far
- EM ASIA - Taiwan’s Q1 GDP as good as it’ll likely get in 2024
- LATAM - Mexico’s GDP slowing amid macro concerns and policy dilemma
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- CPI health insurance prices are set to slow sharply from April, thanks to methodological changes.
- Prices should flatline from April to September, but the 1½% trend in the PCE measure will continue.
- MBS data on mortgage applications likely nudged up last week, but from a very low base.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- GDP growth in Indonesia ticked up to 5.1% in Q1, from 5.0% in Q4, in line with the consensus…
- …But thanks largely to a big—and unsustainable—election-period jump in government expenditure.
- The Q4 inventories lift disappeared overnight, with exports still flailing, while capex softened noticeably.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
