Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Brazilian Real — Stable, but risks loom ahead
- Mexican Peso — Rallying on trade relief
- Colombian Peso — Top-performing LatAm FX in May
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI bounced post-“Liberation Day ” but was still below 50 in May, at 49.2…
- …The region’s outperformers—Singapore and the Philippines—lost steam, giving a smaller cushion.
- Forward-looking indicators continue to sour, but at least inflation pressures are receding still.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The May PMI shows UK growth still weak, but recovering as April’s tariff panic fades.
- GDP growth usually far exceeds the PMI steer when uncertainty is high; we look for 0.3% q/q growth in Q2.
- Services firms squeezing margins holds out the hope of inflation easing, but we think it’s just a blip.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The JOLTS participation and response rates are very low; downward revisions have been common lately.
- Other indicators point to fading demand for new hires; at the same time layoffs are starting to rise.
- Several “soft” data series have reversed their April plunges, providing some reassurance about activity.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazil’s industry weakened in April, hit by falling domestic demand and a difficult external backdrop.
- Sectoral data show a broad-based decline, under- scoring structural strains and fading external support.
- Mexico’s first judicial election saw a low turnout, political interference and risks to independence.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- China’s May manufacturing PMI readings diverged, as activity gradually revived post-May 12’s tariff truce.
- Small exporters are likely being hit harder by the trade-policy oscillations, and the détente is already fraying.
- Sentiment has held up surprisingly well, and improved slightly in both manufacturing gauges.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- We expect the initial estimate of May payrolls to show a 26K month-to-month decline.
- LFS unemployment will likely tick up to 4.6% in April, and LFS employment should gain 48K.
- We expect year-over-year whole-economy AWE ex-bonus growth to fall to 5.3% in April, from 5.6%.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We look for a 125K rise in May payrolls; the surge in distribution sector jobs likely has petered out...
- ...While the most reliable survey indicators show that rising uncertainty has weighed on hiring.
- Continuing claims data point to another rise in unemployment, increasing pressure on the FOMC to ease.
Samuel TombsUS
- Mining and services offset weak industrial output in Chile, providing a solid base for Q2 growth.
- Business sentiment improved slightly but remains fragile, with construction still the weakest link.
- Peru’s inflation is well under control, led by cheaper food and fuel prices; the BCRP is likely to cut soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The dramatic collapse in Indonesia’s trade surplus in April was down in large part to seasonal noise…
- …Underlying the emerging down-shift are struggling exports and a welcome recovery in imports.
- We have cut our 2025 CPI forecast to 1.5%, in view of the soft May data and the coming utilities relief.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Both candidates in the presidential election have committed to a KRW30T fiscal plan to boost the economy.
- May’s export growth was not as weak as it appeared; WDA monthly and annual growth were positive.
- Still, tariff and trade-policy uncertainty will continue to weigh on Korea’s GDP growth in 2025.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Consumers are back to spending rather than saving, which should keep GDP growth ticking along.
- Households seem to be reducing saving, and borrowing on credit cards to support spending.
- Manufacturing is past the worst, and so far we see little sign of trade diversion cutting goods inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We look for a 0.1% uptick in real consumers’ spending in April, and a 0.12% rise in the core PCE deflator.
- Q1 GDP growth probably still is being understated, but the economy was losing momentum nonetheless.
- The court ruling against the Trump tariffs looks unlikely to derail the administration’s trade agenda.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- No formal steps towards constitutional change have been taken, yet, despite Mr. Petro’s fiery rhetoric.
- Low protest turnout and legislative hurdles suggest Mr. Petro’s political project is losing momentum fast.
- Peru’s economy started 2025 strongly, supported by primary sectors and resilient domestic demand.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- India’s decent April IP is not without its flaws; growth is now tanking at the margin…
- …This emerging softness is due to falling consumer non-durables, masked by flying capital goods.
- Blame seasonal noise for Thailand’s biggest trade deficit in over two years, but US demand is sliding.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Bank of Korea cut rates to 2.50% in May; board members’ decision was unanimous.
- Weaker growth and lingering uncertainty over trade were likely the factors driving this month’s cut.
- The stronger KRW gave the BoK a window to ease, and a July Fed cut would allow another 25bp cut this year.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Our early calculations suggest CPI inflation will fall only slightly in May, to 3.4%.
- Clothes, computer games, hotel prices and food should mostly offset a fall in travel prices.
- Duty hikes scheduled for 2026 will support headline inflation; we expect more duty hikes to be announced.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The regional Fed surveys suggest services sector growth in slowing rather than collapsing...
- ...But employment growth in many services industries probably will be much weaker in Q3.
- Limited services inflation and wage growth will allow the Fed to respond with easier policy, eventually.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- China’s residential sales have cooled gradually since the late-September round of policy support.
- May’s cuts to lending rates should pep up sales, but it won’t be the last round of support.
- Broad inventory likely still has two years to bottom out, though the recovery should begin earlier.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The tariff shock is fading and Q1 GDP beat consensus, so we raise our 2025 growth forecast to 1.3%.
- Inflation will hover around 3.4% for the rest of 2025, and drop below 3.0% again only next April.
- Easing uncertainty, elevated inflation and growth momentum mean just one more rate cut in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
