Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor
- Tier-one cities are leading another round of targeted residential property market easing in China.
- The goal is stabilisation, however, rather than returning to solid growth, so expect an L-shaped recovery.
- Industrial profits barely improved in July amid excess supply; manufacturing profits are rising though.
- Cautious guidance and strain on long-dated gilts suggest the MPC will slow the pace of QT.
- We expect rate-setters to opt for a reduced pace of £70B-per-year for the next 12 months from October.
- Level of reserves in the system is high, but use of the short-term repo facility indicates demand for liquidity.
- Tariff revenues crept up by just $2B to $32B in August, but likely will reach $45B soon.
- Tariffs have risen this month; imports from high tariff nations will rebound; the de minimis exemption will end.
- We doubt the jump in underlying durable goods orders in July is a sign of things to come.
- Thai exports beat expectations in July, but US front-running will end soon and we see little else to cheer.
- Singapore’s July’s CPI was soft, but it will take a lot more than this to convince the MAS to ease again.
- Taiwan retail sales fell again in July, as discretionary spending remains under pressure.
- The insolvency rate remains low and steady, indicating that corporate distress is contained.
- Leading indicators suggest that insolvencies will remain around current levels in the coming months.
- Solid GDP growth and falling borrowing costs will limit corporate distress in H2.
- A weak month at Boeing likely hit headline orders, but orders ex-transportation probably were soft too.
- Tariff-related uncertainty still seems to be weighing heavily on companies’ capex plans.
- A big inventory overhang points to a further decline in new residential construction ahead.
- The S&P Global PMI points to underlying growth returning to the rapid pace seen in 2024.
- That seems unlikely to us, given the many headwinds to growth, mostly due to tariffs.
- We doubt the jump in services inflation suggested by the PMI will materialize either.
- India’s PMIs continue to shrug off the tariff noise— even the 50% threat—with the August data punchy…
- …Partial Q3 PMIs point to a continuation of near-7% GDP growth, but watch the slump in future output.
- Our final forecast for next week’s Q2 GDP report is 7%, implying only a minor cooling from 7.4% in Q1.
- Higher tariffs hurt Japan’s car and steel exporters in July, with export values seeing precipitous declines.
- Car export prices to the US are still falling in USD terms, but more slowly. Exporters are absorbing costs.
- Japan’s flash composite PMI has slid for three straight months but points to stronger domestic demand in July.
- The PMIs suggest higher US tariffs are weighing on export orders, as we expected…
- ...But the EZ economy is still resilient; the composite PMI edged up to a 15-month high in August.
- Price pressures rose again, implying the risk to our call for an ECB rate cut in September is for no cut.
- The PMI beat expectations and rose to a 12-month high in August.
- August’s flash PMI is consistent with quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q3.
- Sticky inflation and strong growth mean the MPC will need to stay on hold for the rest of 2025.
- Home sales have remained very weak despite recoveries in both supply and mortgage applications.
- That suggests to us that asking prices are too high, and need to come down for the market to clear.
- Home prices have already fallen by about 1% since March and we think a further grind lower lies ahead.
- Bank Indonesia surprised again this month by lowering the BI rate by a further 25bp to 5.00%…
- …We reiterate our 4.75% end-2025 call; the recent food CPI pop is skin-deep and the core is fading.
- Malaysian exports surprised everyone by expanding in July, after two months of contraction.
- Stable inflation in July was confirmed; the core held steady but food and energy inflation rose.
- Higher inflation is on the cards, as energy deflation continues to unwind and food inflation climbs.
- For now, though, we think a fall in core inflation will convince the ECB to push through another rate cut.
- Food, energy-price increases and an erratic jump in airfares drove CPI inflation up to 3.8%.
- Underlying services inflation is easing but remains far too high for the MPC to cut rapidly.
- Headline CPI averaging 3.8% for the rest of 2025 means the MPC will have to stay on hold.
- The One Big Beautiful Bill Act includes sharp cuts to federal health spending, mostly affecting Medicaid.
- That will probably be a minor long-term headwind for the sector in the coming years.
- But the hit will take time to arrive, and the long-term tailwind from an ageing population looks far bigger.
- The PBoC on Monday gave no hint of imminent easing, despite July’s underwhelming activity data.
- China is likely to go slow on further policy support, so it has options if trade talks with the US hit a wall.
- The property market is worsening again, putting developer finances under pressure.
- The EZ current account surplus widened in June, despite a sharp drop in the goods trade balance.
- Services trade was a boost to GDP in Q2, unlike goods trade.
- Foreign investors are funnelling into EZ assets, but this isn’t a new Trump-era trend.
- Sterling has had a mixed year so far against peers, as policy uncertainty has soared.
- We expect less easing than the market, but fiscal worries will weigh on sterling come Budget time.
- Pantheon’s interest rate calls collectively imply cable at 1.35 and GBPEUR at 1.18 at end-2025.
- Thai GDP growth in Q2 was largely in line with expectations, cooling to 2.8% from 3.2%…
- …Export front-loading was still a big part of the story, but this lift should now unwind quickly in H2.
- We still see a broad slowdown, but our 2025 and 2026 forecasts now stand at 2.0% and 1.8%.
