Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- The BoT surprised the widespread consensus yesterday by holding the policy rate at 1.50%.
- The export U-turn is here, and the MPC sounds too nonchalant over domestic demand and inflation…
- …We reiterate our 1.00% terminal rate forecast, implying 25bp cuts in December and in Q1.
- Japan’s real household spending continued to rise in August, despite falling real incomes.
- Nominal wages took a hit, as bonuses plunged, notably in tourism-related sectors and manufacturing.
- The BoJ will be looking for clues about 2026 wage growth, but is also wary of recent JPY weakness.
- Italy’s deficit will shrink this year but still exceed the EU’s 3%-of-GDP limit and the government’s target.
- Its 2026 budget plans are mildly expansionary, including a cut to taxes for middle-income earners…
- ...while little consensus on offsetting revenue-raising measures exists among the coalition.
- We expect GDP to be unchanged in August, as an erratic fall in mining output drags on growth…
- …Services activity likely saved GDP from a fall, with rebounds in large sub-sectors boosting growth.
- We think that underlying economic activity remains firm, which will keep the MPC on hold this year.
- The NY Fed survey suggests the mood among consumers was souring again even before the shutdown.
- The weak labor market and further upward pressure on inflation from tariffs are the most likely culprits.
- Alternative indicators of payrolls are even worse guides to the final estimates than the initial prints.
- The mild inflation uptick in Peru was driven by base effects, underlying price pressures remain in check.
- Economic momentum is holding steady, with construction, credit and labour markets resilient.
- Fiscal discipline and solid external accounts support PEN stability amid mounting political uncertainty.
- Sales growth in the Philippines fell to a 10-month low, but the survey data are improving at least…
- …We’ve cut our 2025 and 2026 CPI forecasts to 1.7% and 2.4%; no momentum in food prices.
- Downside risks are mounting to our already below- consensus 2025-to-26 CPI forecasts for Thailand.
- Ms. Takaichi’s win in Japan’s LDP leadership election reduces the likelihood of a BoJ hike in October.
- China’s FX reserves rose in September, fuelled by non-valuation effects, such as capital inflows.
- We think USD strength and the Fed’s rate path will be the key drivers of China’s FX reserves into early 2026.
- The reversal of tariff front-running is weighing on German export orders, but is the worst over?…
- …Revisions to sales data suggest that industrial output was weaker in Q3 than we thought.
- Early data indicate that EZ industrial production fell by 0.2% in August, partially reversing the rise in July.
- We expect the ONS to publish an initial estimate of an 8K month-to-month payrolls fall in September.
- The unemployment rate should hold at 4.7%, suggesting the labour market is loosening only slowly.
- We look for a strong 0.4% month-to-month gain in private sector ex-bonus AWE in August.
- Indicators from Revelio, QuickBooks and Paychex are all essentially useless guides to official payrolls.
- Combining NFIB, Conference Board and regional Fed survey data is the only way to beat the consensus.
- We look for a 75K rise in September private payrolls, above these surveys, due to residual seasonality.
- The broad-based rise in Brazil’s industrial output in August offers short-term relief, as the risks persist.
- Investment and external demand remain major drags; high interest rates are hurting.
- Weak confidence and US trade frictions will likely continue to weigh on industry.
- GDP growth in Vietnam held steady in Q3 at a robust 8.2%, but mostly thanks to residual noise…
- …Still, fast loan growth poses upside risk to a likely sharper slowdown from the front-loading payback.
- We’ve raised our 2025 and 2026 full-year GDP growth forecasts to 7.7% and 6.5%, respectively.
- France has lost another Prime Minister; how many more times will Mr. Macron play the same hand?
- Eurozone retail sales and Spanish industrial production growth likely slowed in Q3.
- The PMIs point to continued weakness in EZ construction, but investor sentiment is still upbeat.
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 4.0%, almost rounding to 4.1%, in September, from 3.8% in August.
- A motor fuels base effect will add 10bp to inflation compared to August, and core CPI another 14bp.
- The BRC Shop Price Index points to a jump in clothes inflation, while used-car price inflation picked up.
- The impact of AI on labor demand so far looks small, even for the most at-risk occupations.
- The payroll slowdown this year has far more to do with trade and immigration policies.
- Auto sales are set to weaken, as an EV tax credit expires and tariffs start to push up prices.
- Split in BanRep’s Board highlights tension between resilient domestic demand and stubborn inflation.
- Loss of IMF credit line underscores fiscal fragility, fuelling market concerns over Colombia’s credibility.
- Minimum wage talks risk entrenching inflation, limiting BanRep’s scope for near-term easing.
- Indonesia’s trade surplus surprised massively to the upside in August, but largely on seasonal factors…
- …Underlying two-way trade growth continues to ebb; exports are fighting a handful of headwinds.
- Inflation rose above BI’s 2.5% target for the first time in over a year, but a Q4 rate cut is still on the table.
- Swiss inflation held at 0.2% for the third straight month; it will remain stuck near zero until Q2 2026.
- The SNB has said it will ignore negative inflation prints in the near term…
- ...We expect the next rate move to be up, in 2027, despite downside risks to our inflation forecasts.
- Bank of England revises data without explanation, shaking confidence in their numbers.
- Revised DMP data show job falls easing, spare capacity stable and price pressures stubborn.
- Underlying disinflation has ceased according to the DMP so the MPC will have to stay cautious.
