Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor
- A cyclical rise in tax revenues provides an incentive for political brinkmanship to continue in France.
- Industrial output signals upside risk to investment but how will consumers respond to falling incomes?
- Growth in France will drop to the bottom of the pile of the major four economies next year.
- We expect payrolls to fall by 10K in July and August, assuming the usual revisions.
- Vacancies are stable or recovering according to private-sector data; the official data will follow suit.
- Pay growth is moderating only slowly as high inflation expectations and stabilising jobs sustain wage gains.
- We think the core CPI rose by 0.4% in August, as pass-through from the tariffs intensified.
- Adobe’s Digital Price Index—a good guide to a segment of core goods prices—jumped in August.
- Prices for air travel and accommodation services are rebounding from Q2 weakness.
- Chile’s downside inflation surprise strengthens the case for a cautious 25bp policy rate cut today.
- Colombia’s inflation persists, as food and service components push the headline rate above 5%.
- BanRep remains cautious, with structural inflation drivers and fiscal reform clouding the policy outlook.
- Vietnam’s August export figures confirm that the front-loading to the US is well and truly over.
- Our proxy GDP gauge is holding steady from Q2 at 6.8%; ‘official’ growth rate will probably be higher.
- The household sector is still on the mend, finding greater support from the job market.
- The ECB will hold fire this week, as data has swung to the side of the hawks over the past few months.
- The confidence interval around a baseline of a stable deposit rate at 2% next year is widening.
- Rates will be stable or fall in the next six months; then the balance will shift towards no change or hikes.
- Gilt yields have soared, as yields have risen globally and the markets price in UK fiscal risk.
- Elevated inflation expectations partly explain why UK yields have reached their highest since 1998.
- We think market-based expectations are being suppressed by the RPI-CPI transition in 2030.
- ADP reports average monthly private payroll gains of 79K in Q3, up from 22K in Q2...
- ...But the link with the official data is loose and unstable; more reliable indicators remain weak.
- ISM and S&P services surveys point to a renewed rise in services inflation, challenging our base case.
- Growth is steady in Chile, led by resilient services, a mining rebound and capex; net trade is a drag.
- Inflation is easing gradually, but sticky services prices and wage pass-through delay convergence to target.
- The fiscal deficit has widened, and labour market slack and political uncertainty cloud the outlook.
- BNM left the policy rate unchanged at 2.75%, as it remains confident despite US tariffs...
- ...The Bank has seen strong orders for electronics and expects domestic demand to stay robust.
- We’ve slashed our 2025 and 2026 CPI forecasts for Thailand to just -0.1% and 0.3%, respectively.
- Swiss inflation held steady at first glance, but the details are dovish.
- Leading indicators point to a gradual fall in inflation out to year-end, in contrast to the SNB’s forecasts.
- It’s a close call, but we think the risks to the outlook tip the balance towards a final rate cut this month.
- We expect GDP to be unchanged in July, as services output and industrial production stagnate.
- Activity in the construction sector likely fell, following the lead from chronically weak business sentiment.
- Our call points to quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.2% in Q3, below the MPC’s forecast, with risks skewed up.
- Home equity lending has grown considerably in recent years, but remains a shadow of its former self.
- Weak confidence, tight lending standards, and falling home prices suggest a big spending boost is unlikely.
- Fewer job openings than unemployed people for the first time since April 2021 will suppress wage growth.
- Brazilian Real — Resilient, but volatility is persisting
- Mexican Peso — Stable, but capped by external noise
- Colombian Peso — Early rebound before consolidation
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI rose more comfortably above 50 in August, to 51.0…
- …Consolidation above 50 is looking likely, with short-term leading indicators recovering in tandem.
- But downside risks prevail over the long run; for now, we’ve yet to see firms cut prices to fight tariffs.
- The August RatingDog services PMI flashed a warning signal about job losses, despite strong activity.
- A court ruling on mandatory social security payments is the likely culprit, leading firms to trim workers.
- Local governments probably won't fully enforce the rule, but the uncertainty created is hitting jobs already.
- The fall in Italian GDP in Q2 was confirmed; net trade fell but investment remained resilient
- We now expect Italian GDP to rise in Q3 and Q4, though this still means just 0.6% growth this year.
- The government in France will fall on Monday, but look closely and public finances are now improving.
- The PMI rose to a 12-month high in August, boosted by falling policy uncertainty.
- The PMI signals 0.3% quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q3, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- The MPC’s hands will be tied for the rest of 2025, as growth at potential limits spare capacity emerging.
- Brazil’s Q2 GDP growth slowed sharply, as temporary supports fade and monetary tightening bites.
- Household consumption and services showed resilience, but capex saw renewed weakness.
- Peru’s inflation is firmly anchored, giving BCRP flexibility to balance demand and external uncertainty.
- We expect CPI inflation to hold at 3.8% in August, as a jump in food prices offsets a correction in airfares.
- We see upside risk to our call after strong flash Eurozone food CPI inflation.
- Gilts suffer from a global sell-off and UK-specific risks; Ms. Reeves needs to aim for proper fiscal headroom.
