Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Stronger utility price inflation boosted CPI inflation to 2.2% year-over-year in July.
- Services inflation fell to 5.2%, below the consensus, 5.5%, driven by erratic airfares and hotel prices.
- Gradually slowing services inflation points to more rate cuts, but the MPC will wait until November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- PCE-relevant components of the PPI collectively rose in July at the slowest rate for 11 months.
- Hospital services prices will rebound soon, but core goods prices will drop as retailers’ margins contract.
- We look for a weak July retail sales report Thursday, with the control measure falling by 0.3%.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The July collapse in inflation in India below the key 4.0% mark, alone, won’t matter to RBI policy.
- A tepid bounce in August, however, with vegetable prices now correcting, would support calls for a cut.
- We also think that this month’s Q2 GDP will disappoint heavily; our final forecast is 6.0%
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China's total social financing growth ticked up in July, but credit demand remained very weak.
- Net new loans fell for first time in 19 years, with notable weakness in household and business lending.
- The PBoC are trying hard to raise long-term bond yields, but we will wait to see if that can be sustained.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The Eurostoxx 50 is currently priced for negative medium-term returns, based on book value.
- Margins are a wild card for EZ equities, but unless they remain near record highs, prices will fall further.
- We look for a further 5-to-10% decline in EZ equities as margins compress and earnings growth slows.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC will be encouraged that wage growth is slowing in line with its forecast for Q2.
- Rate-setters will downplay the still unreliable unemployment rate, which fell to 4.2% in June.
- But a range of data shows robust employment, which suggests the MPC will cut rates only slowly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- July PPI data likely to reverse to June’s jump in retailers’ gross margins; a profit squeeze lies ahead.
- The NFIB survey likely will show small firms remain under intense pressure from high interest rates.
- Inflation expectations are trending down, but the plunge in the NY Fed’s three-year measure is noise.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Italy’s new wealth tax on foreign income will help public finances but won’t balance the books…
- ...Spending needs to come down, and significantly, to get Italy away from a near 6% deficit this year.
- As expected, the SNB intervened to stem the rise in the franc last week; more CHF sales will be needed.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We estimate that last week’s financial market volatility will cut 1 point off August’s PMI services.
- Strong new orders and firms’ confidence means the PMI services should still rise two points in August.
- The financial ructions are likely to have sliced just two points off consumers’ confidence.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Base effects were behind the Philippines’ consensus-matching Q2 GDP print, nothing more.
- Consumption is now in a shallow recession, while the post-Covid catch-up in capex is still struggling.
- We have raised our forecasts, but still see GDP growth slowing to 5.4% this year and 5.2% in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Chinese export growth surprised the market to the downside, as monthly momentum faded in July.
- Export recovery was dual-track, driven by high-tech demand, while low-tech shipments remain dull.
- Bond-selling by Chinese banks indicates short-term market intervention, probably under PBoC guidance.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Mexico and Chile face rising inflation, amid global turmoil and economic uncertainty.
- Banxico and the BCCh will struggle to balance headline inflation control with economic growth needs.
- Adverse weather and global issues complicate the inflation outlook, but Fed easing will bring relief.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The first estimate of GDP growth was positive at the start of the last three normal recessions...
- ...Payrolls provided a much better near-real time guide; they are not flashing bright red, for now.
- Initial claims still point to a resilient economy, but a run of higher prints this autumn remains likely.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- July PAYE employment should gain 30K month-to-month, while the June jobless rate rises to 4.5%.
- We think May AWE growth being revised up is a decent bet and we factor in a 0.2% bump.
- So we expect Q2 year-over-year private-sector AWE ex. bonuses growth 20bp above the MPC’s forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Swiss industry likely had another tough quarter in Q2 and services turnover data to May disappoint.
- We doubt GDP fell, however, as implied by the PMI; it has underestimated growth since Q4 2022.
- We have pencilled in zero growth in Switzerland in Q2, after a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Thai CPI surprised marginally to the upside in July, with headline rate rising to 0.8% and core to 0.5%.
- The mean-reversion up in food prices should see inflation return temporarily to target-range until Q1.
- Core inflation is likely to remain under 1%, though; the weak economy will keep this gauge anchored.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- CPI inflation in the UK likely rose to 2.3% in July, from 2.0% in June, 0.1pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- The rise will be due to easing utility price deflation, as Ofgem cut the price cap less than in July 2023.
- We expect CPI services inflation to slow to 5.5% but uncertainty is high because of volatile hotel prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- German manufacturing output rebounded modestly in June, but likely fell back in July.
- Hard data are now consistent with the reported GDP decline in Q2, but what happened to consumption?
- We’re nudging down our Q3 GDP growth forecast in Germany by 0.1pp to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Brazilian Real — Challenges amidst easing external woes
- Mexican Peso — Hurt by yen carry trade and global noise
- Chilean Peso — Resilient despite copper price declines
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- We look for a decline in initial claims to 235K, from 249K, as the boost from Hurricane Beryl wears off...
- ...The trend in initial claims is rising, but daily Homebase employment data present no cause for panic.
- The latest plunge in Treasury yields likely will support housing market activity only marginally.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
