Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor
- Japan’s September flash PMIs reveal worsening manufacturing woes, despite lower US tariffs.
- Services activity remains strong, even though extreme weather dented tourism activity.
- We think the BoJ will hike the policy rate next month, though it will be a close call amid political risks.
- The IFO fell in September, offsetting temporary optimism after the jump in the PMI earlier.
- German surveys remain consistent with decent near-term growth in manufacturing and services.
- We still see weak growth in H2 2025, but the upturn in real M1 growth promises a much better 2026.
- The ONS’s measure of house prices dropped by 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis in July.
- Forward-looking indicators for the housing market suggest that activity will remain muted in H2.
- The November Budget represents a wild card for house prices, as rumours of property-tax hikes swirl.
- The composite PMI is alone in signalling a return to 3% GDP growth in Q3; its margin of error is wide.
- But the signal of slowing producer price inflation is reliable, consistent with a transitory tariff impact.
- We think new home sales dropped back in August, adding to the woes of homebuilders.
- Mexico’s industrial and services activity fell sharply in July, confirming fragile momentum ahead in H2.
- Retail sales show modest resilience, but tight credit and a weakening job market weigh on consumption.
- US support is stabilising the Argentinian peso for the moment, but structural fragilities still loom.
- India’s flash PMIs only stumbled in September; no big tariff hit or boost from goods and service tax…
- …The complete numbers for Q3 point to GDP growth of 7.4%, posing upside risks to our 7.0% call.
- Malaysian inflation ticked up in August; we see increased upward risks for the rest of the year.
- The EZ composite PMI rose further in September, but the details were weaker than the headline.
- The outlook for services is improving, but new orders in manufacturing warn of a Q4 slowdown in output.
- ECB doves will need a clearer sign of weakness in the PMIs to push their case for a Q4 insurance cut.
- The PMI’s headline activity index fell in September and signals quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.1% in Q3...
- ...But the PMI has been more erratic lately than usual, so we retain our call for growth of 0.2% in Q3.
- Easing price pressures will encourage the MPC, but solid growth will limit emergence of spare capacity.
- The openings-to-U6 ratio has fallen materially this year, and job switchers are no longer rewarded.
- The NFIB, regional Fed, Indeed and NY Fed consumer surveys all signal slower wage growth ahead.
- The tariffs are chiefly responsible; wage growth has slowed most at businesses on the front line.
- Core services inflation remains sticky in Mexico, keeping Banxico’s easing gradual.
- External drivers support activity, while domestic demand and capex continue to struggle.
- Fiscal prudence and stable MXN provide cover for gradual easing, but trade risks remain elevated.
- Presidents Xi and Trump’s phone call last Friday to talk about trade paved the way for a summit in October.
- Korean 20-day WDA exports fell sharply in September, thanks to weaker demand across most destinations.
- Most Korean goods are still subject to higher tariffs than pre-Trump. We expect the BoK to cut in Q4.
- EURUSD has remained stronger than we anticipated; we are raising our forecasts.
- We still look for near-term weakness in EURUSD, but we’re lifting our forecast for end-2026, to 1.17.
- If EURUSD rises to 1.20-to-1.25 in Q4 this year, ECB rate cuts would come swiftly back on to the agenda.
- The public finances deteriorated in August; borrowing is now drifting well above profile.
- Weak receipts account for most of the fiscal underperformance so far this year.
- We think the Government has to raise £25B to restore the paltry £9.9B of fiscal headroom.
- Copom holds the Selic rate steady, signalling vigilance, but hinting peak rates are now behind us.
- A firmer BRL and easing inflation expectations reinforce the case for gradual cuts from December.
- Recovery stalls in Argentina as demand weakens, credit fades, and recession risks rise.
- Taiwan's central bank kept the discount rate at 2.000% yesterday, which was no surprise to anyone.
- Economic growth is likely to be much stronger in Q3; we have upgraded our forecast to 8.4%.
- Strong export growth is reducing the need for a rate cut, notwithstanding weak consumption.
- It will be a close call but we see more reasons for the SNB to cut its key policy rate next week than to hold.
- Inflation is low and set to fall, while other tools will not be as effective in fighting deflationary pressures.
- We look for the Swiss central bank to cut by 25bp to -0.25%, leaving it the lowest policy rate in the world.
- The MPC kept rates on hold at September’s meeting, as consensus and the markets expected.
- The minutes were fractionally more hawkish than in August; we continue to expect no more cuts this year.
- The pace of quantitative tightening will be slowed to £70B in 2025/26, from £100B in 2024/25.
- The median FOMC participant expects to ease by a further 50bp this year, but several envisage less.
- The risks to the FOMC’s unemployment forecast are skewed to the upside; rates will fall to 3% next year.
- Last week’s surge in mortgage refinancing is unlikely to endure; new rates are still too high.
- Brazil — Noise driven by US tariffs and Bolsonaro fallout
- Mexico — Sovereignty, trade and security
- Colombia — Tensions rise ahead of 2026 vote
- Bank Indonesia shocked the consensus—yet again—with a third straight 25bp BI rate cut.
- Indian export growth barely moved in August, masking a bigger nosedive in shipments to the US.
- Talks with Washington have resumed amid a drop in India’s oil imports; lower tariffs in Q4 still possible.
