- BanRep has cut rates in a split decision, balancing inflation concerns with growth expectations.
- We expect further rate cuts in H2, assuming stable policy/political risk and benign external conditions.
- The labour market remains resilient, but weakening key sectors indicate challenges ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Revisions to Homebase data and the latest business surveys support our 125K private payrolls forecast.
- High rates are increasingly subduing construction; private fixed investment likely was unchanged in Q2.
- Manufacturing continues to struggle, with little sign of that changing anytime soon.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Markets are rallying on the prospect of no RN majority in France, but it’s bit too soon to cheer.
- Eurozone inflation fell further in June, and risks are tilted towards a downside surprise.
- German core inflation is now on a near-straight path towards 2% by the end of the year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Money and credit data for May suggest consumption and investment will drive brisk GDP growth.
- Consumers’ reducing the amount they save to pre-Covid norms suggests they are willing to spend.
- Firms raised £10.4B of external finance in the past three months, above the £7.2B 2015-to-19 average.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Still stagnating, no recovery in sight.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Struggling as domestic demand falters.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Struggling as domestic demand falters.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Soft, and further declines are likely over the summer.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Headline and core inflation fell in June.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Food disinflation intensifies, returning the headline back to BI’s target.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Mixed picture for China's manufacturers
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Mixed picture for China's manufacturers
Japanese and Korean firms hit by mounting import costs
Korean exports lifted by AI-chip demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
ASEAN manufacturing ends H1 on a solid note
Food disinflation in Indonesia intensifies, returning the headline rate back to BI’s target
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
PMI's June surge tells us nothing about the national picture.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
The economy’s main engine of growth is looking a lot weaker.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: A mixed performance, with activity struggling, but the job market remains resilient for now.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
