- Both July manufacturing PMIs indicate declining activity, especially the dip in the Caixin PMI.
- Extreme weather is only partly to blame; domestic demand is weak, as the growth model is revamped.
- China will keep adjusting incremental stimulus until growth is back on track at the “about 5%” target.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Eurozone unemployment rose slightly in June, but the underlying trend is still flat.
- Surveys point to downside risks to employment growth and upside risks to unemployment in H2…
- …Yet our own GDP growth forecasts point to a better near-term outlook.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC cut rates 25bp as consensus expected, but surprised markets with dovish words and forecasts.
- The MPC cut its mode two-year inflation forecast to 1.7%, and ditched services inflation as a lode star.
- We expect one more cut this year and three in 2025 as inflation runs above the MPC’s mode forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Export-led manufacturing recovery powers investment growth.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Further increases in jobless claims are on the horizon.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Higher, but core inflation fell back.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
China's official PMIs point to stagnating manufacturing activity
Duncan WrigleyChina+
BoJ raises the policy rate ahead of market expectations
Duncan WrigleyChina+
BoJ raises the policy rate ahead of market expectations
China's official PMIs point to stagnating manufacturing activity & slump in construction demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Politburo calls for incremental policy measures, but no bazooka
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Confidence improves, but the fundamentals are still shaky.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
WAGES AND SERVICES INFLATION REMAIN ELEVATED
- ...BUT THE MPC WILL CUT IN SEPTEMBER, IF NOT IN AUGUST
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Resilient but slowing, amid domestic and external challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: A smaller q/q increase than we thought.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Continuing to outperform; inflation fell further than expected in July.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- US - Q2’s rapid growth is unsustainable; expect a slowdown ahead
- EUROZONE - Solid Q2 GDP headline in the EZ, but the details are on the soft side
- UK - MPC preview: Almost ready to cut interest rates, cautiously
- CHINA+ - BoJ likely to move cautiously, mindful of fragile growth
- EM ASIA - Should we start to worry even more about inflation in India?
- LATAM - Trade balances improve in LatAm amid weaker currencies
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Chair Powell says a September easing “could be on the table”, now that labor market risks loom larger.
- Growth in employment costs slowed in Q2, and a further softening in wage growth ahead looks likely.
- The July ISM survey probably will show manufacturing is still treading water; claims are a wildcard today.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Q2 GDP growth in Taiwan surprised to the upside, coming in at 5.1%, after 6.6% in Q1...
- ...Benefiting from higher external demand for AI-related manufacturing and investment.
- We now expect stronger 2024 GDP growth, at 4.1%, compared to 3.7% previously.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
