EZ LEADING INDICATORS ARE THROWING OFF MIXED SIGNALS
- ...WHICH ONES SHOULD YOU TRUST?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- June's muted core PCE deflator likely will be followed by sustained benign readings.
- Consumption will slow further, as the labor market weakens and the savings rate creeps up.
- July's regional Fed services surveys also support the case for a rapid easing of monetary policy.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- LatAm policymakers face complex challenges due to inflation, currency volatility and policy uncertainty.
- Brazil will likely hold rates, as the currency sell-off and fiscal concerns dampen easing expectations.
- The central banks in the Andes will continue to cut rates, on the back of stable inflation and poor growth.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The output price sub-indices of India’s July PMIs spike d, but it would be premature to raise a red flag.
- Indonesia’s July CPI should see inflation falling below the 2.5% target, on further food disinflation.
- We look for a small drop in ASEAN’s July PMI, as a couple of the big exporters look overstretched.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoJ will probably placate currency investors by cutting back bond-buying on Wednesday...
- ...But will likely stay put on the policy rate, in order to prop up growth and foster demand-pull inflation.
- Tokyo headline inflation edged down in July, though core inflation excluding fresh food inched up.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Brace for the Q2 GDP data and July inflation figures, after a busy week for surveys last week.
- EZ headline inflation likely was unchanged in July, but we think core inflation dipped further.
- Italy’s first survey data for July were not as downbeat as those for France and Germany.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- GDP growth continues to outperform consensus estimates and MPC projections.
- Services inflation remains elevated and is overshooting forecasts by a widening margin.
- We think the MPC will wait and cut Bank Rate in September, but it is a very close call.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Edging down, in line with deteriorating overall business sentiment in France and Germany
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Stable, but unemployment fears are creeping higher.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Tokyo consumer inflation unlikely to trouble the BoJ
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo consumer inflation unlikely to trouble the BoJ
Duncan WrigleyChina+
A big bounce in net goods trade will help Thailand's Q2 GDP
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A mixed bag for the MPC as inflation slows but employment and business confidence surge.
Samuel TombsUK
HOUSE PRICES DEFY HIGH INTEREST RATES...
- ...WE EXPECT 4% HOUSE-PRICE INFLATION IN 2024
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
The underlying trend in equipment investment looks weak, despite the bumper Q2 headline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: CBI orders and prices fall in July, but both should rebound in August.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)UK
The PBoC's surprise MLF rate cut rams home China's re-orientation towards short-term growth support; fiscal policy tweaks
Duncan WrigleyChina+
