Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Malaysia’s export growth surprised to the upside in May, thanks to a sharp rise in electronics exports…
- …This more than compensated for a fall in commodity exports and a drag from re-exports.
- Adverse base effects aside, electronics exports still has more fuel in the tank for a further recovery.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng on Wednesday hinted the Bank is likely to start bond trading.
- The definition of M1 will probably be broadened, after the dramatic plunge in May.
- The Bank expects credit growth to remain slow, given China’s changing economic growth model.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The SNB cut rates for the second straight meeting, and lowered its inflation forecasts...
- ...We look for another 50bp-worth of rate cuts this year, more than financial markets
- expect.
The Bank will have to match ECB cuts to prevent a significant appreciation of the CHF and deflation.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC voted seven-to-two to keep interest rates on hold, as expected.
- The minutes of the meeting give the strong impression that the MPC is itching to cut rates.
- We stick to our call that the MPC will wait until September, but August is very much live.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Gradual rate cuts, with potential pauses, amid temporary inflation pressures and economic recovery.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Gradual rate cuts, with potential pauses, amid temporary inflation pressures and economic recovery.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: House prices keep rising despite higher mortgage rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Persistent services inflation means more delay to rate cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Q1 wasn’t as good as previously thought, and output will fall back in Q2.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Boosted by a rebound in the surpluses of goods and services.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Japan's exports buoyed by US and Chinese demand, despite falling shipments to the EU
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Q2 exports now look salvageable, after a sturdy May.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- Rent rises for new tenants have slowed sharply; the feared catch-up in CPI rent inflation is unlikely.
- We expect annualized CPI housing inflation to slow to 3-to-4% over the next few quarters.
- Q2 consumption is on course for a modest 2%, similar to Q1, after May's lacklustre retail sales data.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil — Lula’s political skills put to the test
- Mexico — Sheinbaum’s judicial reform rattles markets
- Argentina — Milei’s uphill battle, despite approval
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The 2024 volatility in Indonesian exports continued in May, this time resulting in a hefty bounce-back…
- …The overall trend is still range-bound though, and China’s uneven recovery continues to pose a risk.
- We have upgraded our current account forecast, with real import demand deteriorating further.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BTP-Bund spread has risen in line with French spreads; it will increase further but then fall to 100bp.
- France and Italy are in an EDP, no surprise here; any new French government has limited spending room.
- Political uncertainty will keep the EURUSD below 1.10 for now, but 1.18 by year-end is a decent bet.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- CPI inflation returned to the 2.0% target in May, for the first time since July 2021…
- …But CPI services inflation overshot the MPC’s forecast by 0.4pp, more than the 0.3pp miss in April.
- So, we push back our call for the first MPC rate cut to September, from August previously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Transport, hospitality and insurance are key drivers of sticky services inflation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Transport, hospitality and insurance are key drivers of sticky services inflation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
