- Colombia’s BanRep cut interest rates again, signalling continued easing amid falling inflation.
- The Board adopted a more dovish stance, paving the way for an accelerated normalisation, if needed.
- Chile’s IMACEC index is sending mixed signals;mining shows signs of life but services struggle.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The MPC will cut gradually, next in November and then in February.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Still depressed; core goods prices likely to keep falling.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: The PMI dips in September on Budget uncertainty, but output growth remains strong.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Fall in core confirmed & headline below the ECB’s target; October’s rate cut is a go
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Fall in core confirmed & headline below the ECB’s target; October’s rate cut is a go
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Recession in EZ industry rumbles on.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Recession in EZ industry rumbles on.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Japanese manufacturers' sentiment is steady
Korean underlying export growth remains strong
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Much more food disinflation ahead.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Export-oriented manufacturers hit a speed-bump at the end of Q3.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Export-oriented manufacturers in ASEAN hit a speed-bump at the end of Q3
Much more food disinflation ahead in Indonesia
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The 50bp pace of rate cuts continues amid mixed economic signals and a cautious inflation outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: The 50bp pace of rate cuts continues amid mixed economic signals and a cautious inflation outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- US - Only three indicators are useful in payroll forecasting; all are flawed
- UK -CPI inflation will be boosted by duties and school fees
- EM Asia-Thailand’s smaller cash handout will be even more trivial for growth
- EZ -October’s rate cut is on; deposit rate set to end 2024 at 3%
- LatAm - Banxico cuts rates as expected, opening door for further easing
- China+ - China’s policy shift puts growth target in reach; bold reforms lacking
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI fell to a seven-month low in September, as bad weather hit big exporters.
- The downward surprise in Indonesia’s September CPI has more legs than the upward core surprise.
- Indian core IP growth has plunged into the red for the first time since early 2021; all eyes on the RBI.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Headline inflation in the EZ fell below the ECB’s target in September for the first time since 2021.
- Deeper energy deflation was the main drag, but core inflation also eased a touch.
- We look for the ECB to cut twice more this year, by 25bp in both October and December.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Sharply falling motor fuel prices will drag down CPI inflation to 1.9% in September, from 2.2% in August.
- Core goods inflation should hold at 0.3% year-over-year, but BRC Shop Prices pose a downside risk.
- We expect core and services inflation close to theMPC’s August Monetary Policy Report forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
