Manufacturing recovery fizzling out before it has even begun.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Under pressure on a sequential basis.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Under pressure on a sequential basis.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A landslide victory for Ms Sheinbaum.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Manufacturing growth leaps and feeds through to modest price inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The quits rate likely remained just below its 2015-to-19 average in April, signalling slower ECI growth ahead.
- Construction spending has stagnated this year, the boom in S&L and manufacturing spending is over.
- The ISM manufacturing slipped again in May. And a plunge in new orders signals more bad news ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Claudia Sheinbaum makes history after being elected as Mexico’s first female president.
- Ms. Sheinbaum’s victory was expected, but a potential MORENA supermajority brings uncertainty.
- The Chilean economic activity index rebounded in April, but disappointing details point to rate cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The ECB will cut its policy rate by 25bp this week, but the communication will be hawkish.
- How does the ECB stay open to further easing without pre-committing to cuts? We’re about to find out.
- We see little change to the ECB’s near-term inflation forecasts, assuming it is omitting the May HICP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect PAYE employment to rise 20K in May and April’s fall to be revised close to no change.
- We think private-sector AWE will leap 0.8% month-to-month in April as the NLW hike feeds through.
- Risks are skewed to an even stronger wage print, challenging our call that the MPC will cut rates in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
LATER RATE CUTS SLOW THE HOUSING MARKET RECOVERY...
- ...WE EXPECT HOUSE PRICES TO RISE ONLY 3% IN 2024
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
PERSISTENCE PERSISTS...
- ...THE MPC WILL CUT IN AUGUST, THEN ONCE A QUARTER
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
LATAM RECOVERY REMAINS SUBPAR...
- ...BUT LOW INFLATION IS ALLOWING GRADUAL INTEREST RATE CUTS
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
THE FIRST ECB RATE CUT IS COMING...
- …BUT A JULY CUT IS OUT, AND SEPTEMBER IS AT RISK TOO
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
TAIWAN’S PUNCHY Q1 GDP IS AS GOOD AS IT’LL GET
- …ELECTION TAILWINDS IN INDONESIA’S Q1 ARE IRREPLICABLE
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, May
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's Caixin PMI rises, thanks to robust consumer goods output
Korean manufacturing PMI hits a two-year high
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Food disinflation is intensifying.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
