China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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China likely to step up fiscal and monetary policy support, allow weaker RMB, in response to hefty US tariff hike;
Caixin services activity rises
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korean export growth accelerated in March, but due to post-holiday effects and front-loading or orders.
- The manufacturing PMI slipped in March, despite a robust new export order reading.
- Firms are worried about tariff hikes and political risks, with the impeachment ruling due on Friday.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s official March PMIs showed lasting, though waning, stimulus support for activity.
- The manufacturing index is still above 50, but sentiment slipped ahead of likely US tariff hikes today.
- Construction new orders dived, raising questions about local-government investment activity.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's manufacturing PMI nudges up, but sentiment ebbs
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's manufacturing PMI nudges up, but sentiment ebbs; construction order slump is worrying
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo inflation picks up, but the BoJ's immediate focus will be on US auto tariffs
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo inflation picks up, but the BoJ's immediate focus will be on US auto tariffs
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Tokyo inflation rose in March, due to higher goods and se vices inflation despite cooling fresh food inflation.
- April inflation is likely to jump after energy subsidies expire, while non-perishable food inflation rises.
- Still, the BoJ, focusing on the impact of higher US auto tariffs, is likely to keep the policy rate steady on May 1.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China appears to be prioritising RMB stability over rate cuts, after decent activity data at the start of the year.
- Industrial profits saw tangible improvements in the first two months, led by rising manufacturing demand.
- The stimulus-led profit growth recovery in China will face significant headwinds from rising trade tensions.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- - CHINA CRANKS UP FISCAL SUPPORT; LIKELY MORE TO COME
- - BOJ SHIFTING TO HAWKISH BIAS AS FOOD INFLATION RISES
- - KOREA CHIP EXPORTS UNDER COMPETITIVE PRESSURE
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Korean consumer sentiment faltered again in March, due to worries about growth and job prospects.
- Business sentiment is faring better, at least in the tech sector; profitability is still under pressure, however.
- WDA 20-day exports rebounded in March, thanks to chip exports reviving after the Lunar New Year holiday.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
PBoC prioritising RMB defence over rate cuts, after decent activity data in the first two months
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ is likely to persist with two more rate hikes this year, despite early warning signals about growth.
- Japanese business sentiment sank to its lowest since January 2021 in yesterday’s composite flash PMI.
- Broadening food inflation is likely to prop up consumer inflation, pointing towards the risk of stagflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Korean exports regain their vim after the holiday, led by semiconductor shipments
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan’s consumer inflation slows as energy subsidies kick in
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's inflation slows due to energy subsidies
Korea's 20-day WDA exports rebound led by chip exports, but the outlook is murky
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The structural adjustment in China’s residential property market is inching towards a resolution.
- The government isn’t bailing out developers but is pushing to resolve excess home-supply issues.
- More policy support for residential demand is a likely response to trade-war escalation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ left rates unchanged at yesterday’s meeting, citing the evolving external situation as a new risk.
- The Bank considers developments in domestic wages and prices are in line with it achieving its policy target.
- We continue to expect two more hikes in 2025, taking rates to 1%, with the next rise in Q2.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s key activity data for the first two months of 2025 beat market expectations on all fronts.
- Local governments have stepped up investment, while manufacturing is roaring ahead.
- But consumption spending is making only gradual progress; funding is key to the new plan.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's local governments get the memo on boosting domestic demand
Consumption makes modest improvements, as the trade storm looms
Duncan WrigleyChina+
