- Japan’s central bank left the policy rate unchanged yesterday, with one dissenter voting for a rate hike.
- Governor Ueda was less hawkish; he needs more clarity on wages and Mr. Trump’s policy before hiking.
- The BoJ didn’t want to tie its hands, keeping a January hike alive while making March plausible.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s activity data largely disappointed the market, especially consumption and investment.
- A ray of light in the property sector, with new- and second-home prices falling at a much slower pace.
- The President’s CEWC speech pointed to expansion of existing stimulus to boost domestic demand.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s Central Economic Work Conference is ‘all hat and no cattle’; consumption is the sole priority in 2025.
- The authorities seem to have run out of new ideas to boost the economy in the face of external uncertainty.
- In 2025, expect monetary policy easing, the budget deficit ceiling to be raised and more structural reforms.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China headline consumer inflation is on the brink of deflation, but core inflation offers a ray of hope.
- Producer price deflation is narrowing on stimulus related construction material production.
- China needs to unleash more demand-side policies to see a sustained recovery.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s Politburo signalled a change in monetary policy stance to “moderately loose” from “prudent”.
- Further mentions of a consumption boost still don’t mean large-scale We stern-style handouts are likely.
- The Politburo’s mindset on structural issues hasn’t changed; we expect a December RRR cut .
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Japan's nominal wage growth is steady
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Recent USDCNY weakness is largely a reflection of broad dollar strength…
- …But also falling Chinese government-bond yields, after an effective deposit-rate cut.
- November’s Caixin services PMI points to resilient activity but deflation pressure.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: China’s non-manufacturing growth stalls in November as construction weighs on activity.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s stimulus continues to give manufacturing activity a modest lift amid looming geopolitical uncertainty
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Korea’s WDA exports rebound in November, but looming protectionist risks loom over growth.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan’s Q3 GDP is a mixed bag, with private consumption surprising on the upside but business investment falling.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's credit growth slows to historic lows amid muted household and business loan demand
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China's deflation risks persist in October, but there is a silver lining
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s headline producer deflation masks stimulus-driven price upticks in construction materials
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s CPI near deflation weighed down by volatile items; uptick in services inflation
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s Q3 current account surplus widens; inward FDI remains negative for second consecutive quarter
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: One month’s data can be misleading; China's quarterly export growth has, in fact, decelerated.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s foreign reserves drop in October amid dollar strength and outflow pressures.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan’s wage growth holds steady, supporting case for BoJ hike in early 2025; Our revised forecasts post-Trump victory show weaker growth
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s real household spending fell further in October as people tighten their purse strings.
- Consumer sentiment dipped slightly in November, held back by willingness to buy durable goods.
- The BoJ will probably hike rates this month, as long as market risks from Korean politics are contained.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
