CHINA+ DATA WRAP 24 September 2025: Japan's manufacturing weakening

Japan's flash PMIs reveal divergence between weakening manufacturing sector and resilient services activity

25 September 2025 China+ Monitor Japan's manufacturing sector yet to see tariff relief, despite US deal

• Japan’s September flash PMIs reveal worsening manufacturing woes, despite lower US tariffs.
• Services activity remains strong, even though extreme weather dented tourism activity.
• We think the BoJ will hike the policy rate next month, though it will be a close call amid political risks.

23 September 2025 China+ Monitor Xi-Trump call: Trust rebuilding, finer TikTok details still being ironed out

• Presidents Xi and Trump’s phone call last Friday to talk about trade paved the way for a summit in October.
• Korean 20-day WDA exports fell sharply in September, thanks to weaker demand across most destinations.
• Most Korean goods are still subject to higher tariffs than pre-Trump. We expect the BoK to cut in Q4.

22 September 2025 China+ Monitor The BoJ stands fast on policy rate, plans sales of stock ETFs

• The BoJ held the policy rate steady on Friday, as broadly expected; but two dissenters wanted a hike.
• We expect a 25bp hike in October, though it will be a knife-edge decision amid political and trade risks.
• The Bank said it will offload its ETFs and Japan REITs but at a glacial pace to minimise market impact.

18 September 2025 China+ Monitor Hong Kong Policy Address fast- tracks Northern Metropolis

• Hong Kong Policy Address proposes to strengthen technology ties with the mainland and boost growth.
• Japan’s annual export growth fell for the fourth straight month, but monthly momentum improves.
• BoJ will keep rates on hold this week, but we expect it to resume its rate hike cycle in late October.

17 September 2025 China+ Monitor China's tier-one cities enjoy modest uptick in property sales

• China’s national residential market continues to fester, as policymakers stick with only targeted support.
• Tier-one city sales are rising on the back of local easing but national sales are still falling.
• More national-level support is likely to be needed to stabilise the market, notably in lower-tier cities.

16 September 2025 China+ Monitor China's ailing domestic demand likely to prompt targeted support

• China’s August activity data pointed to a broad cooling, especially in domestic demand.
• Fixed-asset investment weakened further, making RMB500B in policy bank funding tools likely.
• Prospects are rising for another round of coordinated targeted stimulus, possibly at the end of September.

China+ Datanote: Money & Credit, China, August

In one line: lacklustre broad credit growth, excluding government bonds

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 September 2025: China's August broad activity cooling

In one line: China's August broad activity cooling likely to prompt additional targeted support

15 September 2025 China+ Monitor China's dull credit growth points to still sluggish investment

• China’s broad credit growth slowed slightly in August, with seemingly dull private sector credit demand.
• Rising M1 growth is a probably a sign of funds returning from the bond market.
• No smoking gun yet in terms of fund leakage into the stock market via unofficial channels.

China+ Datanote: FX Reserves, China, August

In one line: Valuation effects lift China’s FX reserves in August; expect them to drive reserves higher in H2

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, August

In one line: China exports slow on low-tech weakness; US, Africa and LatAM slump offsets ASEAN strength

China+ Datanote: Wages, Japan, July

In one line: Japan's real wage turned positive for the first time in seven months, paving the way for an October BoJ hike.

China+ Datanote: Flash Services PMI, Japan, August

In one line: Japan’s private sector activity posts its fastest rise since February, with broad based services and manufacturing improvements.

China+ Datanote: Flash Mfg PMI, Japan, August

In one line: Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI nears 50, boosted largely by domestic demand.

China+ Datanote: Exports, Japan, July

In one line: Japan’s export show strain from tariffs, with cars and steel leading declines.

China+ Datanote: 20-Day Exports, Korea, August

In one line: Korea’s 20-day exports rebound in August, monthly momentum firms despite fading US front-loading.

China+ Datanote: Preliminary GDP, Japan, Q2

In one line: Japan Q2 GDP: Net trade and business investment lift growth; likely to bolster BoJ’s determination to hike.

China+ Datanote: PPI, China, July

In one line: China’s producer prices continue to fall amid involution and weak demand

China+ Datanote: CPI, China, July

In one line: China’s CPI stays flat in July as disinflation pressure lingers on weak demand