8 November 2024 China+ Monitor China's calibrated response to the return of President Trump

• Mr. Trump’s win likely means China’s NPC will today approve only modest stimulus to boost confidence.
• But a bigger multi-year package is likely on the way, with more leeway to mitigate the impact of tariffs.
• The BoJ is likely to favour growth with a slower pace of rate hikes but be alert to the risk of JPY weakness.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

6 November 2024 China+ Monitor China's service sector ticks up, thanks to policy lift to sentiment

• China’s October Caixin services PMI points to stronger activity in the month.
• Services firms’ sentiment is reviving, as policy support lifts consumption and some property sales.
• But the longevity of this burgeoning rebound hinges on further policy support, with news likely on Friday.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 5 November 2024: Caixin services PMI points to activity uptick

Caixin services PMI points to activity uptick

Duncan WrigleyChina+

4 November 2024 China+ Monitor China's PMIs point to stimulus gradually gaining purchase

• Both of China’s October PMIs suggest that fiscal stimulus is star ting to take effect.
• The output price indices also rose, though it’s too early to pop a cork over China’s deflation fight.
• The PBoC’s new liquidity tool provides more flexibility in managing long-term funding.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: BoJ Policy Decision, Japan, October

The BoJ stays pat and Governor Ueda keeps options open

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China+ Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, October

China’s existing stimulus produces initial results, as state sector heeds strong policy signals 

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CHINA+ DATA WRAP 31 October 2024: China's stimulus lifts manufacturing PMI

China's stimulus lifts manufacturing PMI
BoJ stays pat and Governor Ueda keeps options open

Duncan WrigleyChina+

1 November 2024 China+ Monitor BoJ keeps options open, amid political risks at home and abroad

• The BoJ left the policy rate on hold yesterday, at 0.25%, as expected given the recent election.
• Governor Ueda was deliberately vague about signalling the timing of the next rate hike.
• China’s October official PMI shows fiscal stimulus gaining traction, led by large enterprises.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Flash Manufacturing PMI, Japan, October

Flash manufacturing PMI shows weakening demand across the board

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 24 October 2024: Japan's flash composite PMI emits warning sign

Japan's flash composite PMI emits warning signal 
Flash manufacturing PMI reports weakening demand across the board
Services sector activity cools dramatically

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 18 October 2024: China's GDP growth picked up in Q3

China picked up in Q3, but GDP growth will still need to double q/q in Q4 to get close to full-year target

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: China's new property policies will provide only a modest lift

China's new property market policies will provide only a modest demand lift 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Money & Credit, China, September

Strong government bond issuance cushions overall credit growth, but only modest signs that existing fiscal stimulus is gaining traction 

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CHINA+ DATA WRAP 8 October 2024: Japan's nominal wage growth slows

Japan's nominal wage growth slows, as bonuses effect fades

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CHINA+ DATA WRAP 2 October 2024: Korean manufacturing PMI plunges

Plunge in Korean manufacturing PMI raises the likelihood of earlier BoK cut

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CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1 October 2024: Steady sentiment among Japanese large manufacturers

Japanese manufacturers' sentiment is steady

Korean underlying export growth remains strong

Duncan WrigleyChina+