China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- China’s credit grew in May for the first time in six months, as government-bond issuance surged.
- Home-loan demand was still feeble, though the data are clouded by existing-mortgage repayments
- May M1 posted a record dive, as businesses shifted money after, in effect, a regulatory deposit-rate cut.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s May activity data point to a modest uptick in consumer spending on services and appliances.
- Industrial-equipment upgrade policies are propelling fixed asset investment growth.
- Expect little shift in policy direction; the focus will be on the implementation of existing policy.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: The BoJ will reveal detailed plans for bond tapering in July’s meeting.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: The BoJ will reveal detailed plans for bond tapering in July’s meeting.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China activity bolstered by equipment upgrade and home appliance trade-in policies, despite weak property and auto sales
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Government bond issuance props up credit creation, as M1 takes a dive
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ left its policy rate targets unchanged and committed to paring back bond purchases.
- Details of tapering will be revealed in July after consulting the market; the amount is likely “significant”.
- We still expect only one rate hike this year, as consumption will likely take longer to recover.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Producer price reflation hastens in May
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's CPI print points to sluggish domestic demand; Producer price reflation hastens in May
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China will probably temper its response to the EU’s EV tariffs; a full-blown trade war should be avoided.
- Labour Day holiday tourism likely boosted retail sales in May; car sales remain weak amid price cuts.
- May’s jump in government-bond issuance should keep fixed asset investment ticking over.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s CPI inflation was unchanged, as slowing core inflation was offset by firming food prices.
- Producer deflation eased sharply on faster upstream reflation, which bodes well for industrial profitability.
- More stimulus will be needed to kick-start domestic demand; we reiterate our call for an MLF cut in June.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Revised data confirm Japan’s weak Q1 GDP performance, especially private consumption.
- The biggest short-term growth risk is the auto safety-test fiasco, encompassing five more firms.
- China’s May foreign reserves rebounded thanks to currency valuation effects and a larger trade surplus.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: China’s FX reserves rebounded in May, driven mainly by valuation effect of exchange rate
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Japan's revised Q1 GDP still points to miserable domestic demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's robust May export growth largely propelled by shipments to ASEAN
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s exports picked up the pace a notch in May, mainly thanks to stronger trade with ASEAN.
- High-tech exports, such as cars and electronics, are outperforming fading trade in traditional goods.
- A modest recovery in global demand should help China’s growth this year, despite protectionist risks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Japan's regular pay growth quickened to 30-year high
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's regular pay growth quickened to 30-year high
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The May Caixin services activity index hit its highest level for almost a year, thanks to holiday spending.
- Consumers are mostly opting for cheaper products, but this is starting to change as the recovery firms.
- Restrained services inflation is likely to continue, given the cautious optimism about future demand.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s nominal wage growth rose in May as the ShuntÅÂÂ wage settlements started filtering through.
- That said, we don’t expect a significant broadening of wage growth across sectors and to SME workers.
- Stronger base-pay rises will please the BoJ, but the key is whether this translates into higher spending.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
