13 September 2024 China+ Monitor China's domestic economy probably cooled further in August

• China’s early reporting data point to softening domestic demand in August.
• Officials are likely to blame poor activity readings on bad weather, but that’s only part of the story.
• Structural adjustment is dragging on demand, with piecemeal policy support only a partial offset.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 10 September 2024

In one line: China's exports buoyed by strong BRICS and EU demand

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, August

In one line: China's exports buoyed by strong BRICS and EU demand

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: FX Reserves, China, July

In one line: China’s foreign reserves climb in August amid weakening dollar and falling treasury yields

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

11 September 2024 China+ Monitor Chinese import demand sinks, reflecting torpid domestic demand

• China’s exports surprised to the upside, thanks to a surge in EU and BRICS shipments and car demand.
• Imports imploded, reflecting rapidly deteriorating domestic demand; more stimulus is needed.
• Foreign exchange reserves rose in August due to a higher valuation effect on currency and bond assets.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

10 September 2024 China+ Monitor Insipid core consumer inflation confirms sorry demand picture

• China’s disappointing August core consumer inflation data point to persistently weak demand.
• Headline CPI was boosted by a short-term spike in fresh vegetable prices.
• A sharper drop in producer prices reflects excess industrial supply and the laggardly stimulus impact.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: PPI, China, August

The upcoming seasonal rebound in construction activity won’t decisively turn around falling producer prices 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 9 September 2024: China's core consumer inflation slowed

China's slowing core consumer inflation indicates weak demand
Producer deflation steepens as construction activity splutters

Duncan WrigleyChina+

9 September 2024 China+ Monitor PBoC hints at RRR cut, even though it doesn't make sense

• A PBoC official on Thursday hinted that an RRR cut is imminent...
• ...even though the bond market’s performance in August indicates ample liquidity.
• A likely cut to existing-mortgage rates won’t move the needle on consumption.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

6 September 2024 China+ Monitor BoJ intent on policy normalisation, even if wage growth slows

• Japan’s nominal wage growth held up well in July, thanks to both bonuses and regular pay rises.
• Headline wage growth is likely to fade in the coming months, but that won’t shift the BoJ.
• The timing of the BoJ’s next rate hike is dependent on its perception of market risk.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 5 September 2024: Japan's wage surge propelled by bonuses

Japan's wage surge largely propelled by bonuses, but regular pay also making gains

Duncan WrigleyChina+

5 September 2024 China+ Monitor China's services firms cut prices, despite rising costs and activity

• China’s August services PMIs indicate steady demand growth, but activity was hit by bad weather.
• Services firms cut prices, in response to fierce competition, despite rising costs.
• Consumers remain much more keen to spend on tourism rather than big-ticket items or housing.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 4 September 2024: Severe competition drives services price cuts

Severe competition drives services price cuts in China, despite resilient demand

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Caixin manufacturing PMI, China, August

Caixin headline manufacturing index makes only minor revival, dragged by sinking new export orders 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 2 September 2024:Caixin manufacturing index still at low level

Caixin manufacturing index still at low level, despite modest uptick
Korea's manufacturing index robust, but export orders slip

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, August

In one line: Korea’s exports rebound on a WDA basis despite slowing headline growth in August.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Official Non-Mfg PMI, China, August

In one line: China’s services sector rebounds after July’s bad weather, while construction index continues to dive.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Official Mfg PMI, China, August

In one line: China's manufacturing sector hit by rapidly weakening demand in August

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 30 August 2024

In one line: Tokyo consumer inflation surprises on the upside, backing BoJ’s decision to hike.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 27 August 2024

Stagnant profit growth amid China's sluggish demand and ample capacity

China’s MLF rate was unchanged as expected

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+