China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- The summary document from China’s Third Plenum hints at further short-term growth support.
- The reform strategy prioritizes manufacturing and high-tech development.
- But bold reforms to fill the demand hole left by the tanking property sector seem unlikely.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japanese headline exports continue to rise, despite auto shipment disruptions
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s residential sales are staging a modest and narrowly based revival, thanks to policy easing.
- But prices are still mostly falling, and the recovery is fragile given high housing inventories.
- A drawn-out and bumpy rebound is still the most likely scenario, gradually limiting the drag on growth.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s soft June credit data indicated weak demand for funding, except government bonds.
- Higher net long-term household loans probably reflect a revival in pre-owned property sales.
- Money growth continued to be buffeted by fund flows from corporate bank deposits into bond funds.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s Q2 sequential GDP growth was the lowest in two years, hit by fading domestic demand.
- Industrial output growth has been relatively steady, supported by export demand.
- A fiscal policy support top-up is increasingly likely, with monetary easing playing second fiddle.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Chinese GDP misses expectations, hit by dull retail sales, despite resilient industrial output
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Money growth is buffeted by corporate deposit outflows
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: China saw record trade surplus since 1992 on deteriorating import demand and steady export recovery
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China saw record trade surplus since 1992 on deteriorating import demand and steady export recovery
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s exports continued to recover in June, while imports fell, leading to a record trade surplus.
- Shipments to ASEAN were strong, and to the US also picked up; falling imports signal weak demand.
- Near-term exports will be helped by a favorable base; EV export uncertainty due to tariffs will linger.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoK keeps the policy rate on hold, likely to make first cut in October
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoK keeps the policy rate on hold, likely to make first cut in October
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoK held fast on the policy rate yesterday but shifted the focus to rate cuts.
- Disinflation should continue in H2, despite the risks from higher import costs and the weak KRW.
- Chip exports will likely drive GDP growth enough for the BoK to delay its first rate cut until October.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China’s producer deflation persistent, despite misleading improvement in headline
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Chinese Inflation is Cooling, Thanks to an Uneven Recovery
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s consumer inflation remained soft in June, as the 618 e-commerce event proved a damp squib.
- Pork inflation is reviving, though most other food prices are still falling.
- Headline producer price deflation eased in June, but largely thanks to international commodity inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Overall Japanese wage growth remained sluggish in May, though manufacturing pay rose faster.
- China’s foreign reserves were hit by currency- valuation effects and equity market outflows in June.
- The PBoC’s additional OMO flexibility is likely signalling upcoming government-bond sales.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's overall wage growth still sluggish
Improvement narrowly confined to full-time manufacturing workers
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Foreign reserves hit by currency valuation effects and equity market outflows
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC announced last week it will borrow government bonds from primary dealers…
- ...The Bank is likely to short bonds to drive up 10-year yields to 2.5% in H2, supporting CNY.
- The Caixin service s PMI dipped in June, as tourism activity cooled during the off-season.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
