China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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China's official PMIs point to stagnating manufacturing activity
Duncan WrigleyChina+
BoJ raises the policy rate ahead of market expectations
Duncan WrigleyChina+
BoJ raises the policy rate ahead of market expectations
China's official PMIs point to stagnating manufacturing activity & slump in construction demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Politburo calls for incremental policy measures, but no bazooka
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ yesterday announced a policy rate hike, despite cutting its inflation forecast for this year.
- Governor Ueda said the Bank will continue to raise rates if growth and inflation match its expectations.
- The real motivation for the rate increase is probably to minimise the risk of a steep JPY reversal.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s industrial profit growth edged up in June, thanks to better upstream sector profits.
- But two-thirds of industries saw profit growth ease, echoing the weak domestic demand in Q2 GDP.
- More stimulus will be deployed to support growth and put profit’s recovery on a more sustainable path.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Slight uptick in China's industrial profits driven by better performing upstream sectors
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China lowered interest rates and revealed plans to enhance government finances; Korea early trade data propelled by AI-chips demand
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Strong AI-driven exports propel Korea’s early July trade figures
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s loan prime rates and short-term rates were unexpectedly lowered in July; plans revealed to revive local government finances
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The BoJ will probably placate currency investors by cutting back bond-buying on Wednesday...
- ...But will likely stay put on the policy rate, in order to prop up growth and foster demand-pull inflation.
- Tokyo headline inflation edged down in July, though core inflation excluding fresh food inched up.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo consumer inflation unlikely to trouble the BoJ
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo consumer inflation unlikely to trouble the BoJ
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The PBoC's surprise MLF rate cut rams home China's re-orientation towards short-term growth support; fiscal policy tweaks
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC yesterday made an unscheduled 20bp MLF rate cut, following earlier policy rate cuts.
- Policymakers are clearly worried about the H2 outlook, after Q2 GDP growth halved versus Q1.
- Policymakers are likely to stress fiscal support to stabilise growth, but no mega-stimulus.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan’s manufacturing sector is buffeted by auto safety inspections scandal
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's flash manufacturing PMI hit by auto safety scandal
Services sector boost from income tax break likely to prove short-lived
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s July flash manufacturing index sank to the lowest in four months, hit by the auto safety scandal.
- Higher import prices, because of the weak JPY, are driving up business costs.
- The service sector returned to growth, enjoying a likely brief spending boost from a one-off tax rebate.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- - CHINA’S Q2 SLOWING JUSTIFIES MORE TARGETED STIMULUS
- - JAPAN’S FALTERING GROWTH GIVING BOJ A HEADACHE
- - BOK UNLIKELY TO MOVE EARLY, GIVEN CHIP EXPORT BOOM
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC yesterday took markets by surprise with a 10bp policy rate cut to support the economy.
- Policymakers are prioritising growth support after the disappointing Q2 GDP outturn.
- President Xi’s comments confirm the ‘advanced manufacturing first’ reform strategy.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
