China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Duncan Wrigley
China's CPI still in mild deflation, while producer deflation worsens due to weak global oil prices
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Chinese private-firm sentiment is holding up reasonably well, despite the tariff chaos.
- Domestic demand appears resilient, albeit far from robust, in the May PMIs.
- The current targeted policy approach is working, so don’t expect any mega-stimulus.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ will probably leave its bond-buying plan unchanged, after signs the market is functioning better.
- Thursday’s 30-year bond auction went well, after reports the MOF is likely to slow ultra-long bond issuance.
- The ruling coalition is likely to lose seats in the July Upper House election though, sparking debt worries.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s May manufacturing PMI readings diverged, as activity gradually revived post-May 12’s tariff truce.
- Small exporters are likely being hit harder by the trade-policy oscillations, and the détente is already fraying.
- Sentiment has held up surprisingly well, and improved slightly in both manufacturing gauges.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Korean PMI shows domestic demand tanking, but sentiment is improving thanks to tariff war pause
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Tokyo consumer inflation was flat in May, as fresh food inflation cooled but rice inflation soared.
- The new rice-reserve-release plan looks good though, and should lower inflation in the coming months.
- The BoJ is likely to stay put, amid sluggish growth and with little chance of a big upside trade surprise in H2
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s residential sales have cooled gradually since the late-September round of policy support.
- May’s cuts to lending rates should pep up sales, but it won’t be the last round of support.
- Broad inventory likely still has two years to bottom out, though the recovery should begin earlier.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Core inflation ticks up after removal of energy subsidies
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Core inflation nudges up, after energy subsidies end
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s April industrial profits ticked up a notch, helped by the consumer goods and equipment policies.
- But auto profits are still falling, despite rising sales, owing to fierce competition and excess supply.
- The tariff-war impact is likely to be felt in the coming months, hitting the profits of export sectors.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s core consumer inflation ticked up in April, due to the removal of energy subsidies for households.
- The BoJ will probably hold rates steady to help growth, amid tariff uncertainty, and despite elevated inflation.
- Soaring bond yields, partly due to political risks, may yet force the Bank to intervene.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: China's PMI data offers little cause for celebration
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s April retail sales, investment and industrial production point to flagging growth.
- Policymakers saw this coming, hence the PBoC’s May 7 announcement of interest rate and RRR cuts.
- The slowdown stems more from existing issues, with the direct impact of the tariff war still emerging.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China to stick to targeted easing, despite broad cooling in April activity growth
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC yesterday announced targeted policy-rate and RRR cuts to bolster growth ahead of trade talks.
- The interest rate cut came earlier than we expected, capitalising on room created by CNY strength.
- The Bank is guiding to targeted mortgage rate cuts to support the stumbling ‘ordinary’ housing market.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Caixin services PMI points to business jitters over tariff worries
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Industrial profitability improved further in Q1, on the back of strong manufacturing production.
- China’s industrial output was bolstered by stimulus demand and tariff front-loading activity.
- External uncertainty does not bode well for producers’ profit outlook, as overcapacity issues are worsening.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
BoJ's newly bearish tone on inflation risks supports our view that rate hikes are on hold this year
Duncan WrigleyChina+
BoJ's newly bearish tone on inflation risks supports our view that rate hikes are on hold this year
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The Bank of Japan left rates on hold yesterday to no-one’s surprise, but adopted a more bearish outlook.
- Governor Ueda denied that the prospect of delay in attaining the inflation goal means delayed rate hikes.
- It probably does for this year, but Ueda is maintaining room to shift policy in light of trade uncertainty.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
