China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Weekly Monitor Duncan Wrigley
- The fall in Tokyo inflation in June was largely due to energy subsidies kicking in again.
- The BoJ will probably stay put on interest rates, given sluggish growth and trade risks...
- ...Assuming oil prices are reasonably well behaved; markets appear sanguine about geopolitical risk.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s headline national consumer inflation inched down in May, with energy inflation cooling.
- The new rice distribution system is star ting to yield results, but rice prices are still double the target range.
- The BoJ is likely to sit tight on interest rates this year, given the impact of higher US tariffs.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s May steady broad credit growth was based mainly on strong government bond issuance, again.
- Private sector credit demand still dull; the M1 uptick isn’t meaningful and will probably reverse in June.
- The financial system is absorbing rapid government bond issuance with no sign of strain; PBoC has tools.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Chinese private-firm sentiment is holding up reasonably well, despite the tariff chaos.
- Domestic demand appears resilient, albeit far from robust, in the May PMIs.
- The current targeted policy approach is working, so don’t expect any mega-stimulus.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Tokyo consumer inflation was flat in May, as fresh food inflation cooled but rice inflation soared.
- The new rice-reserve-release plan looks good though, and should lower inflation in the coming months.
- The BoJ is likely to stay put, amid sluggish growth and with little chance of a big upside trade surprise in H2
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s core consumer inflation ticked up in April, due to the removal of energy subsidies for households.
- The BoJ will probably hold rates steady to help growth, amid tariff uncertainty, and despite elevated inflation.
- Soaring bond yields, partly due to political risks, may yet force the Bank to intervene.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s Politburo meeting on Friday focused on growth and consumption, rather than tariffs directly.
- US doves want China to rebalance in favour of consumption, but no sign of talks being in the offing.
- Tokyo inflation jumped in April, due to a statistical quirk; the BoJ should stand pat on Thursday.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China acted as the adult in the room on Friday, saying it will not match any further US tariff hikes.
- This is hopefully the escalation off-ramp, paving the way for bilateral talks, probably in several months.
- Still, tariffs will likely remain high, hurting exports, worsening excess supply and so prolonging deflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s all-out response on Friday to US tariff hikes is likely intended to get US-China talks going soon.
- We have cut our 2025 Japan GDP forecast by 0.2pp to 0.8%, due to the US tariff hikes announced last week.
- The BoJ is even more likely to hold fast on May 1, waiting for clarity, as Japan presses for lower tariffs.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Tokyo inflation rose in March, due to higher goods and se vices inflation despite cooling fresh food inflation.
- April inflation is likely to jump after energy subsidies expire, while non-perishable food inflation rises.
- Still, the BoJ, focusing on the impact of higher US auto tariffs, is likely to keep the policy rate steady on May 1.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The structural adjustment in China’s residential property market is inching towards a resolution.
- The government isn’t bailing out developers but is pushing to resolve excess home-supply issues.
- More policy support for residential demand is a likely response to trade-war escalation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s broad credit growth rose in February, on the back of strong government-bond issuance.
- The budgeted expansion of fiscal stimulus this year should sustain vigorous government borrowing.
- Private-sector credit demand is likely to revive gradually, given the haz y property market outlook.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The February CKGSB business conditions index surged to the highest since May 2023.
- Private firms are cheered by policy signals such as President Xi’s meeting and the Q4 stimulus impact.
- But they still expect deflation over the next six months; China’s reflation strategy is mainly to boost demand.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s Politburo meeting on Friday signalled a ‘steady as she goes’ approach to economic policy.
- Tokyo consumer inflation fell in February, as energy subsidies brought down energy inflation.
- Fresh food inflation cooled due to seasonal factors, but overall food inflation is likely to pick up in H1.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s consumer inflation jumped in January, largely on the back of rice and vegetable inflation.
- Core inflation is also creeping up, reinforcing the BoJ’s de termination to keep normalising policy this year.
- But Governor Ueda on Friday signalled a readiness to intervene to prevent yields from getting too far ahead.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s January total social financing growth was propped up by strong government-bond issuance.
- But slowing long-term household loans and developer sales mean more property support is needed.
- The PBoC is probably saving big moves such as rate or RRR cuts to mitigate likely escalating trade tensions.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- BoJ officials continue to indicate their readiness to keep raising rates, despite trade tension worries.
- January Tokyo consumer inflation jumped to the highest since April 2023, because of food inflation.
- Real consumption spending also rose in January, but mainly due to spending on necessities.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- DeepSeek shows China can make cutting edge AI models, even if the training cost claims are murky.
- Chinese AI firms are likely to trail closely behind cutting-edge US leaders and improve in some ways.
- The PBoC’s asymmetric reaction function means the USD CNY downside is larger than the upside.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
