China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Duncan Wrigley
Japan's consumer inflation boosted by food inflation
Korea's WDA-exports drop during the holiday, despite auto shipment surge
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- - CHINA’S CONSUMER SPENDING WILL SLOW POST-HOLIDAY
- - JAPAN’S DOMESTIC DEMAND STILL TRAILING NET EXPORTS
- - BOK LIKELY TO RESUME CUTS, DESPITE POLITICAL MESS
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s consumer inflation jumped in January, largely on the back of rice and vegetable inflation.
- Core inflation is also creeping up, reinforcing the BoJ’s de termination to keep normalising policy this year.
- But Governor Ueda on Friday signalled a readiness to intervene to prevent yields from getting too far ahead.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's lending benchmark rates left unchanged
Duncan WrigleyChina+
PBoC waiting for the trade war to heat up
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- President Xi’s meeting with tech executives on Monday was important for symbolism and policy.
- But it won’t magically solve the macro challenges of sagging profits and weak demand.
- Rapid AI adoption is disruptive for hiring demand; skills mismatches will weigh on the labour market.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's residential price decline steady in holiday season
Japan's real export growth less impressive than headline
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s local governments have begun using special- bond funds to stabilise the residential market.
- But in some cases it’s more a matter of moving money from the left pocket to the right pocket.
- More property-policy tweaking is likely during next month’s Two Sessions; gradual progress in prospect.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Overall credit growth still relatively sturdy, thanks to robust government bond issuance
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s January total social financing growth was propped up by strong government-bond issuance.
- But slowing long-term household loans and developer sales mean more property support is needed.
- The PBoC is probably saving big moves such as rate or RRR cuts to mitigate likely escalating trade tensions.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s consumer goods trade-in scheme drove RMB300B in retail sales, or 0.2% of GDP, last year.
- The expanded scheme is likely to drive 0.7% of GDP this year, thanks to greater fiscal support.
- The industrial equipment upgrade programme should support 0.8% of GDP, unchanged from last year.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s January headline consumer inflation jumped, due to holiday spending and timing effects.
- The holiday bump in inflation is likely to subside after Lunar New Year, with demand still soft.
- Producer prices continued to fall in January, amid signs of industrial excess supply and falling costs.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Producer prices extend their decline with broad price falls
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's headline consumer inflation buoyed by holiday travel and spending; underlying trend still weak for both consumer and producer prices
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China’s foreign reserves rose in January, likely on the back of export front loading ahead of tariff risks
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- BoJ officials continue to indicate their readiness to keep raising rates, despite trade tension worries.
- January Tokyo consumer inflation jumped to the highest since April 2023, because of food inflation.
- Real consumption spending also rose in January, but mainly due to spending on necessities.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's Caixin services activity slows, but sentiment improves
Japanese wages enjoy year-end bonus boost
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s consumption activity was strong over the Lunar New Year holiday period...
- ...But it is likely to slow again afterwards, repeating the pattern established since the reopening.
- January’s Caixin services PMI activity slowed a tad before the holiday, but expectations improved.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China is likely to be restrained in its retaliation to the US tariff hike announced over the weekend.
- A limited trade war is more likely than a near-term grand bargain. Goodwill gestures seem likely.
- The Caixin manufacturing PMI declined in January but held up better than the official gauge.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In much better shape than the headline suggests
Duncan WrigleyChina+
