China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Duncan Wrigley
- Japan’s sluggish September flash manufacturing PMI remained below 50 for a third straight month.
- The September flash services activity index, by contrast, remains strong.
- The rise in the services output price index suggests continued services inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
PBoC's policy support should stoke short-term market sentiment and growth, but won't solve China's structural woes
Japan's flash PMIs show mixed performance
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- PBoC Governor Pan yesterday announced a set of broad monetary policy support measures.
- These are likely to give a short-term lift to markets, and growth, especially if fiscal policy is stepped up.
- But they don’t address the underlying structural issues, meaning growth is likely to slow again.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
14 day reverse repo rate cut isn't additional stimulus, but completion of July's rate cuts
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ stood pat last week , placing greater emphasis on the price impact of currency moves.
- Governor Ueda’s dovish tone on Friday suggests an October rate hike is off the table.
- Mr. Ueda recognises that inflation risks have receded, despite the rise in August national inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
October rate hike seems off the cards
Duncan WrigleyChina+
PBoC official hints that RRR cut will be the next move
Duncan WrigleyChina+
BoJ holds fast, offering rosier view on consumption activity
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Consumer inflation rises on the back of food inflation, notably rice shortages
Duncan WrigleyChina+
BoJ holds steady as Japan's national inflation rises modestly
China's LPRs unchanged
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s August developer-funding figures improved only because of policy support, namely loans.
- Home sales remained weak in August, as the impact of the May policy support is fading.
- A long, grinding recovery is in prospect, with no sign of a change in approach from drip-fed support.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s August headline credit growth was pretty steady, but due only to government-bond issuance...
- ...Private credit demand looks weak, and on-balance-sheet bill financing was suspiciously large.
- The PBoC is preparing “incremental policy” measures, likely an RRR cut and structural tools.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s retail sales growth faded in August, as people held back on big-ticket purchases.
- Bad weather delayed construction, despite a large funding boost from government-bond issuance.
- Policymakers are unlikely to hit the policy panic button, even if it risks missing 2024’s growth target.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Domestic demand fades in August, with fiscal policy slow to gain traction
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Government bond surge props up broad credit growth
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Recent BoJ policymaker statements signal intent to keep raising rates if warranted by inflation.
- The carry trade appears to have largely unwound, but lower oil prices could slow the pace of rate hikes.
- Revised Q2 GDP growth was partly bolstered by short-term factors; Q3 growth is likely to slow.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s early reporting data point to softening domestic demand in August.
- Officials are likely to blame poor activity readings on bad weather, but that’s only part of the story.
- Structural adjustment is dragging on demand, with piecemeal policy support only a partial offset.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s disappointing August core consumer inflation data point to persistently weak demand.
- Headline CPI was boosted by a short-term spike in fresh vegetable prices.
- A sharper drop in producer prices reflects excess industrial supply and the laggardly stimulus impact.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The upcoming seasonal rebound in construction activity won’t decisively turn around falling producer prices
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's slowing core consumer inflation indicates weak demand
Producer deflation steepens as construction activity splutters
Duncan WrigleyChina+
