China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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In one line: China industrial profits 2025: first positive turn in four years, but the path forward remains challenging
In one line: BoJ stands pats in January, but inflation momentum keeps tightening chances intact.
In one line: Japan’s PMIs jump in January, pointing to firmer labour demand, especially in manufacturing.
In one line: Japan CPI slump driven by energy and fresh food; underlying inflation remains sticky
In one line: Korea’s 20-day exports rebound buoyed by base effects; monthly momentum actually slowed in January.
In one line: Sharp drop in Tokyo inflation largely due to one-off factors; won't change BoJ outlook
- Tokyo headline inflation fell 0.5pp to 1.5% in January, but driven mainly by one-off factors.
- Inflation should slow this year, be cause of cooling food prices, despite the recent bout of JPY weakness.
- The BoJ is likely to next hike rates in Q4, providing currency moves are manageable.
- US allies’ visits to China signal geopolitical hedging, but don’t expect genuine economic integration.
- Beijing appears to be organising these visits to isolate Washington, judging by who initiated the invitations.
- Middle powers are hedging against US unpredictability, but economic fragmentation will lead to higher inflation.
- Private firms are turning more optimistic about profits, with good reason, but only in certain sectors...
- ...The AI boom, green energy transition and industrial upgrading are lifting profits for related sectors.
- But Q4 consumer sentiment remained glum, indicating continued sluggish domestic demand this year.
- China’s A-share markets are surging, despite weak private-sector business sentiment and profits…
- …and are likely to continue to benefit from ample liquidity, from retail investors and overseas earnings.
- Regulators would likely intervene, though, if they view the market rise as too fast or overly based on leverage.
- The BoJ held rates on Friday, despite rising bond and currency pressure, linked to fiscal policy worries.
- PM Takaichi should emerge from the February 8 election stronger, allowing her to cut taxes.
- The likely tax cut on food will drag inflation by 1pp in 2026, and can be funded from rising tax revenue.
In one line: Japan's overall exports rise, despite falling shipments to the US
- - CHINA SEES LESS URGENCY TO STABILISE PROPERTY MARKET
- - BOJ WON'T HURRY RATE HIKES, DESPITE SNAP ELECTION
- - BOK LIKELY HOPES TO SQUEEZE IN ONE MORE RATE CUT
In one line: China’s LPR on hold in January; targeted structural rate cuts unclog credit supply and hopefully induce more loan demand.
In one line: China inflation was firmer in December, but sustained reflation remains challenging
In one line: Bank of Korea drops its easing bias as currency stability takes priority
In one line: Diversification keeps China exports float in 2025; December export upticks largely support by ASEAN & BRICS demand
In one line: China’s PPI sees firmer monthly momentum, but sustained reflation remains challenging
- Chinese policymakers apparently see little prospect of a short-term residential property-market recovery.
- The home provident fund reform is unlikely to boost property demand, barring a huge funding injection.
- Developer credit risk remains high, as home sales income falls and policy support is adjusted.
- Policymakers won’t be flustered by the Q4 GDP growth slippage, hit by flagging investment and consumption.
- They can bank on solid export growth, thanks to burgeoning competitiveness in higher-tech products.
- Quasi-fiscal policy support backed by the policy banks is still coming through; more property support is likely.
