China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Duncan Wrigley
- Japan’s consumer inflation rose in May, due to the phasing out of household energy subsidies.
- Cost-push inflation is set to return in H2, reflecting the lagged impact of the weak JPY.
- But the June flash PMIs point to flagging domestic economic activity; what a headache for the BoJ!
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng on Wednesday hinted the Bank is likely to start bond trading.
- The definition of M1 will probably be broadened, after the dramatic plunge in May.
- The Bank expects credit growth to remain slow, given China’s changing economic growth model.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's exports buoyed by US and Chinese demand, despite falling shipments to the EU
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s credit grew in May for the first time in six months, as government-bond issuance surged.
- Home-loan demand was still feeble, though the data are clouded by existing-mortgage repayments
- May M1 posted a record dive, as businesses shifted money after, in effect, a regulatory deposit-rate cut.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s May activity data point to a modest uptick in consumer spending on services and appliances.
- Industrial-equipment upgrade policies are propelling fixed asset investment growth.
- Expect little shift in policy direction; the focus will be on the implementation of existing policy.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China activity bolstered by equipment upgrade and home appliance trade-in policies, despite weak property and auto sales
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Government bond issuance props up credit creation, as M1 takes a dive
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ left its policy rate targets unchanged and committed to paring back bond purchases.
- Details of tapering will be revealed in July after consulting the market; the amount is likely “significant”.
- We still expect only one rate hike this year, as consumption will likely take longer to recover.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China will probably temper its response to the EU’s EV tariffs; a full-blown trade war should be avoided.
- Labour Day holiday tourism likely boosted retail sales in May; car sales remain weak amid price cuts.
- May’s jump in government-bond issuance should keep fixed asset investment ticking over.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Revised data confirm Japan’s weak Q1 GDP performance, especially private consumption.
- The biggest short-term growth risk is the auto safety-test fiasco, encompassing five more firms.
- China’s May foreign reserves rebounded thanks to currency valuation effects and a larger trade surplus.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's revised Q1 GDP still points to miserable domestic demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's robust May export growth largely propelled by shipments to ASEAN
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s exports picked up the pace a notch in May, mainly thanks to stronger trade with ASEAN.
- High-tech exports, such as cars and electronics, are outperforming fading trade in traditional goods.
- A modest recovery in global demand should help China’s growth this year, despite protectionist risks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The May Caixin services activity index hit its highest level for almost a year, thanks to holiday spending.
- Consumers are mostly opting for cheaper products, but this is starting to change as the recovery firms.
- Restrained services inflation is likely to continue, given the cautious optimism about future demand.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s May manufacturing PMIs sent mixed signals, reflecting the uneven recovery.
- Production continues to power ahead of demand, which 60% of manufacturers view as “insufficient”.
- Stimulus funds have yet to boost construction, but steelmakers are optimistic about the year ahead.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- - CHINA GETS SERIOUS ABOUT PROPERTY SECTOR SUPPORT
- - BOJ CAUGHT BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE
- - BOK LIKELY TO DELAY RATE RISE AMID EXPORT BOOM
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, May
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's Caixin PMI rises, thanks to robust consumer goods output
Korean manufacturing PMI hits a two-year high
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s new property-market measures aim to stabilise the sector, rather than return to the boom times.
- The focus on housing-inventory reduction is the right direction, but the funding so far is too small.
- First-tier cities will probably bottom out first, but overall a drawn-out rebound is still on the cards.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s consumer inflation continued to slow in April, with a notable cooling in food inflation.
- The phased removal of energy subsidies, then higher import costs, will lift inflation in the rest of the year.
- Japan is still far from seeing sustained inflation based on consumption growth; no rate hike until Q4.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
