China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Chartbook Daily Monitor Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)
- - CHINA’S ACTIVITY TICKING OVER ENOUGH
- - BOJ SIGNALS BOND BUYING TO SLOW
- - STRONG EXPORTS ALLOW BOK’S MORE HAWKISH STANCE
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s CPI inflation was unchanged, as slowing core inflation was offset by firming food prices.
- Producer deflation eased sharply on faster upstream reflation, which bodes well for industrial profitability.
- More stimulus will be needed to kick-start domestic demand; we reiterate our call for an MLF cut in June.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s nominal wage growth rose in May as the ShuntÅÂÂ wage settlements started filtering through.
- That said, we don’t expect a significant broadening of wage growth across sectors and to SME workers.
- Stronger base-pay rises will please the BoJ, but the key is whether this translates into higher spending.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The BoK stood pat in May, citing rising inflation risks due to strengthening economic conditions.
- The rate-cut timing is less certain now due to volatile expectations of the Fed’s move and geopolitical risk .
- Japan’s flash PMI surveys show tentative signs of growth broadening to manufacturing.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Korean 20-day exports slowed sharply in May because of working-day effects.
- The underlying trend is actually improving after adjustment. Chip shipments remain the major driver.
- We expect no change at the upcoming BoK meeting but have pushed back our first rate cut to Q4.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s preliminary Q1 GDP surprised the market to the downside, with growth turning negative.
- Weak domestic demand, such as business investment and consumption, was the culprit.
- The sluggish growth does not warrant an early rate hike, as markets suggest; we stick to our Q4 call.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China consumer prices rose in April, after volatility in Q1 caused by holidays and base effects.
- The CPI changes were driven by higher energy and core inflation, but domestic demand was still feeble.
- The PBoC will use “flexible, precise and effective” monetary policy to promote reflation.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Korea’s WDA exports have grown solidly in recent months, pointing to a sustained recovery in demand.
- Semiconductors accounted for 70% of growth in April; both US and Chinese demand was resilient.
- Weak currency played a role in supporting exports; the level of export values is still below that in 2022.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- - CHINA’S RECOVERY MAKING HEADWAY
- - JPY PRESSURE GIVING THE BOJ A HEADACHE
- - STRONG EXPORTS LIFT KOREAN GROWTH
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s loan prime rates were left unchanged in April after the PBoC’s earlier decision to hold the MLF.
- The PBoC has less room to cut rates in the near term as market bets on a delayed Fed cut rate increase.
- Early Korean export data show strong memory-chip demand; US shipments remain solid.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s exports grew solidly in March, thanks to burgeoning Chinese demand and a weaker JPY.
- Demand from the US and EU slowed, car-related shipments fell sharply, but chip exports soared.
- The export recovery will be safeguarded by the ICT upturn, while capital goods demand should improve.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
