China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Weekly Monitor Global Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)
- China's July retail sales bounce is misleading; it is simply a recovery from June's unexpected fall.
- Consumption has been beset by socioeconomic factors: jobs, income, policies, social norms.
- Demand-side policies will remain targeted; Western- style handouts to consumers are unlikely.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s Q2 GDP surprised to the upside; economic recovery is on a firmer footing than expected.
- Consumption ended four consecutive quarterly falls in Q2 on the back of first real wage gains since 2022.
- The BoJ is delighted to see more evidence of wage-price spiral; it provided the basis for July’s hike.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The US has proposed new tariffs on Chinese imports, which will have limited impact, in our view.
- Lithium batteries likely will be most affected, among other items targeted, with the US more exposed to it.
- China’s manufacturing activity shrank unexpectedly in May, suggesting more stimulus might be needed.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s industrial profit growth was unchanged in April; the recovery is weaker than previously thought.
- A slowing reflation cycle is to blame, but also excess capacity and rising input costs.
- Manufacturing profits remain solid, but expect more policy support for the economic recovery.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s Q1 GDP grew solidly, thanks to vigorous manufacturing output and services growth.
- Services growth is broadening to business services, but the consumption recovery is relatively lacklustre.
- China will follow its own reform path at the Third Plenum, rather than adopting Western prescriptions.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
