In one line: Adverse weather shrinks China’s manufacturing activity; Korea’s WDA export growth slowdown likely temporary
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Chinese export growth surprised the market to the downside, as monthly momentum faded in July.
- Export recovery was dual-track, driven by high-tech demand, while low-tech shipments remain dull.
- Bond-selling by Chinese banks indicates short-term market intervention, probably under PBoC guidance.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Weak Korean export rebound was disappointing; working-day adjusted growth actually eased sharply.
- Deeper dive in US shipment growth was the driver, coupled with a double-digit plunge in car exports.
- Firming KRW and easing cost burden give BoK more room to cut rates, but unlikely to hasten the timeline.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Both July manufacturing PMIs indicate declining activity, especially the dip in the Caixin PMI.
- Extreme weather is only partly to blame; domestic demand is weak, as the growth model is revamped.
- China will keep adjusting incremental stimulus until growth is back on track at the “about 5%” target.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s industrial profit growth edged up in June, thanks to better upstream sector profits.
- But two-thirds of industries saw profit growth ease, echoing the weak domestic demand in Q2 GDP.
- More stimulus will be deployed to support growth and put profit’s recovery on a more sustainable path.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Slight uptick in China's industrial profits driven by better performing upstream sectors
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China lowered interest rates and revealed plans to enhance government finances; Korea early trade data propelled by AI-chips demand
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Strong AI-driven exports propel Korea’s early July trade figures
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s loan prime rates and short-term rates were unexpectedly lowered in July; plans revealed to revive local government finances
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China saw record trade surplus since 1992 on deteriorating import demand and steady export recovery
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China saw record trade surplus since 1992 on deteriorating import demand and steady export recovery
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s property market is still in the doldrums; prices and transactions are falling at pace.
- The secondary market is suffering bigger price falls due to higher inventory levels and consumer choice.
- The impact of re-lending facilities will not be felt immediately due to implementation problems.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- - CHINA’S ACTIVITY TICKING OVER ENOUGH
- - BOJ SIGNALS BOND BUYING TO SLOW
- - STRONG EXPORTS ALLOW BOK’S MORE HAWKISH STANCE
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s loan prime rates left unchanged in June amid record low NIMs for banks
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China’s loan prime rates left unchanged in June amid record low NIMs for banks
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: The BoJ will reveal detailed plans for bond tapering in July’s meeting.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: The BoJ will reveal detailed plans for bond tapering in July’s meeting.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Producer price reflation hastens in May
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's CPI print points to sluggish domestic demand; Producer price reflation hastens in May
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s CPI inflation was unchanged, as slowing core inflation was offset by firming food prices.
- Producer deflation eased sharply on faster upstream reflation, which bodes well for industrial profitability.
- More stimulus will be needed to kick-start domestic demand; we reiterate our call for an MLF cut in June.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
