China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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china japan
- The BoJ held the policy rate steady at 0.75% yesterday, amid uncertainty in the Middle East.
- Governor Ueda’s mixed message on policy direction could invite speculation on USDJPY.
- We think a June rate hike is still on the table, as long as prospects for a lasting ceasefire have improved by then.
- China’s industrial profits rose in Q1 on lower costs and higher revenues from precautionary front-loading.
- Producer reflation supported the rise, but was more evident in metals and upstream energy sectors.
- Profit growth will face pressure from war-related costs, fading front-loading and weak domestic demand.
- - CHINA'S Q1 GROWTH SPURT COULD BE HIGH-WATER MARK
- - BOJ WILL LIKELY HOLD POLICY RATE AT APRIL'S MEETING
- - KOREA'S CHIP EXPORT RISE OFFSETS OIL IMPORT BILL
- China’s LPRs and de-facto policy rate were unchanged in April, amid pressure on banks’ margins.
- Banks started a new round of deposit-rate cuts, given the liquidity glut in the system from weak loan demand.
- The MoF is offering ultra-long special bonds at record levels, taking advantage of the risk-averse mood.
In one line: China's lopsided Q1 GDP growth bump likely the year's high-water mark
- China’s GDP growth rose to 5.0% in Q1, but it was highly dependent on robust exports...
- ...Which are likely to slow as the oil price shock hits global growth.
- Real household spending slowed and underlying consumption activity remains sluggish.
- China’s trade surplus narrowed sharply in March, as import strength outpaced exports, hit by payback.
- The import surge was led by high-tech items, with price effects outweighing geopolitical energy dynamics.
- Exports were distorted by LNY effects, but underlying momentum was notably weaker for the Global South.
In one line: Private sector credit showing early but uneven improvement
- China’s March credit data, albeit soft overall, points to a tentative private credit revival in select areas.
- Rising pre-existing home sales likely drove mortgage demand; bottoming out is happening albeit slowly.
- Policy-driven infrastructure investment probably supported improving underlying corporate credit.
- China has ramped up energy production from alternative sources in the wake of the Iran war.
- China has seen limited trade spillover; East Asian PMIs show a common theme of higher oil-driven input costs.
- Hong Kong’s PMI plunged on war uncertainty, with price pressures yet to feed through.
In one line: China’s big drop mainly due to global market volatility, rather than domestic economy
In one line: China’s manufacturing PMI buoyed by post-holiday seasonality; oil price shock hits input prices
In one line: China's manufacturing activity resilient, despite jump in energy-related costs
CHINA+ OUTLOOK
- CHINA RELATIVELY INSULATED FROM OIL-PRICE SPIKE
- BOJ WOULD HIKE EARLY IN A $150/BL OIL SCENARIO
- KOREA'S CHIP EXPORT RISE OFFSETS OIL IMPORT BILL
In one line: Japan's inflation fell in February, ahead of oil price surge; Services firms' sentiment dives to mid-2020 level
In one line: LPRs steady; PBoC aims for "price recovery"
In one line: BoJ on hold amid oil shock risks and divided inflation views
Japan's exports slow due to holiday calendar effects
Chip and electrical machinery shipments rise
China's consumer spending was boosted by longer holiday
infrastructure investment rebounds thanks to policy support
Industrial output lifted by export demand
In one line: Japan exports spike on Lunar New Year boost, strong momentum unlikely to last.
