EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: Front-running a near-certain cut by the Fed later today; at least one more to come in Q4. 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

19 September 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor BI's surprise September cut likely to be followed by 50bp more in Q4

• Bank Indonesia surprised yesterday by starting its easing cycle, hours ahead of the Fed’s own first cut.
• We’ve added a few more rate cuts to our outlook, and now see the BI rate ending 2025 at 4.75%.
• Blame a gold rush for India’s deficit blowout in August, which masked a few key silver linings.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, August

• In one line: Post-duty cut spike in gold imports hits the deficit hard, overshadowing a more confident recovery in real import demand.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: WPI, India, August

• In one line: Down to a four-month low, thanks to a broad-based deceleration.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 17 September 2024

A solid month of August for Indonesian exports, but downside risks linger
Recovery in Singapore's semiconductor exports cushions August headline

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

18 September 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor How much can we trust the recovery in Indonesian exports?

• Indonesian export growth rose to a 19-month high in August, but this leap faces major downside risks.
• Singapore’s exports are still benefiting from the continued recovery in electronics demand.
• RBI Governor Das sounds less adamant that rate cuts require 4% long-run CPI; all eyes on October.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia