- In one line: Deficit hit by lagged oil-price effects, which will now unwind.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Upstream core price pressures are now clearly reviving.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Food CPI in India will soon tank on base effects, but don’t underestimate the improving monthly story…
- …Inflation expectations remain unfazed, though more signs are pointing to a U-turn in core inflation.
- Average inflation should still fall to 4.6% this year, but we have raised our 2025 forecast to 4.5%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Tapping an RRR hike to cool the property market.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The CBC made no change to its policy rate yesterday, but raised its RRR by 0.25pp...
- ...To stymie the flow of credit to the property sector, which has brushed off previous cooling measures.
- We expect the CBC to stay on hold, but upside risks to inflation might provoke another hike in Q3.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Some green shoots on food inflation; IP appears to be breaking out of its recent stagnation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Bank of Thailand left its policy rate at 2.50%; dissenting votes for a 25bp cut fell to one, from two.
- Growth is the area that is most likely to disappoint, relative to the MPC’s rose-tinted expectations…
- …Its reasons for optimism are short-lived in nature; we still consider two 25bp cuts this year possible.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Indonesia’s Ramadan demand this year ends with a whimper
Malaysian retail sales growth slows in April, despite friendly base effects
We’ll swallow the Philippines' big April deficit, as imports showed signs of life
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We see the recent diesel-subsidy rationalisation in Malaysia as a net negative for retail sales growth...
- ...The impact on inflation is likely to be stronger, pushing the headline rate above 3% from June.
- Retail sales growth in Indonesia plunged into the red in April; this year’s Ramadan splurge was limp.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Fret not, the recovery in electronics exports is still in place.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
An RBI cut in August now certainly looks off the table
The policy-induced upswing in Thai inflation shouldn’t bother the MPC
Don’t put too much stock into the April leap in Philippine sales
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Formal dissent in the RBI grew this month, but we’ll now likely have to wait until October for the first cut.
- The base-effect and policy-driven upswing in Thai CPI should be ignored by the MPC this week.
- Taiwanese export growth disappointed in May, but not enough to derail the overall recovery.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Vehicle sales fail to offset retail weakness in Singapore.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Goods inflation U-turns, while services inflation remains sticky.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwanese headline inflation was above the consensus in May, as goods disinflation U-turned...
- …Services inflation remained above 2%, on high rental prices and a still-tight labour market.
- A better growth outlook could spur the CBC to raise rates next week to combat inflation expectations.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Tough start to Q2 for Singaporean consumption
No breach of the BSP’s inflation target range to see here
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Retail sales growth in Singapore disappointed hugely in April, falling to a new post-pandemic low...
- …We suspect that a shift to overseas spending was the main culprit, as income growth still looks strong.
- The risk of CPI re-breaching the BSP’s target range continues to wane, on fading non-core pressures.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
ASEAN’s main exporters are finally staging a revival… slowly
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BJP’s disappointing result in the 2024 election means the risk of coalition politics in India is back.
- The PMI for ASEAN rebounded well in May, thanks to the fragile recovery of the region’s key exporters.
- Indonesia’s softer-than-expected May CPI bolsters our dovish 2024 view on rates and inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
