Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- The minutes of the RBI’s October meeting suggest a possible pathway to a 4-to-2 cut in December.
- Core IP growth should bounce modestly in September, but largely on a base-effect technicality.
- Taiwanese GDP growth likely slowed further in Q3, to 3.4%, as support from domestic demand wanes.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
India’s PMIs start Q4 on a cautiously better note, after the September carnage
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s flash PMIs for October show a bounce in both surveys from the painful September plunge.
- The moderating trend from the Q1 highs is still intact, though; the same is true for leading gauges.
- Both surveys suggest that hiring is going gang-busters, but we aren’t moved, looking at the EPFO.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A SECOND BOT CUT IN DECEMBER IS TOUCH-AND-GO
- …THE RBI TURNS ‘NEUTRAL’; ALL EYES ON Q3 GDP
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- An overdue revival in manufacturing drove almost all of Singapore’s hot advance Q3 GDP surprise…
- …But this may be a one-off, as export growth likely will cool soon; the construction outlook is still solid.
- Adverse export base effects should see trade hitting India’s Q3 GDP; we’ll be downgrading our 6.4% call.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Bank of Thailand finally joined the regional easing wave, surprising with a 25bp policy rate cut…
- …Our dovish view was vindicated, and we still expect another cut in December if Q3 GDP disappoints.
- We reckon it’s too early to rule out a shift to 50bp cuts by the BSP; policy remains extremely tight.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Thank a big reversal in the August leap in gold imports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The overdue turn we’ve been waiting for; expect another follow-up cut in December.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Many more cuts to come, and potentially larger ones from December.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Bank of Thailand finally joined the regional easing wave, surprising with a 25bp policy rate cut…
- …Our dovish view was vindicated, and we still expect another cut in December if Q3 GDP disappoints.
- We reckon it’s too early to rule out a shift to 50bp cuts by the BSP; policy remains extremely tight.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Blame the continued reversal of helpful food base effects; m/m trends are still improving.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian export growth weakened in September, highlighting the limits of the commodities boost…
- …This price lift is also fading on the import side, increasingly exposing sluggish real import demand.
- We see the current account deficit at 0.8% of GDP this year, and trade should hit Q3 GDP by 0.2pp.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indian CPI predictably bounced sharply last month as favourable food base effects waned further…
- …Short-term food-price pressures are still broadly improving, and CPI expectations pose no worries.
- IP growth saw red ink in August for the first time since late-2022; the outlook remains grim.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Primary articles inflation bounces on lower base effects, but underlying inflation remains muted.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: So much for the RBI’s “resilient” growth outlook.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwanese export growth fell sharply in September, highlighting the risks of its growing US reliance…
- …But this should be a blip, as for ward-looking indicators remain solid, especially for chips.
- CPI has fallen below the CBC’s 2% alert level for the first time in a while, but cuts are still off the table.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Philippine exports are finally staging a real comeback at the margin
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
No cut, but the sea change in RBI policy is here
Indonesian retail sales growth recovers to a five-month high
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
