TAIWAN’S PUNCHY Q1 GDP IS AS GOOD AS IT’LL GET
- …ELECTION TAILWINDS IN INDONESIA’S Q1 ARE IRREPLICABLE
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Exports—alone—steal the show in Q1, papering over a continued slowdown in domestic demand.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s Q1 GDP beat expectations, with growth slowing only modestly to 7.8% from 8.6% in Q4…
- …But an unsustainable jump in exports was the lone bright spot; domestic demand continues to slow.
- The slowdown in investment growth is intensifying, while private consumption remains woefully subpar.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The sustainability of two-way trade growth in Vietnam is our key concern, not the big May deficit.
- A modest bounce-back in GDP growth for Q2 looks secured, but households remain a huge weak spot.
- Inflation will flirt more closely with the 4.5% ceiling in June, but this should be the peak this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singapore’s headline and core inflation both appear to be stabilising, but unfortunately at a high rate...
- ...above the MAS’ comfort level, implying that any loosening of policy would be in Q4, at the earliest.
- Malaysian headline inflation is likely to rise from now on, averaging slightly over 2% for the year.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A reassuring bounce in exports narrows the Songkran-adjusted deficit substantially.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Malaysian inflation comes in at 1.8% for a third consecutive month
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Expect growth to struggle for the rest of Q2.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
India’s lofty manufacturing PMI is becoming more well-rounded
India’s unreliable flash services PMI is still plateauing
Higher utilities inflation in Singapore offsets food disinflation in April
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Our final forecast for India’s Q1 GDP next week sees growth slow to 6.2%, from 8.4% in Q4…
- …The hits should come from an import bounce, weaker public spending and a plunge in valuables.
- Taiwanese retail sales will remain subdued for the rest of Q2, but a late -H2 recovery is in the works.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian export growth rose sharply in April, but this was mostly down to favourable base effects…
- …With this support likely to wane in coming months, all eyes are on the recovery in electronics exports.
- BI stood pat yesterday, after April’s shock hike; the economy has yet to feel the full force of this cycle.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Thailand smashed expectations in Q1, as it fell trivially to 1.5% from 1.7% in Q4…
- …But the consumption-and inventories-led quarterly bounce is dubious and unsustainable.
- Merchandise trade and investment went from bad to worse, though the latter should revive from Q2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Don’t hang your hat on Thailand’s market-beating Q1 GDP print
Malaysian export recovery still in play despite headline trade figures likely falling in May
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Improvement in Singaporean export growth down to base effects
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Base effects flattered Singaporean NODX growth in April, while real production is disappointing.
- The long-running slide in urban unemployment in India appears finally to have stalled in Q1.
- Remittances growth in the Philippines remains subpar; momentum is waning and the peso lift will fade.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP yesterday left the target reverse repo rate at 6.50%, with its statement still sounding hawkish…
- …But Governor Remolona was more dove than hawk, saying a rate cut in August is now possible.
- The BSP cut its 2024 CPI forecast to 3.8%; it’s been behind the curve and can afford to shoot lower.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
